Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 250446 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.06Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE.
/22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...IT WAS BARELY ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW
CLOUDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST...A COOL
AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. AS A
RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S INLAND
TONIGHT TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. 13/JC

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO DAYTIME HIGHS. ON SUNDAY LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR ZONES...UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S (AND
EVEN A FEW LOWER 60S) COASTAL. SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 12/DS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO LONGER TERM
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH IN THE GULF COAST STATES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5
INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
12/DS & 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. 13/JC

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. RED FLAG CRITERIA ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  80  58  83  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   55  80  60  82  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      59  79  66  79  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   44  80  51  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  46  82  51  85  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  80  51  85  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  81  49  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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