Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 241137 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
537 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...IFR CIGs will transition to MVFR through the
morning as winds pick up. VISBY limiting fog has been limited at
the beginning of the current forecast, though as a surface front
moves south over the area and stalls along the coast tonight, am
expecting an uptick in IFR VISBYS or lower. Will also see an
uptick in precip coverage as the front moves across the area



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 444 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...A strong shortwave
moving through an upper trough centered just east of the US
Rockies pushes a weakening front over the Mississippi Delta
tonight, shifting a seemingly ever-present surface ridge over the
northern Gulf coast southward. Today, well ahead of the front`s
approach, an upper ridge over the Gulf of Mex/Caribbean remains in
control, bringing another day of well above seasonal temps. The
moisture influx over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and
western portions of the Southeast remains, with best chance of
rain today over western portions of the forecast area.

Looking at the chance of any strong to severe storms in the Near
Term, with the Gulf/Caribbean upper ridge continuing to deflect
passing shortwave energy well north of the area, any upper support
remains north of the area. At this point, SPC has a marginal risk
of severe weather, mainly for areas northwest of the Alabama
River. See no reason to argue at this point. May see a strong
storm or two but with limited shear limiting any organized
rotators, damaging winds will be the primary threat.

Another day of organized light to moderate onshore flow combined
with a large tidal cycle will allow for a continued high risk of
rip currents. /16

SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...An elongated upper
level ridge of high pressure extending from southern Mexico
northeast across the southern Florida peninsula to the western
Atlantic will remain largely in place, while an upper shortwave
exiting the Rockies Sunday morning will move quickly eastward
over the central and eastern conus and over the western Atlantic
through the short term.

Meanwhile, a surface high pressure ridge across the southeast
states and eastern Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward, making way
for an area of low pressure forming over the northwest Gulf of
Mexico to move east-northeast across the region Sunday night into
Monday. An associated cold front approaching the region from the
northwest on Sunday will move through the forecast area Sunday
night into Monday. A light and variable wind through Sunday
evening will become north in the wake of the front. Numerous to
definite showers and thunderstorms will occur Sunday and Sunday
night, with the precipitation tapering off from northwest to
southeast on Monday. Dry conditions on forecast Monday night.

A strengthening upper level jet max of 130 to 160 knots ahead of
the upper shortwave will form over the eastern conus and move
eastward, while a low level jet of 20 to 40 knots moves over the
area Sunday night into Monday. Maximum mixed layer CAPE values
late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning are forecast to range
from 150 to 300 J/kg, with maximum SFC-1km SRH values forecast to
range from 75 to 150 M2/S2. Still expect a few strong to marginal
severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front Sunday into early
Monday, with strong thunderstorm wind gusts the main threat.

Widespread rainfall amounts will range from 1.00 to 1.75 inches
north of a Wiggins MS to Greenville AL line, and from 0.50 to
1.00 inch south to the coast. /22

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Dry conditions are expected
on Tuesday as surface high pressure dominates the southeast
conus. However, a few light rain showers could move into
southeast Mississippi by late in the afternoon as the high shifts
east. Rain chances increase Tuesday night as the high pressure
moves over the western Atlantic and a warm front lift northward
across the forecast area. Scattered rain showers on Wednesday will
be followed by only a few showers Wednesday night as the warm
front moves well north of the area. Another upper shortwave
approaching the region from the west on Thursday will allow a
surface low forming over the southern plains to deepen and move
east across the region Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. An
associated strong cold front will sweep through the forecast area
Thursday night. Scattered rain showers and and possibly a few
storms are forecast Thursday and Thursday night, followed by dry
conditions on Friday. Above normal temperatures are expected
Wednesday and Thursday. /22

MARINE...A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf
coast will break down Sunday into Sunday night as a surface front
moves to, then slowly meanders south of the coast Sunday through
most of the Monday. The weak front quickly loses its identity, then
moves north into Wednesday as a surface high passes north of the
area, allowing a surface ridge to rebuild over the Southeast the
end of the work week. /16


AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>632.



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