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000
FXUS64 KMOB 270513
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1213 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions with occasional MVFR level CIGs possible overnight
into Saturday morning. Southeast winds around 10 knots will rise
to 10 to 15 knots during the day Saturday, around 15 knots close
to the coast.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 649 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours,
although a brief period of MVFR ceilings may attempt to develop
late tomorrow morning. Otherwise, breezy southeasterly winds of
around 10-15 knots will continue through tonight, becoming quite
gusty tomorrow after sunrise. Winds throughout the day tomorrow
could gust up to 30 knots. /96

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Dry weather conditions prevail as upper ridging remains situated
across the southeastern U.S. through Saturday. A passing trough to
the north will likely result in increased cloud cover across the
forecast area Saturday which may limit daytime heating to some
extent. Regardless, expecting temperatures to still rise into the
lower 80`s for most spots Saturday after reaching lower to middle
80`s this afternoon. The primary impacts during the forecast
period will be breezy winds this afternoon and again Saturday.
Wind gusts of 20 to 25mph today become 25 to 30mph for Saturday.

Given persistent southeasterly flow along the coast, the threat
for life threatening rip currents will rapidly increase as we head
into the weekend. A Moderate risk of rip currents this evening
becomes a high risk by early Saturday morning and will linger
through the rest of the weekend into early next week. MM/25

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper level ridge will slowly transition eastward across the
southeastern states through the weekend into early next week.
Meanwhile, the sfc pressure gradient will increase between high
pressure across the Atlantic and low pressure moving through the
plains. This will create breezy conditions each day with
southeasterly winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph at
times this weekend. Deep layer subsidence underneath the ridge
axis will keep the weather dry across our area through the
weekend. Enough moisture returns to western portions of the area
by Monday afternoon for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A shortwave in the southwest upper level flow will
bring the potential of isolated to scattered showers and storms
on Tuesday. Upper level ridging rebuilds over the area during the
middle of the week, maintaining dry conditions. A weak frontal
boundary may approach the area by the end of the period with
another chance of isolated showers/storms. Warm temperatures will
prevail through the week, with highs mostly in the 80s and lows
mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and in the mid 60s to
near 70 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches.

MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Southeasterly flow continues to increase over the marine area as we
head into the upcoming weekend. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for much of the marine area from Saturday morning through
late Sunday night with southeasterly winds averaging between 15-25
kts and frequent gusts up to around 30 kt possible. Seas also look
to build to 6-8 ft over the Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday.
MM/25 /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  80  65  82  64  83  64  84 /   0   0   0  10  10  20   0  10
Pensacola   68  78  67  79  65  80  66  82 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0   0
Destin      68  78  68  79  66  80  67  81 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0   0
Evergreen   61  83  59  85  60  85  60  88 /   0   0   0  10  10  20   0  10
Waynesboro  63  83  62  85  63  84  62  86 /   0   0   0  30  30  40  10  20
Camden      63  82  60  83  60  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  30   0  10
Crestview   62  84  59  84  59  85  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through late
     Monday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 6 PM CDT Monday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through late
     Monday night for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT Monday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ630>634-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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