Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 241741 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


18Z issuance...vfr conditions forecast. Patchy ground fog at KMOB
late tonight could result in MVFR conditions. Southeast winds 8 to
12 knots this afternoon will become light overnight. /22


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...Quiet weather pattern
continues in the near term. A short wave mid level ridge axis noses
northeast from the western Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley thru tonight. Larger scale subsidence associated with this
feature and forecast bufr soundings showing pwats at or less than 1
inch keeps rain out of the forecast. Considering the drier air is anticipated that surface dewpoints will mix out (lower)
through the day...resulting in another day of low humidity. Under
mostly sunny skies...highs warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s along
and north of I-10. Surface high pressure extending from the central
Gulf Coast to off into the southwest Atlantic supports a light south
to southeast flow today. Flow off the Gulf keeps highs about a
category the mid 80s along the beaches. Overnight lows
mainly in the lower 60s interior to upper 60s/lower 70s beaches. /10

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Upper ridging over
the eastern states shifts slowly eastward through Thursday, with an
upper low forming over the Bahamas, while an upper trof advances from
the western states into the Plains. A surface ridge persists over
the Gulf coast states through the period and maintains a light
onshore flow over the forecast area. Deep layer moisture increases
gradually over the area through the period, but subsidence from the
upper ridge over the region will support staying with a dry forecast
for now through Thursday night. Highs will be near 90 inland with mid
80s at the coast. Lows Wednesday night will range from the lower 60s
inland to upper 60s at the coast, then trend a bit warmer for
Thursday night to mid 60s inland and around 70 at the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The Plains upper trof ejects off
across the Great Lakes region through Sunday while the Bahamas upper
low, and associated surface low, advance into the Carolinas. Will
continue with dry conditions for Friday, then expect isolated
convection to be possible Saturday and Sunday from the sea breeze
and possible enhancement of convergence along the sea breeze from
synoptic scale northerly winds associated with the surface low
moving into the Carolinas. Unclear at this point on whether the
Carolinas system will travel northward along the East Coast or linger
over the extreme southeast states, but have continued with slight
chance pops over the area for now. Highs on Friday and Saturday will
range from the upper 80s inland to the lower/mid 80s closer to the
coast, then trend warmer through Monday to around 90 except for upper
80s at the coast. Lows will range from the mid/upper 60s inland to
the lower 70s at the coast. /29

MARINE...A light southeast to south wind flow is forecast through
the week with high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic
to the central Gulf Coast. Seas around 2 feet through Wednesday
night become 2 to 3 feet Thursday through early Saturday. Next chance
of showers and storms looks to enter the forecast by
Saturday...mainly over the near shore waters. /10


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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