Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
FXUS61 KLWX 251840
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
240 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016
High pressure will build overhead through Sunday. High pressure
will move off the coast Sunday night. A cold front will move
through the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The boundary
will remain nearby during the middle and latter portions of the
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Extremely pleasant weather this afternoon courtesy of high
pressure building into the area from the north. Clouds have been
slowly eroding/sinking to the SW but moisture is now banking up
against the Blue Ridge..keeping western 1/3 of the forecast area
under mostly cloudy skies. This is expected to continue to erode
tonight...leaving area clear and relatively cool for the latter
part of June. Lows in the lower 60s except upper 60s in the
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
No rain chances Sunday or Sunday night as high pressure controls
the weather in the Mid Atlantic. Highs in the mid 80s will be a
degree or two below climo norms. Sunday night will see lows around
60 with the exception of the warmer cities.
High pressure continues to control weather in the NE US Monday
morning. An approaching cold front...something not always seen at
this time of year..will moving into WV Monday afternoon. This may
serve as a trigger for thunserstorms in the western part of the
forecast area. SPC has placed the western 1/2 of the area in a
marginal risk. CAPEs are not overly impressive in model soundings...
nor is the wind field. At the moment pulse severe seems the most
With the boundary slowly migrating across the area Monday night
there will be chances for thnderstorms Monday night.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Given the time of year it wouldn`t surprise me if the cold front
slated to pass through the region Monday night got hung up over the
eastern half of the area. The upper-level jet will be a little
stronger so any convection that fires will have some shear to work
with on Tuesday. The ECMWF actually keeps the front stalled over the
area through Wednesday.
Whenever the front slides offshore/weakens, high pressure and
seasonably cooler temperatures will follow in its wake and
likely persist through the end of the week.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. Light pre-dawn
fog will be possible at IAD..MRB..and CHO. No problems expected at
airports Sunday through Monday morning. Showers/thunderstorms
possible later Monday afternoon and night.
Sub-VFR possible in any scattered showers or thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday (depends if the cold front clears the area or
not). Winds ahead of the front will be southerly around 10 knots,
then become westerly sometime Wednesday after the front passes.
Winds expected to remain below SCA values through Monday.
Thunderstorms will be possible Monday evening/night on the
Southerly channeling with Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts
will remain possible as long as the cold front remains to the west
of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A period of westerly winds
gusting to Small Craft Advisory levels are possible behind the
front as well.