Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250503 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF cycle with
only few to scattered low and high clouds expected along the northern
gulf coast region. Calm to light northerly winds overnight will
gradually turn back to the south to southeast at around 7 knots
Sunday afternoon at all terminals due to developing sea breeze. A few
showers and thunderstorms should develop again late Sunday afternoon
along the northward moving seabreeze, so added vicinity thunderstorm
to all taf sites starting at 21z. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF cycle with
only few to scattered low and high clouds expected along the
northern gulf coast region. Calm to light northerly winds overnight
will gradually turn back to the south to southeast at around 7 knots
Sunday afternoon at all terminals due to developing sea breeze. A
few showers and thunderstorms should develop again late Sunday
afternoon along the northward moving seabreeze. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...A few strong to severe
thunderstorms have developed in the last hour generally over the
western Florida panhandle east of Pensacola stretching north into
lower parts of south central Alabama. Wind gusts to 60 mph and
dangerous cloud to ground lightning will be the main threats with the
stronger storms through early this evening. Movement of most of the
thunderstorms was to the south southwest at 15 to 25 mph. With better
lift in the mid levels combined with marginal instability and drier
air aloft in the boundary layer a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southwest Alabama
stretching south into parts of northwest Florida for the next 2 to 3
hours. Stay tuned to local media outlets or noaa weather radio if
threatening weather is approaching your area. For later tonight
expect mostly clear skies through sun morning followed by partly
cloudy skies with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
forming by early to mid afternoon. The best coverage for
thunderstorms looks to be similar to today forming over the lower
parts of south central Al moving into parts of the western Florida
panhandle.

As for temps with good subsidence in the boundary layer earlier in
the day combined with a light northerly wind flow at the surface
some areas have reached or exceeded the record highs for today. The
record high for Mobile Al on this day was 94 in 2010. So far the
high for today for Mobile is 95. For tonight lows will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s for most inland areas and the mid 70s
along the immediate coast. Highs for sun will be similar to today
ranging from the mid 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s near
the immediate coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...Surface ridging
and a weak upper level low will remain over the area through Monday,
continuing the above normal daytime temperatures and diurnally forced
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Late Monday night into Tuesday, a
shortwave propagating across the Great Lakes area will help push a
cold front into the southeastern states and through our forecast
area. Given the the upper low overhead and additional forcing from
the advancing surface front...have continued slight to chance POPs
through the period.

Daytime highs on Monday will remain well above seasonal levels, with
temperatures expected to rise into the low to mid 90`s inland and to
around 90 closer to the coast. Daytime temperatures will then begin a
cooling trend as the front passes through Tuesday, with mid to upper
80`s expected across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon (the
exception being parts of the far northwest Florida panhandle, which
could perhaps still get to around 90). Overnight lows will only dip
to the upper 60`s inland and around 70 near the coast Sunday and
Monday nights. Tuesday night`s low should get down a bit further
given the passage of the front earlier that day, with inland areas
seeing temps around 60 and areas closer to the coast dropping into
the mid 60`s. /49

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Things should feel noticably
more pleasant beginning Wednesday, with conditions becoming cooler
and drier after the passage of the cold front earlier in the week.
Little to no precipitation is expected at this time during the
extended period, save for a few possible coastal showers late in the
week as surface winds shift to easterly beneath building high
pressure and Gulf moisture begins its slow return. Daytime highs
will range from the low to mid 80`s each afternoon and overnight lows
will dip into the upper 50`s inland and upper 60`s near the coast
each night. The coolest night right now appears to be Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, when temps in the mid 50`s will be most
widespread across the interior and a few spots could dip even further
into the low 50`s. /49

MARINE...Weak high pressure will continue over the marine area
through early next week then strengthen later in the week as a
significant cold front moves south over much of the northern gulf by
mid week. A light offshore flow mostly during the overnight and
morning hours followed by a light southerly flow during the
afternoon and evening hours will continue through early next week
followed by a moderate to strong northerly flow throughout the day
and overnight hours by mid week. 32/ee

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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