Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 291532 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S RIGHT NOW...SO STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH THE SUN POKING OUT AT
TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CURRENTLY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW. SHOULD
SEE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTS IN HIGHER CLOUD BASES. EXPECTING SOME CLEARING THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH
THE AREA. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CIGS
TOMORROW...THOUGH COULD GET NEAR MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THIS AM. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR
TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION TNT WITH MO CLEAR TO PTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
MIDDAY THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.65 BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS TOGETHER ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWER MENTION
WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.

MEANWHILE... AN INTENSE 500MB SHORTWAVE WITH POLAR ORIGINS WILL BE
BARRELING SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DEEPEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT DROPS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY OVER SOUTHERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT
THU NIGHT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

VERY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WRAP INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI FRIDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE
PRESSURE RISE OF 11 TO 12 MB BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND 00Z SAT OVER
SOUTHEAST WI. THIS POTENT SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 40 TO
50 MPH WIND GUSTS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI FRIDAY MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AT LEAST THE EAST
HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA.

BESIDE THE WIND... THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL UPWARD
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN WI
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PIVOTS OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT... THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE QUITE DRY AND DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION
VERY WELL. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP COMING IN WITH INCREASING QPF EACH
RUN. EXPECT THE FCST POPS TO BE RAISED.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE PLUMMETING TO AROUND -9C AND 925MB TEMPS TO
-3C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING. ALL OF
THIS MEANS THAT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH MEASURABLE QPF
WILL FALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM THUS VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN
ADDITION... THE GROUND IS STILL WARM WHICH WOULD NOT ALLOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION. THAT SAID... MODEL RUNS KEEP COMING IN HIGHER WITH QPF
AMOUNTS SO THAT MAY CHANGE.

HIGHS AROUND 40 ARE OPTIMISTIC FOR FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN
THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT STRATOCU WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEMS
PROBABLE. FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY AND LESS WINDY BUT COLD... WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD. IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP ON
SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.

THE ECWMF BRINGS PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI EARLIER THAN THE GFS GIVEN
DIFFERENT STRENGTHS OF AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OF STRATOCUMULUS AT 2500-3500 FEET WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT DUE TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TNT.

MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 15Z THIS MORNING
AS WIND GUSTS FALL BELOW THE 22 KT THRESHHOLD. A GALE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR FRI AND FRI NT FOR NLY GALES BEGINNING AROUND 12Z FRI
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LARGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO
11 FEET WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC



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