Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 230255 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
955 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED WELL INTO THE MARINE AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT...AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TO OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER AND MID
MISS RIVER VALLEYS SHIFTS EAST...TO OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
THE SURFACE FRONT THIS SYSTEM PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FA TODAY HAS
REACHED THE COAST AT 20Z AND CONTINUES STEADILY SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEX. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS SHOWING LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT THE
FIRST 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST...THE GREATEST PUSH WILL BE OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO SABINE RIVER. FOR THE FA...THIS MEANS
THAT THE AREA WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT...WITH THE AREA SEEING TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MOISTURE RETURNING QUICKLY
OVER EASTERN-MOST SECTIONS OF THE FA AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST
TOE EASTERLY...BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. FEEL THAT
GUIDANCE IS A BIT OVERDONE IN THIS RESPECT...SO HAVE CUTBACK THE
MOISTURE RETURN OVER EASTERN-MOST SECTIONS OF THE FA. /16

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD WHILE A FAIRLY
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEAKENS GRADUALLY.  DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID SIXTIES CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH
UPPER FIFTIES FURTHER INLAND...THEN TRENDING WARMER TO MID SIXTIES
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A REX BLOCK WAS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE EASTERN STATES BUT NOW LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE
AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA.  AN
UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS MEANWHILE AND LATER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...BUT
THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN OR NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND BRING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE HANDLING
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE UNFORTUNATELY WHICH DEGRADES
CONFIDENCE...BUT A GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD.  WILL START WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE AREA AND INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TREND FROM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO ABOUT 7-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MOVES TO THE
CAROLINA COAST BEFORE OPENING AND GETTING PUSHED OFF BY MOE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MOVEMENT IN THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERE PUSHES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISS
RIVER/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WHERE IT GETS ABSORBED BY BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTH OF THE US/CA BORDER. FOR OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS...THIS MEANS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GRADIENT EASES DURING THE WEEKEND AS
IT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WEAKENING AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  85  64  84  64 /  05  00  05  05  10
PENSACOLA   65  85  67  84  67 /  05  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      68  84  68  84  68 /  05  00  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   55  84  58  84  59 /  05  00  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  53  84  57  84  57 /  05  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      53  85  57  83  58 /  05  00  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   60  84  61  84  61 /  05  00  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$







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