Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 190836
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
236 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

This AM, we have a 1031MB surface ridge elongated across the Gulf
Coast States with clear skies and still much below normal
temperatures across Alabama. Ridging will continue through tonight
but weaken some with the center shifting to the east. In the
upper levels, a large southern tier shortwave over Texas will push
east through tonight toward Louisiana and Mississippi. However,
with our already very dry airmass in place, only some shallow mid
level moisture/cloudiness is expected during the afternoon into
tonight. Otherwise, for today, we are expecting our airmass to
continue to moderate with milder temperatures expected this
afternoon and tonight with light westerly low level flow.

08

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Thursday.

Clouds may increase on Saturday as a shortwave moves across the
region. Westerly flow around 850mb will be responsible for warm
advection and potential cloudiness, which may keep temperatures
from getting as warm as some models indicate. Our forecast is a
bit of a hedge between the cloudy and cooler NAM vs the warmer
ECMWF/GFS. In the midst of a progressive pattern, the shortwave
should move eastward on Sunday and take the clouds along with it.
Meanwhile, a deep-layer ridge will shift eastward across the
region in advance of a strong Plains trough. Temperatures on
Sunday afternoon could approach 70F in the South with mainly mid
60s elsewhere.

Height falls are expected on Monday with the approaching trough,
and moisture return should be sufficient for widespread shower
activity along a cold front. This system should move through
rather quickly with dry and relatively mild weather returning for
Tuesday through Thursday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

High pressure and a very dry atmosphere will produce VFR
conditions the next 24 hours. High pressure slowly moves over the
state and winds will be light and generally westerly.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values will fall to around 25 percent for a couple hours this
afternoon. However, winds will be light, thus critical fire
weather conditions are not expected. Moisture will increase over
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     48  27  54  36  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
Anniston    50  28  56  37  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
Birmingham  50  31  56  41  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  51  31  58  41  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
Calera      51  31  57  39  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
Auburn      51  30  56  40  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
Montgomery  51  30  59  36  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
Troy        52  29  59  37  67 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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