Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 222059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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