Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 301937
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
237 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

REMNANTS OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOT MIXING OUT ENTIRELY UNDER
STRATUS AND FOG NW OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING, AND OTHER AREAS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
POOLED MOISTURE AT THE SFC RICH ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY AND
TEMPS TONIGHT DROPPING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.  FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL WARMING
BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CAPPING AND AN OVERALL
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY FLATTENS THE PREVAILING RIDGE AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.  MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
CONCERNING TIMING THIS FAR OUT...BUT TYPICAL TREND IN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO IS USUALLY SLOWER.  AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW.

WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S EACH DAY.  WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...THOUGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PIA IMPROVING SLOWLY AS THE FOG FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
LIFT OUT AND BURN OFF. BMI FINALLY COMING UP TO MVFR. TEMPOS FOR
MVFR AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE HOURS NW OF THE BOUNDARY, VFR THROUGH
THE EVENING/POST SUNSET. AROUND MIDNIGHT, EXPECT THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE FOG. HAVE STARTED THAT TREND WITHOUT DROPPING THE VIS TOO
MUCH. AREAS MAY SEE IFR TOWARDS DAWN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...WITH A SOUTHERLY FETCH MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE DECAYING
BOUNDARY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS



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