Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 060759
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

High pressure and sfc ridge will slowly move south, but will still
dominate the weather across the CWA today. Skies will remain mostly
sunny through the day, even with a small patch of clouds coming in
from the north. Mid level ridging off to the west will allow some
return flow and warmer temps in the west/northwest, with temps
reaching above normal levels for early May. Mid 70s should be
present in the east, while lower 80s will be possible in the
northwest. Winds will be westerly through the period as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

Shortwave currently seen on water vapor imagery over northern
Alberta/Saskatchewan will be dropping southeast and forming a closed
low over northern Ontario on Saturday. A cold front ahead of it will
be pushing through the forecast area on Saturday. Much of the
associated precipitation will be immediately along the front, where
CAPE levels are expected to rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range
during the afternoon. Would not be surprised to see some storms
approaching severe levels along and south of I-72 in the afternoon.
Have increased PoP`s to around 60% during the afternoon from about
Lincoln-Bloomington southeast to Paris.

Evening model suite continues to support the front hanging up in a
northwest-southeast fashion from Nebraska to Kentucky, where it
becomes parallel to the upper flow between the low north of the
Great Lakes and the remnants of a ridge traversing the mid-
Mississippi Valley. Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will
be common south of a Rushville-Paris line through Saturday night,
but there will be a sharp northern edge to the rain, and the far
northern CWA may stay dry Saturday night. However, the front will be
lifting northward on Sunday, as the upper low currently just
northwest of Los Angeles pushes into the central High Plains.
Associated moisture surge will bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday night.

While the original low shears out over South Dakota on Tuesday,
another one will form in its place out of a trough moving out of the
Pacific Northwest. Although the surface system from the earlier low
should be out of the area by Wednesday, there will not be much of a
break before the next system, so rain chances will continue past mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Skies will
be mostly clear overnight then scattered cloud cover around 10
kft will spread across the area from the north starting around
10Z. Winds light and variable overnight becoming west 8-12 kts
with gusts 15 to 18 kts by 18Z. Winds and gusts decreasing after
02Z to 5-8 kts.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton



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