Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 050445 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS ON THURSDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE AREA WITH A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...REINFORCING
THE COOLER/DRIER AIR. AS A RESULT...A LIGHT TO MODERATE MOSTLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL TONIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND A FEW LOWER 60S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE COAST. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO BEGIN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN CARRIES OVER INTO SATURDAY
WITH A WELL DEFINED...DEEP LAYER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING THE
DRY PATTERN IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. COOLEST NIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM IS
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO COME IN SOME 7 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON AVERAGE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
HALF OF THE 40S INTERIOR TO 54 TO 57 BEACHES. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY AROUND 5 DEGREES SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE
70S. A MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S INTERIOR TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY 80
TO 85 NORTH OF THE BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE GULF ON SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIONED TO OUR EAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
FLOW ALOFT TAKES ON A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROF TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SERIES OF
IMPULSES IN THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACT WITH BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A LOWERING IN CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT AS LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST WITH
A RETURN TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS NEXT IMPULSE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BRINGING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OF FLOW...HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS LIFTING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH OF
THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S CLOSE TO THE BEACHES NEXT WEEK.
/10

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF MARINE ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SUBSIDE
ON FRIDAY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS (MODERATE) OVER
BAYS AND SOUNDS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SUNDAY...AND
FINALLY EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY WHEN A RETURN
(ONSHORE) FLOW REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THEN GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS BY LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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