Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 020801 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 3AM...JET STREAM FROM DESERT SW TO SRN NEW ENGLAND IN A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS A HIGH BUILDING EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS
HIGH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST WITH THE NEXT BATCH...
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER WV. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT AND DETERMINE IF IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE.

LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. FOG IS
DEVELOPING AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POPS INCREASING TO
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT IN 30 KT BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 1500 J/KG
CAPE. PRESENCE OF DIFFERNTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OF RETREATING CAD
WEDGE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL BAY BREEZE BRINGS A TORNADO THREAT TO THE
BALT-WASH METRO. MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F FROM SUPERBLEND...HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL AS CAD WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ALONG THE STALLED COLD
FRONT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST IN WAKE OF SFC LOW...POPS DECREASE
LATE. MAX TEMPS AROUND 70F.

CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE XTND PD WL BE THE UPR TROF SITUATED
OVR THE NERN U.S. WED NGT-FRI. THIS WL ENSURE XTNSV CLD CVR FOR
THE AREA ALONG W/ CHCS FOR RAFL. HIGH TEMPS - IN THE 60S...WL BE
ABT TEN DEGS BLO NRML FOR ERLY MAY.

LOW IS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE NE SAT...BRINGING A RETURN VISIT FM
THE SUN. AFTN HTG COULD BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW SAT. A CD FNT MAY
PUSH THRU THE RGN SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD AIR DAMMING SLOWLY
BREAKS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST VIRGINIA MAY CROSS THE DC METROS
THROUGH SUNRISE. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE FRONT STALLS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED MARGINAL CONDS.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE SHOWERS.

XTNSV CLD CVR WL BE IN THE FCST OVR THE MID ATLC WED NGT-
FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS MAY BE PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

WINDS XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA LVLS DURG THE SECOND HALF OF THE WK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!



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