Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 011547
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS AND
REDUCE THUNDER MENTION TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TRACKED WELL TO
THE S/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. FURTHER NORTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE KILX CWA. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO
IOWA...AS THESE WILL LIKELY SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY...BUT OVERALL TREND IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HAVE LOWERED OR ELIMINATED POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN GONE WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEB TO CENTRAL MO WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE PCPN REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECT CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO
TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS LINE WITH SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO I-74 WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE...SO
LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY SO WILL
SEE EASTERLY WINDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS RUN OF MODELS HAS MIXED NEWS.  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
MAY IN FACT SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY PDS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. AS A
RESULT, THE FORECAST IS A BIT TROUBLESOME FROM A PERSISTENCE STAND
POINT. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF A QUASI-
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES INTERACT
AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON.  LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS WHAT
REMAINS AN ISSUE. ALL MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT AND HAVE CONTINUITY
ISSUES BETWEEN THE QPF DEPICTION AND THE SFC FRONTAL ANALYSIS IN THE
WIND FIELDS.  OSCILLATING NORTH AND SOUTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IS NOT
HELPING TO FIND ANY ABSOLUTES.  SO, FOR THIS FORECAST RUN, HAVE
WORKED THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT INTO SLIGHTLY UPPING THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I70...BUT ALSO SOME MINOR
INCREASES IN CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I72.

OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  FOR THURS THROUGH SAT, HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE SILENT SLIGHT
POPS OR NONE FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE ROUGHLY
FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE.  TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND...THE
SUPERBLEND IS HANGING ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER
THEM SOMEWHAT AS THE WAVE AT 500MB IS BROAD, OPEN, AND PRODUCING
DIFF RESULTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SOME LIGHT FOG IS EFFECTING SOME SITES THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
EFFECT ALL SITES FOR A COUPLE HOURS...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT FOG TIL 14Z. AFTER THIS...BASIC CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES
WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CU AROUND 4KFT WITH AN OVERCAST MID DECK
AROUND 8KFT. MODELS ADVERTISING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOME OF
THE SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SO NOT THINK
THE CONVECTION WILL GET TO PIA AND BMI. SO HAVE A VCTS WITH A
BROKEN CIG AROUND 4KFT FOR SPI/DEC/CMI. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL
LAST ALL NIGHT SO HAVE VCTS ENDING BETWEEN 03 AND 05Z...FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES. BEYONDTHAT...WIND
DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TODAY. SO
HAVE PIA/BMI/CMI WITH EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPI AND
DEC WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING
EASTERLY TONIGHT.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN



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