Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 090949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
349 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
A deeply amplified pattern over the CONUS this morning is bringing
snow all the way to the Gulf Coast overnight. A weaker system is
moving through the Great Lakes as well, with some flurries/snow
showers in a few waves across Central IL before dawn. Light snow
chances expected through the remainder of the morning, mostly in
the northeast and east before noon. Slightly cooler temperatures
today as the winds shift around to more northwesterly behind a
prefrontal trough. Much cooler temperatures expected overnight
tonight as dense Arctic air drops into the Midwest. This will be
the first of two waves of colder air in the forecast as the flow
remains amplified across North America, and northwesterly in the


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017
Winds coming around to more southerly in a weak ridging on Sunday.
More sunshine expect to the SW, and will result in some
WAA...enough to keep the high temps up into the mid to upper 30s,
and Sun night warmer as well. Smaller shortwaves moving along the
northwesterly flow will bring a series of light chances for snow
and flurries Sunday night/Monday morning, mainly in the north and
northeastern portions of the state...but a small shift in the
forecast track could result in some flurry mention showing up in
the forecast in future runs. Northwesterly flow continues at the
surface and aloft through the first couple days of the work week.
Mondays highs move into the 40s, but the trough/wave bringing snow
chances to the north and east is accompanied by the second round
of deep cold air. Monday night temps drop into the 20s, and teens
Tuesday night. With the deepening cold air and continued
northwesterly flow, have brought the winds up a knot or two from
blended guidance through Midweek. Next chances for snow showing up
in the models between Thu night and Friday night. ECMWF and GFS
have timing about 24 hrs apart on moving a wave through the
region. For now, pops are light in the extended with a lack of
confidence in details.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Decided that VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs.
Trough is still forecast to move into the area overnight and bring
possible flurries/light snow to a some of the sites. Have backed
off on much MVFR cigs, except for PIA/BMI/CMI in the morning given
the lack of MVFR clouds in obs upstream. Cigs will drop overnight
with flurries or light snow but cigs will drop little further
after the snow in the morning. By afternoon, conditions will
improve and skies should become clear afternoon with clear skies
into the evening. Winds will be southwest before the trough and
then become west and then northwest behind the trough with some
gusts over 20kts.




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