Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 271544
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...DELAYED AND PUSHED POPS BACK FURTHER WESTWARD WITHIN THE
CWA. MESO MODELS AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
21Z. MAY MAKE FURTHER CHANGES TO THE POPS IN THE WEST AFTER AFTER
21Z. FORCING EXPECTED TO BE DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH
SURFACE/850 FRONTS AND ALSO JET STREAK HEADING NEWD FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS...PER WATER VAPOR. GIVEN THIN NATURE OF ANY CLOUDS HEADING
INTOSRN WI DURING PEAK HEATING EXPECT GOING WARM MAXES TO BE ON
TRACK.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH A MAINLY
UNEVENTFUL CLOUD REGIME WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
EXPECT CO,BO OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND NEWD MOVING JET STREAK TO
GENERATE AT LEAST A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE 00-06Z TIME...WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN
WI. POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS KICK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH UPPER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER WITH
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT
THOUGH NORMALLY MOIST NAM SOUNDINGS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE THOUGH FOR BORDERLINE
WAVE HEIGHTS AND SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
MAIN SMALL CRAFT CONCERN WILL BE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS GUSTY WEST WIND REGIME EVOLVES IN THE WAKE OF
PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGHER WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATERS FOR
TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SETTING OFF SCT-
NMRS T OVER CENTRAL/ERN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG.  LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS
AND MOSTLY PIVOTS EAST OF AREA LATER THIS MRNG WHICH SHOULD END T
FOR A TIME.  IN FACT...EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.  WARM FRONT TIED TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS IA SHOULD ADVANCE NWD INTO SRN WI THIS AFTN. APPEARS LESS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL RH SO LESS STRATUS EXPECTED AS THIS
FRONT PUSHES NWD.  BUMPED UP MAX TEMP SEVERAL DEGREES MOST
LOCATIONS.  MAY EVEN BE WARMER IN SOME SOUTHERN SPOTS AS 925 TEMPS
CLIMB TO AROUND 18C.

WL SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN AND CARRY SOME
LIKELY POPS INTO THE ERN CWA OVERNIGHT.  STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC FRONT.  HOWEVER
NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO HIGHER THAN LIKELY.  BEST DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WL BE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  FARTHER SOUTH...BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND SFC FRONT WL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH.
HENCE FEASIBLE THAT ONLY SOME WEAKENING -SHRA MEANDER ACROSS ERN CWA
DURING THE EVENING...ENDING AFT MIDNIGHT. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE TNGT SO LESS EMPHASIS ON T.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

PULLED THE POPS MOST PLACES FOR TUESDAY...AS MODELS NOW ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE QUICKER FRONTAL TIMING. COULD SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO FAR NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE ROLLS
THROUGH...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND THEN TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT
LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SHOWER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. CONFINED POPS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF MODELS. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEST SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN YET ANOTHER CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WRT CLOUD COVER TODAY.  NOT AS MUCH STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION UPSTREAM.  HENCE WL
LIKELY HAVE A GREATER PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.  INITIAL SURGE
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING OFF SCT-NMRS T OVER ERN CWA.  THIS
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG AS STRONGEST FORCING SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST.  LOWER CIGS LIKELY TNGT ACCOMPANYING MORE -SHRA AND POSS T
ALONG WITH SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.  EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN ALLOWING OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 22 KNOTS AND WAVES
TO EXCEED 4 FEET FOR A TIME.  SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTH AS WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MI.  NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON...WINDS MAY REMAIN SOUTHEAST THRU THE DAY.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV



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