Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 010959
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
459 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LAST
EVENING HAS PROGRESSED WELL SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES...THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS HAVE PERSISTED NEAR
THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH STILL NOTED AT A FEW OBSERVATION STATIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AS OF 4 AM CDT. WINDS HAVE DECREASED FOR THE TIME BEING OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. STRONG COLD AND DRY ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR INTERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE SO FAR HELD IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE BREEZIER LOCATIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
CAROLINA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. WE HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION...PERHAPS AROUND
60 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING
WINDS AND VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PROVIDING
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE FIRST LIGHT FREEZE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS
TREND...SO HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 8 AM
CST SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST CALLS FOR
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 29 TO 32 ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...AND MID
30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. /21

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING THE RE-ENFORCING
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ATTM CONTINUES TO SWING EAST...MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST AS ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SWINGS EAST. THIS PUSHES
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE MISS RIVER VALLEY EAST OF THE RIVER AND
A SURFACE JUST EAST OF THE MISS RIVER SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS THE FA UNDER
EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY MONDAY.

FOR THE FORECAST...SUNDAY IS ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH THE FA STILL
UNDER COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE NORTHERLY PUSH EASING...AND A
DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FA...AM EXPECTING A BIT OF A WARM-UP FROM
TODAY`S TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW KICKING IN...TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST WILL SEE THE WARMING INFLUENCE OF AREA COASTAL WATERS...WITH
WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE FROM
TONIGHT. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST TO
SEE ANY GULF INFLUENCE...THUS A SMALL INCREASE FROM TONIGHT. MAY
STILL SEE A FEW POCKETS OF TEMPS AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NORTHEASTER
PORTIONS OF THE FA...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE TO BE LOCALIZED.
OVERALL...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS CONTINUE.

MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE FA...AND WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST...MORE OF THE FA WILL SEE
THE WARMING INFLUENCE OF THE GULF WATERS...WITH WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FA SEEING THE MOST. TEMPS APPROACH SEASONAL LEVELS FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY...BUT AM EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW SEASONAL...ALBEIT A
COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MONDAY`S CASE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BECOMING STRETCHED AS THE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN END
COMES UP AGAINST AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GULF OF MEX
AND THE NORTHERN END CONTINUES EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE THE SOUTHERN END FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER/NEAR THE
AZ/NM/MEX BORDER....WHICH FORMS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING NE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID MISS RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OF
THE CONUS. FOR THE FA...MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
INCREASE ALONG WITH TEMPS (RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS).

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE US/MEX
BORDER. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY EAST...TO OVER SOUTHERN TX BY
THURSDAY EVENING...AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIG AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS BRINGS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST UNDER A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED
SOUTH...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX. THE ECMWF HAS THE SAME
DIGGING ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND PUSHES THE FRONT ACROSS
THE FA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT KEEPS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/MAX BORDER FARTHER WEST...MORE OVER THE AZ/MEX BORDER.
THE RESULT IS LESS OF AN UPGLIDE INFLUENCE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA...AND A SMALLER CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH EITHER
SCENARIO POSSIBLE...AND GUIDANCE TEMPS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...HAVE BLENDED THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WITH RESPECT
TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN. ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SAYS THE OP ECMWF IS
TOO DRY AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE SAYS THE OP GFS IS TOO WET...FEEL THIS
THE BEST COMPROMISE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW(OR S-CENTRAL) CONUS SWINGING EAST. THE
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A MORE NORTHERN PATH...OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHERE IT`S JOINED BY SOME MORE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS FROM CA. THE GFS MEANDERS THE S-ERN TX ENERGY MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX BY SAT EVENING. THE MORE
NORTHERLY PATH OF THE ECMWF RESULTS IN MORE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT COMES UP
AGAINST A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE
GFS KEEPS THIS ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE GULF
OF MEX. AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE...SO HAVE DONE THAT FOR THE FORECAST. THE RESULT IS TEMPS
AND CHANCE OF RAIN BEING AROUND SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NW TO N WINDS 10-20 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS EXPECTED EAST OF I-65 AND
NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AFTER 23Z. /21

&&

.MARINE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND GALE FORCE IMPACTING MUCH
OF THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE OFFSHORE WIND SPEEDS COME
DOWN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT...AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS OF 5-8 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH 7-11 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED WELL
OFFSHORE. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-5 FEET INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHEAST
GULF LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS GENERALLY VICINITY
THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK...PROMOTING A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  33  64  39  71 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   59  38  65  45  71 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      59  42  64  47  70 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   56  31  62  34  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  56  30  62  34  71 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      55  29  61  35  70 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   58  32  64  32  72 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
     ESCAMBIA...

FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$


21/16





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