Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 300500
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
30.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD THOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND FOG
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...THE OVERALL FORECAST TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST AND
NORTH TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL EXTEND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
ENHANCED BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
SEABREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
30-40 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED AND UPPER FORCING RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH BUOYANCY ALONG THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH FAIRLY LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7500-9500 FT AGL AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7-7.5 C/KM...A FEW STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE
LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE
UPDATED THE HWO TO ADD MENTION OF THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  80  58  80  61 /  05  20  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   56  79  61  79  64 /  05  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      57  74  62  76  65 /  05  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   51  81  54  81  59 /  05  40  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  55  80  55  82  58 /  10  30  20  20  30
CAMDEN      52  78  53  81  58 /  10  50  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   49  82  57  82  61 /  05  30  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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