Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 241720
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY AND
HAPPENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO BAND LIFTING NNE FROM SRN COUNTIES. THIS IS HELPING TO
FACILITATE THE CHANGEOVER. NAM QPF LOOKS OVERDONE HOWEVER
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST THE MODELS TO GENERATE IMPRESSIVE
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL WI. NICE NEGATIVE TILT
THERMAL TROUGH. 700-500 MILLIBAR VV INCREASES RAPIDLY. LINGERING
DEF ZONE WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STARTED OFF WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT TRENDED THEM HIGHER AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP
IN ON THE GUSTY WEST WINDS.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...IFR AND A FEW LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ACROSS
SRN WI. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CHANGE THE WET HEAVIER SNOW TO A
LIGHTER TEXTURE SO BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY SO
LESS WIND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS WEST WINDS RAMP UP IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW. GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE REST OF SRN
WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG OMEGA...15 TO 22
MICROBARS/SEC...IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO SUPPORT
SNOW...BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

QPF MAX HAS SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE AXIS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI...AND WITH PROLONGED FORCING DUE TO NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH AXIS NOT CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 12Z
TUESDAY...LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NRN CWA...WITH 3 TO
5 INCH ELSEWHERE. THESE AMOUNTS WERE PRODUCED EVEN AFTER
ACCOUNTING FOR REDUCED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.
THE WINDS.

THE WINDS WILL ADD A FURTHER COMPLICATION WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
BECOMING AN INCREASING PROBLEM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES PRODUCE A LIGHTER CONSISTENCY
SNOW...JUST IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW.
ENDED UP WITH ABOUT AN INCH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
COULD BE EVEN LESS PER DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD BE UP NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
EARLY THIS MORNING EVOLVING INTO LIGHT RAIN THAT CHANGES TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SNOW WILL BE INTENSE AT TIMES...ACCUMULATING AT A RATE OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. TAF SITES
WILL SEE 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING....WITH HIGHER
TOTALS TO THE NORTH. THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE HEAVY DUE TO A
HIGH WATER CONTENT...BUT WILL LIGHTEN IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS TO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

MARINE...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT TIMING ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AS WEST WINDS WILL REACH CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE HURON. WILL SEE A
FEW GALE GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING.
HOWEVER A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ058>060-
     064>066-070>072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ056-
     057-062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV


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