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000
FXUS61 KBUF 312315
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
715 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
AS LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE WEAKENED...LEAVING LITTLE FORCING FOR
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHERMORE...THE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION HAS ALREADY STARTED TO STABILIZE WITH SBCAPES DIMINISHING
FROM AN AVERAGE OF 500 J/KG.

THAT BEING SAID...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR
MOVING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
OUR REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION...
COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHERN TIER.

H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF
IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...FRANKLIN