Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 142100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailed across central and
southeast IL today with stratocumulus clouds 3-4k ft more
prevalent along and south of I-72. Weak 1020 mb high pressure was
settling into central IL this afternoon and providing light to
calm winds. Temps at mid afternoon ranged from the upper 20s north
of Peoria, to 34F at Lawrenceville. A short wave trof moving se
into central WI/IA/NE will pivot se across central IL overnight
and exit into the ohio river valley during Friday morning. Limited
moisture with this system so just mostly cloudy skies tonight and
a chance of flurries northern cwa overnight into early Fri
morning. Lows overnight in the lower 20s with light winds this
evening becoming WSW 5-10 mph during overnight.

Subsidence behind short wave trof moving into the TN river valley
during Friday afternoon to allow skies to become partly sunny over
CWA. WSW winds 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph on Friday with
highs in the mid 30s from I-74 ne and near 40F far SW CWA and
southeast IL.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

A quiet/dry stretch of weather expected Friday night through Sat
night across central/se IL as high pressure drifts east from the
southern plains and across the southeast states. SW winds and
ample sunshine Saturday to warm temps into the upper 40s and lower
50s which is 10-15F above normal for mid December.

A weather system developing over the southern plains sat night
will eject ne into the mid MS river valley during Sunday. This
will likely spread rain showers ne across the CWA during Sunday
morning and could start as a mix early Sunday morning over
northern CWA. But little or no snow accumulations expected as much
of this precipitation falls as rain. Lows Sat night in the low to
mid 30s. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 40s. A much weaker system
ejecting ne over area overnight sunday night into Monday morning
may bring isolated light rain/snow showers. Highs Monday range
from mid 40s northern cWA to lower 50s in southeast IL.

Another stretch of quiet/dry wx expected from Tue through Thu
morning as high pressure settles into the mid MS river valley on
Wed. Above normal temps continue with highs in the mid 40s to
around 50F Wed/Thu while lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Models show another stronger low pressure system ejecting ne into
the Midwest later Thu and Thu night bringing next chance of
precipitation with much colder air following this system late next


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Weak 1022 mb high pressure over nw IL will drift southeast over
the Ohio river valley by 06Z/midnight tonight. Then an upper level
short wave trof will slide se across central IL overnight and
exit se of the area by mid morning Friday. Moisture is lacking
with this system so no precipitation expected over central IL
airports. Broken MVFR clouds of 2.5-3k ft along I-74 will lift to
VFR during the afternoon of 3-4k ft and scatter out at times.
Expect scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds of 3-5k ft
this evening and become more broken overnight, and scatter out
again between 14-16Z Friday as subsidence and dry air arrive in
wake of short wave trof. North winds 4-8 kts early this afternoon
will veer WNW late this afternoon and weaken to 3-5 kts by sunset.
Expect WSW winds 5-10 kts overnight to become WNW and increase to
10-15 kts during mid morning Friday with gusts 15-20 kts by late
Fri morning.




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