908
FXUS64 KMOB 180451
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1151 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Showers and storms become numerous to widespread over the area
overnight then taper off from west to east on Saturday. IFR to
LIFR conditions will accompany the stronger storms along with
strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall reducing visibilities. IFR
to MVFR conditions are expected outside of convection through
Saturday morning then improves to VFR during Saturday afternoon.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A chance for showers or storms this evening will be followed by
increasing coverage of convection from near 05Z through the night.
Showers and storms taper off west to east from mid morning
Saturday through the afternoon. IFR to potentially LIFR conditions
will accompany the stronger storms. MVFR to IFR conditions are
otherwise expected until improving to VFR over much of the area on
Saturday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A complex weather pattern continues to evolve across the Gulf
Coast this afternoon as a weak sfc boundary continues to slowly
sink southward. South of this boundary a very unstable atmosphere
has developed with MLCAPE values over 2000 J/Kg and deep layer
shear values around 50 knots. Enhanced low level shear in the
vicinity of the sfc boundary will help to enhanced an isolated
tornado potential as well. As a result, a tornado watch has been
issued for Escambia and Covington counties through 10pm this
evening. As these storms encounter the more unstable airmass
closer to the coast, expect an uptick in intensity as these storms
move south. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats. A tornado cannot be completely ruled out especially near
the boundary. There may be a lull in activity late this evening
before convection increases again during the morning hours on
Saturday. More heavy rain and severe storms are possible with
these storms overnight into Saturday morning. The Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning. While the bulk
of the heavier rain will move east of the area Saturday morning,
additional development is possible through the day as the upper
low moves across the Tennessee Valley.

Lows tonight will be in the mid/upper 60s inland to low 70s along
the coast. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 80s. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level shortwave trough over the eastern Conus moves off,
allowing a building upper ridge over the Southern Plains to shift
east to over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. A bit cooler and
drier moves over the Southeast Saturday night into Sunday as the
upper trough moves off, but subsidence from the approaching upper
ridge quickly negates the influx of slightly cooler air. A few
showers and thunderstorms will dampen land and marine areas of the
forecast area Saturday night, but the rest of the Short Term is
expected to be dry.

High temperatures will quickly rebound to near to above seasonal
norms with the increasing upper subsidence. Mid to upper 80s Sunday
see an uptick to upper 80s to around 90 over most of the forecast
area (mid 80s along the coast) for Monday. Low temperatures in the
low to mid 60s Saturday and Sunday night see an uptick into the mid
to upper 60s for Monday night over most of the forecast area.

Moderate onshore flow eases Saturday into Saturday night with
onshore swell also decreasing. A High Risk of rip currents drops to
moderate by Sunday evening in the process.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The upper ridge takes an northeasterly tilt as it moves over the
eastern Conus. Several rounds of shortwave energy get directed in a
path generally north of the forecast area through Thursday, and with
that, the highest PoPs remain north of the forecast area, even with
southerly flow restored to the southeast and an upward trend in
moisture levels. Guidance is advertising a stronger upper level
shortwave moving east over the Southeast Friday, bringing a better
chance of rain to the forecast area. Some guidance is advertising a
weak cold front moving south over the Southeast Friday into Friday
night(GFS), but the ECMWF and GDPS maintain a warmer, more moist
southerly flow. Any drop in temperatures from a cold front will be
just after the current package, so am maintaining a seasonably warm
and humid forecast through the rest of the forecast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Moderate southerly winds along with building seas will occur
today ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will
bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the marine area
tonight through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in
the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  80  66  88  66  89  68  87 /  80  80  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   71  79  68  84  68  85  71  84 /  80  90  20  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  81  69  85  70  85  72  84 /  70  90  30  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   68  80  63  87  63  88  64  89 /  80  80  20  10   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  66  82  63  87  63  90  65  90 /  50  50  10  10   0   0   0   0
Camden      67  81  62  85  62  88  65  88 /  70  70  20  10   0   0   0   0
Crestview   68  81  63  88  63  89  64  89 /  80  90  30  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob