Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 292105
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
405 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A weak to moderate short wave trof
currently over the ms river valley this afternoon will continue
drift eastward through sat helping to provide better forcing or lift
across lower ms river valley and central gulf states through sat
afternoon. Near the sfc high pressure will continue to maintain
strength across the eastern and north central gulf stretching
northward over the central gulf states allowing a deep southerly
flow and good low to mid level moisture advection to persist across
the forecast area through sat afternoon also. Latest model soundings
support this reasoning with pwats generally ranging from 1.7 to 2.1
inches through the next 24 hours combined moderate instability in
boundary layer...mucapes generally around 2000 j/kg each afternoon...thus
leading to high chance pops for most inland areas this afternoon and
early this evening...tapering off to isolated showers and
thunderstorms later this evening followed by another round of high
end scattered pops late sat morning through sat afternoon and
possibly early sat evening generally well inland from the coast. Also
noted due to some warming aloft lapse rates remain mostly below 6.0
c/km for the remainder of today followed by slightly higher values
for sat afternoon ranging from 6.0 to 6.3. suggesting a low threat
for severe weather for the remainder of today followed by still a low
threat for sat though with maybe few stronger storms for some inland
areas by mid to late afternoon sat. Thunderstorms will continue to
move from west to east through sat afternoon. Low temps tonight will
continue to range from mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s
near the immediate coast...followed by highs in the mid 90s inland
and the upper 80s to lower 90s near the coast. 32/ee

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...East-West
oriented upper ridging gradually, and modestly, builds over the
region through the period while an upper trof slowly advances
eastward across the interior eastern states.  Deep layer moisture
remains high through the period with precipitable water values near
2.0 inches as a surface ridge persists near the northern Gulf and
promotes a moist onshore flow over the forecast area. A weak and
diffuse surface trof continues to linger mainly over the interior
Gulf coast states through the period as well. Continue to expect
scattered convective development each day due to daytime heating and
some support from the nearby weak surface trof and possible sea
breeze development. Convection will produce outflows which leads to
additional development during the day. Isolated convection will
linger into the evening hours before dissipating. Daytime highs will
be in the lower/mid 90s except for around 90 at the coast. Afternoon
heat indices will reach 102-106. Lows will be in the lower/mid 70s
except for upper 70s near the coast. /29

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...An upper trof over the
extreme eastern states moves off into the Atlantic and weakens while
a broad and expansive upper ridge remains over the region. A surface
ridge persists near the northern Gulf and promotes a moist onshore
flow over the forecast area, while a weak and diffuse surface trof
may continue to linger over the Gulf coast states for much of the
period. With this pattern, expect a continuation of scattered
convection developing each day with isolated convection lingering
into the evening/overnight hours. Highs will be in the lower/mid 90s
through Wednesday with heat indices of 102-107, then highs will be mostly
in the lower 90s for Thursday and Friday with heat indices of
100-105. Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to the upper 70s
near the coast. /29

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will continue to maintain strength over the
eastern and north central gulf through wed leading to mostly a light
south to southwest wind flow through midweek. Seas will continue to
range from 1 to 2 feet with scattered showers and thunderstorm also
possible through the period. With a weak mid to upper level
disturbance tracking eastward over the central part of the country
combined with moderate instability through the period a few strong
thunderstorms will also be possible...occurring mostly offshore
during the late night and early morning hours then closer to the
coast including inland and bays and sounds during the afternoon and
early evening hours each day. 32/ee

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  92  75  92 /  20  30  20  40
Pensacola   78  92  77  92 /  20  30  20  30
Destin      81  91  79  91 /  20  20  20  30
Evergreen   74  93  73  94 /  30  30  20  50
Waynesboro  73  94  75  93 /  30  30  20  50
Camden      74  94  73  93 /  30  30  20  50
Crestview   74  95  74  94 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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