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000
FXUS63 KMKX 201709 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS PRODUCING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM LA CROSSE TO GREEN BAY TODAY. 925-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS...WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE 500MB FLOW...AND WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ARE ALLOWING
FOR MODERATE UPWARD MOTION/OMEGA AND RESULTANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA WILL CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO EXPAND OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN UP TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS AND THE INCOMING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THE HEATING WEST AND NORTH OF
MADISON TO FOND DU LAC. THE LAKE BREEZE IS HUGGING THE SHORELINE IN
MILWAUKEE COUNTY SO THE AIRPORT HAS WARMED TO 70...BUT IT HAS PUSHED
INLAND WEST OF RACINE AND THE CITY OF KENOSHA AND ALSO WEST OF
SHEBOYGAN...WITH TEMPS STUCK IN THE 50S. I THINK THE LAKE BREEZE
WILL GET TO MITCHELL AIRPORT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH
FURTHER INLAND. OTHERWISE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK OR
MAYBE JUST A LITTLE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TNT FOR KMSN
AND THE SE WI TAF SITES. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
WI WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN TNT FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND
SOUTH WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI
ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT..FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI ALONG WITH ITS SFC-
850 MB FRONTOGENESIS. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO THE SOUTH WITH SCT HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER THE NW CWA. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT SO HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
FAR NW CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH TNT. MOST
OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TNT.

WARM TEMPS STILL LOOKING GOOD BUT THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER DOES
COMPLICATE THE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR STEADY
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NRN AND WRN CWA...BUT BELIEVE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE DAY OVER THE SE. THUS
WENT WITH SOME MID 70S OVER SE WI AND NEAR THE IL BORDER...AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S BEFORE
THE COOLING OCCURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL AID
VERTICAL MOTION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
ALL DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A CONVECTIVE LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME CAPES AOA 1100 J/KG. ANY HEATING AND WE CAN
HIT LOW/MID 70S PER MOS GUIDANCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE. CIPS ANALOGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
TEMPS OVER 70 AND DEW POINTS OVER 55. HOWEVER CIPS SHOWS SVR
THREAT LOW WITH ONLY MRGNL HAIL POTENTIAL AND THIS FITS WITH
CURRENT SWODY2 OUTLOOK OF GENERAL THUNDER. WILL CARRY HIGH POPS
AND CERTAINLY RETAIN THUNDER POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CHILLY AIRMASS SETTLES IN WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL DOMINATING.
850 TEMPS DROP OFF TO 0 TO -2C WITH A SMIDGE COOLER READINGS ON
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL
WHICH COULD HANG AROUND A BIT ESP IN ERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL WAA STARTS TO INCREASE. HOWEVER
850 JET CORE WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z WITH DRY AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE. MODELS IN SYNC WITH KEEPING PRECIP WEST OF CWA
THROUGH 18Z SO FLEXED OUT THE MORNING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND THEN
EXPANDED POPS WEST TO EAST WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSLATES EAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING WITH TIME.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE APPROACH OF A DECENT SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING TOWARDS WI FROM A BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS HAS ATTENDANT DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE SURGE TO THE NORTH. ATTM THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE SKEWING THE MOST FAVORED SEVERE THREAT TO THE SOUTH
OF WI...ESP ON THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE GFS HAS SOME 60 PCT VALUES
SNEAKING INTO WI. THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE BUT HOW FAR
NORTH THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA IS STILL A QUESTION
MARK. AT THIS TIME SURFACE DEWS ARE ONLY PROGGD INTO THE LOW/MID
50S. SO EMPHASIS BEING PLACED TO OUR SOUTH. COORD WITH SPC ON
THIS. BUT STILL QUITE A WAYS OFF AND THIS DAY IS ONE TO KEEP A
VERY CLOSE EYE ON.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST BUT LOW PRESSURE
SLOW TO DEPART THE REGION. SO EXPECTING A SHOWERY REGIME TO LINGER
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY
LIKELY TO BE ENHANCING LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE/850 TROUGH
AXES COMING INTO PLAY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW A TREND TOWARDS NVA WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO LINGER WITH 850
TEMPS SLOW TO REBOUND FROM PROGGD MORNING VALUES OF -2 TO -5C.
WILL MAINTAIN THE ALLBLEND POPS WHICH LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE
WETTER LOOK OF THE ECMWF WITH A GLANCING SHOT OF SOME RETURN WAA
SHRA INTO THE SRN CWA.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TNT FOR KMSN
AND THE SE WI TAF SITES. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
WI WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN TNT FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND
SOUTH WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE
BRIEF.

MARINE...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL ALLOW THE WAVES TO BE
NEAR 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY THIS MORNING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT BOATERS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR