Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 022238
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
638 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERSIST OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAS
LED TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG.
THE HIGH INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES WILL
CAUSE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT AS
STRONG. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS EVENING BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE TROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING...MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CWA WILL BE POST-FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING
SOME DRYING THROUGH THE CWA...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT GETS HUNG UP IN SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP UP/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
WOULD LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE. TROUGH DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. IT MAY MOVE THROUGH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ITS POSSIBLE IT DOESN/T CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
TERMINALS INCLUDING KIAD...KDCA...KBWI AND KMTN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS TONIGHT. IF WINDS BECOME CALM...FOG MAY FORM.
THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT CHO. EXPECTATION IS FOR ENOUGH WIND TO
OCCUR AT OTHER SITES TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.

VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY POST-FRONTAL AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TO END THE WEEK. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TO END
THE WEEK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BJL/BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/BPP
MARINE...BJL/CEM/BPP







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