Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 260905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
405 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. STRATUS IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS HAS ERODED INTO PA. AS OF 08Z...STARK TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN AREAS WHICH HAVE DECOUPLED AND THOSE THAT
HAVE NOT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TODAY THOUGH WITH NEARLY
FULL SUN...WITH THE ONLY INHIBITOR BEING SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF
MIXING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIP EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE
JET STREAM STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH...HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER OVERALL THE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANQUIL AND
MILD. TONIGHT SHOULD FEATURE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL MEAN WARMER LOWS AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INCH UP...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS TOPPING 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ALONG
THE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 00Z/MON AND DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS
DECENT UPLIFT MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS
LOW SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT TOWARDS THE MASON-
DIXON LINE AT HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN
AT TIMES.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THEN COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL FEATURE SEASONAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE AIR MASS IS DRY
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR A FEW WESTERN MTN SNOW
SHOWERS WED AND THUR. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD
IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE MODEL FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY.

MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA-LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY FROM GENERALLY A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE.

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KLWX 88D WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE PARTS
TO REPAIR THE RADAR ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...ADS
MARINE...ADS/SMZ
EQUIPMENT...SMZ







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