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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221931
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
331 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will allow dry and very warm weather to
continue through the weekend and into the first half of next week. A
cold front will finally bring a chance of showers by Wednesday night
and Thursday, followed by much cooler air to end next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery continues to show a thin veil of high
cirrus across the region this afternoon, associated with the outer
edge of upper level outflow from post-tropical cyclone Jose.
Otherwise, expect this cirrus to thin through the afternoon with
plenty of sun filtering through. High pressure will remain ridged
across the eastern Great Lakes, with the axis of a seasonably strong
588-590dm 500mb ridge approaching western NY from the central Great
Lakes. 850mb temps running +16C to +17C will support highs in the
low to mid 80s across lower elevations and around 80 on the hills.
Light northeast winds will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario in
the upper 70s. Fall arrives at 4:02PM.

High pressure surface and aloft will remain in place tonight. Expect
typical river valley fog across the western Southern Tier again late
overnight, with some patchy fog again for areas east and southeast
of Lake Ontario. Lows will range from the lower 60s on the lake
plains to the mid 50s across the interior Southern Tier and east of
Lake Ontario.

Saturday expect more of the same summer-like weather for the first
full day of Fall. The center of the seasonably-strong 590dm 500mb
ridge will shift closer to western and central NY with 850mb temps
climbing to +18C. After morning fog dissipates expect mainly sunny
skies for most. A weak trough rounding the top of the central Great
Lakes may bring a band of clouds across the North County and SLV.
Expect high temps to be even warmer reaching into the low to mid
80s. A high of 86 in Buffalo would tie a previous record set back in
1936 but Rochester and Watertown records should stay just our of
reach.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The anomalous 590 dm upper ridge, some 1-2 standard deviations above
normal across the Great Lakes, will expand east becoming centered
over New York state by Sunday. This will maintain the mid-summer
warmth across western and north central New York through the period.
Warm temperatures aloft and a dry atmospheric column will ensure dry
weather will continue into early next week. 850 mb temperatures
underneath the ridge will build to near +20C both Sunday and Monday,
which will support afternoon highs in the mid 80s to near 90
degrees, with the warmest readings expected across inland areas away
from local lake breeze circulations.

It does look as if some daily high temperature records may be
challenged during this time frame, particularly at Buffalo and
Rochester. Buffalo`s record highs for Sunday and Monday are 88 and
87, respectively, while Rochester`s records highs are 90 and 92,
respectively. Buffalo looks to stand the best chance at breaking a
daily record high temperature on either day, but especially Monday
as winds become more south to east promoting downsloping and
limiting lake breeze cooling. Ironically Buffalo has also made it
the entire summer without hitting the 90 degree mark, but now that
we are officially in autumn, Buffalo may make a run at the 90 degree
mark.

Nighttime low temperatures will be very consistent each night from
Saturday night through Monday night with radiational cooling under
the ridging aloft. Lows will range from the upper 50s in interior
valleys to the mid 60s in the lake plains. Valley fog will be
possible each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A major pattern change enters the picture for the second half of
next week going into the beginning of October. Global models are in
good agreement that the all-too-familiar western CONUS ridge will
make a reappearance by mid to late week, which will open the door
for troughing across the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast,
as we have seen for much of the summer.

After the heat peaks Sunday/Monday as mentioned above, the ridging
starts to weaken and shift eastward Tuesday into Wednesday as a
trough moves over the upper Great Lakes by late Wednesday. The
result will be subtly cooling temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday,
although daily highs will still be in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday,
and the low to mid 80s Wednesday (which remains about 15 degrees
above climo for this time of year). Finally a chance for showers or
even a few thunderstorms enters the picture as a cold front eases
through the region in the Wednesday night to Thursday time frame.


Despite much cooler air expected to spill across the region in the
wake of the cold front passage, this airmass change will only get us
back down to near more seasonal values by late week, with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A veil of thin cirrus continues across the region this afternoon
associated with the outermost portion of the upper level outflow
from post-tropical cyclone Jose. VFR will prevail with the thin/high
cirrus slowly thinning through this afternoon. Expect more of the
same tonight with VFR in most locations, and typical Southern Tier
river valley fog with local IFR possible after about 06Z but more
likely by 10z. There may also be some sunrise fog at KART with a
short window of IFR. This will all dissipate by 14/15z with VFR again
expected through the rest of Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. Local IFR conditions each late
night and early morning with fog.
Wednesday...chance of showers and thunderstorms with mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...CHURCH/TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK