Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 070937
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
337 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

A weak cold front has passed through Central AL this morning,
providing slightly cooler northerly flow to start off the day. Even
though the mid and upper levels are dry, the lower levels are still
saturated. This has resulted in a low stratus deck across much of
area that will moderate our diurnal temperature pattern today even
with some slight warm air advection ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough. End result will be seasonable temperatures with
Highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Models are in good agreement with a dry cold front reaching the area
early Thursday morning, but given the lack of moisture return in the
mid and upper levels, precipitation amounts will be limited. I have
lowered the PoPs and QPF to account for this drying out in the model
forecasts.

25/Owen


.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

A strong cold front will push through central Alabama on Thursday.
The models have all backed off the rainfall potential with the
frontal passage, due to lack of return flow ahead of front and
weak upper level forcing. Reduced rain chances to 20 percent for
Thursday. After days of cloud cover, the good news is the clouds
should finally move out of the area Thursday afternoon as much
drier air advects southward behind the front. Surface winds will
increase on Thursday behind the front with speeds in the 10-15 mph
range. The coldest air mass of the season will invade Alabama
Thursday through Saturday. The coldest daytime temperatures will
be on Friday while the coldest nighttime temperatures will be
Saturday morning as the surface high settles over the area.

Temperatures will moderate Saturday afternoon and Sunday as
surface winds veer to the southeast and south. The next upstream
short wave trof will pass well to the north of Alabama on Sunday.
A trailing cold front will push southward into the area Sunday
night and Monday. Increased rain chances Sunday night and Monday
as the GFS and ECMWF models are indicating higher QPF values along
the front. Both models push the front through the area Monday
night with drier conditions on Tuesday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A cold front is currently making its way across Central Alabama
with a wind shift to the north. Overall though, these winds are
fairly light and 6kts or below. A large area of stratus and
stratocumulus cover much of the state. The challenge this period
will be at what height these clouds form the ceilings. Will make a
shift in thinking that a majority of the time the ceilings will
remain MVFR at 011-022.

Some clouds may try and clear from the east, but should fill back
in and potentially lower. So added a tempo group toward sunrise
for ANB. Additional clearing was taking place northwest, but
believe these clouds will fill back in. There may be some increase
in the ceilings toward the tail end of the period, but if these
clouds hang around til sunset, they may hold on through the night
and did not change at this time.

Patchy fog is possible as temperatures lower overnight. Do not
think the fog will be a problem overall due to winds remaining
4-5kts.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Despite rain free conditions today, humidity levels will remain
on the high side due to cloud cover. A strong cold front will push
through central Alabama on Thursday. The air mass will be too dry
for any appreciable rainfall with the frontal passage. Much
colder air will move into the area Thursday through Saturday.
Rain chances will return on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  36  46  23  41 /   0  20  20  10   0
Anniston    57  38  47  24  42 /   0  20  20  10   0
Birmingham  55  38  46  24  42 /   0  20  20  10   0
Tuscaloosa  56  39  48  25  43 /  10  20  20  10   0
Calera      57  39  48  26  43 /  10  20  20  10   0
Auburn      58  42  52  27  44 /   0  10  20  10   0
Montgomery  60  42  54  28  46 /   0  10  20  10   0
Troy        60  41  54  28  46 /  10  10  20  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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