Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 172001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Weak flow and lots of sun has allowed temperatures this afternoon to
get to around 70 over most of the area, except for southeast IL
where temps are hanging in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow should
be different, with southeasterly winds and plenty of sunshine for
another mild spring day. Temps are expected to get into the mid
70s across the whole CWA tomorrow ahead of the next weather system
moving toward the area. Clear skies and light winds tonight
should allow temps to fall back down into the upper 40s overnight.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

A weather system will move into the Great Lakes region tomorrow
night and drag a cold front into parts of IL late tomorrow night.
The chance of showers and storms will mainly be in the northwest
parts of the CWA late tomorrow night and then as the front slides
south into other parts of the CWA on Wed, the chance of precip
will drop south of I-72, reaching toward I-70.

Then another weather system will move toward the area along with a
now warm front over the northern part of the state. Showers and
storms are expected to develop along and north of the warm front
Wed. Then as the associated cold front begins to move toward the
area for Wed evening/night additional storms are expected to form
along this front and move into the area Wed night. Models show
some variability with qpf placement but showing better agreement
with timing of the precip. Forecast indicating the precip will
arrive late Wed night in association with the cold front. The
other variability in the models is with the location of the warm
front on Wed. With the amount of warm air expected during the day,
along with breezy southerly winds, expecting the front to be north
of the CWA during the day. So, could be some storms across the
northern half of the CWA as the front lifts north during the day,
but highest chances will be north of the front, which should be in
northern IL by afternoon. As the cold front moves through late Wed
night into Thur, precip will get pushed off south with highest
pops being in southeast IL Thur and Thur evening.

There may be a brief dry period Friday, but another weather system
will quickly push northeast toward the area Friday night and
should remain south of the CWA. So, mainly showers will be
expected Friday night and through the weekend. Considering the
expected track of the system, cooler weather will also be expected
through this period.

Then initial thoughts for next Monday will be dry and temps
continuing below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
cirrus remains over the sites this afternoon and based on model
data will continue through most of the forecast period. Winds will
be south to southeast, becoming southeast this afternoon and
continuing that way tonight and into tomorrow. Wind speeds should
be less than 10kts at all sites through the period.




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