Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 120406
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1106 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER ERN IA WILL VEER AND FOCUS MORE OVER NRN IL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THUS WENT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE FAR NRN CWA WITH 40 POPS NEAR THE IL BORDER. THE
POPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR SAT AM AS WELL AS THE WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION IS WEAK.

FOR SAT AFT AND EVE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME SWLY AND FOCUS
AT THE WI/IL BORDER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. A
CONSENSUS GIVES LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS VIA A MCS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MCS WITH LINGERING STORMS AS
WELL. MLCAPE WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. THE 0-1 KM SHEAR AND SRH REMAINS WEAK
SO THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. PWS WILL RANGE
FROM 1.7-2.0 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND AT LEAST URBAN FLOODING
IS A CONCERN. THE FORECAST IS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SVR PROBS AND HEAVY RAINFALL PROBS
WILL BE THE HIGHEST OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE
NOSE OF THE LLJ.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/..STRATUS OVER SW WI AND ERN IA WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SAT AS WEAK
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO 1-2 KFT
WITH VSBYS OF 3-5SM DEVELOPING. THE STRATUS SHOULD THEN BURN OFF
BY LATE SAT AM WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AT THAT TIME.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO FAR SRN WI FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN TSTORMS. SOME STRATUS AND FOG IS
THEN POSSIBLE LATE SAT EVE AFTER THE HEAVY RAINS END.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF PERIOD IN WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND 30-40 KT
SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IMPINGING ON TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ON NOSE OF
850 THERMAL RIDGE OVER CWA AT 00Z SUNDAY THAT FALLS OFF TO THE SOUTH
AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BY 06Z...WITH SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH
INTO NRN ILLINOIS.

NAM SHOWING MUCH MORE CAPE THAN GFS...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN
35KTS AND 40 KTS ON BOTH SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 2 INCHES SO
HEAVY RAIN A GOOD BET...THOUGH MESO-BETA ELEMENT SPEEDS ARE 15 TO 20
KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING...BUT SOME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN THOSE LOW-LYING
LOCATIONS/UNDERPASSES THAT NORMALLY FILL WITH WATER IN HEAVY RAINS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A BREAK IN THE PCPN AS INITIAL TROUGH/COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IL BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH SECOND COLD FRONT
 MOVING INTO NRN WI AND REACHING THE NRN CWA BY AFTERNOON.

GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING 200-300 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH WEAK LOW-
MID FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE.
PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF STATE WITH FORCING SUNDAY
EVENING. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S...LOW 80S FAR
SOUTH BEFORE PCPN AND FRONT MOVE IN. LOWS COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH
STATE MONDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE BUT STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH
DYNAMICS LEADS TO CHANCE OF  SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS
AND PCPN LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES FOR
HIGHS. COLD POOL FIRMLY OVER STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS AND 5
TO 10 MPH NW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MORE THAN LOW-MID
50S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK TUESDAY IN NW FLOW AS 500 MB LOW PUSHES EAST
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...OR ABOUT 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER RETREATING CYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NE CWA. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW
WARM UP THE REST OF THE WEEK AS 500 LOW LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SURFACE HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVE IN. LOW 70S GIVE WAY TO
MID 70S THURSDAY...AND NEAR-NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WE MAY SEE AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOP WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT...AS MORE
WARM AND MOIST AIR TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF WI. MAY SEE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES...AS WINDS WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME COULD
BE SEVERE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM



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