Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 070920
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016


.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR A SUPER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO SLIDE
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME IN PLACEMENT OF
THE BEST LIFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FIRST WAVE THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID WILL GO GENERALLY WITH A DRY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL..WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

16

&&

.LONG TERM....
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL SPILL
RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROF. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF
TROF AXIS ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEVER GET ABOVE ONE-THIRD ON
AN INCH...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE SATURATED
CONDITIONS IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LAYER FROM -10 TO -18 CELSIUS...
WHICH SUPPORTS ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. FORECAST WILL SHOW A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS TIME SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. AT MOST THERE MAY BE A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

THE COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE. THE
COLDEST MORNING TEMPS MAY BE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. ONLY A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND SWINGING AROUND THE THE WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND
7KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  45  27  36 /   0  20  40  20  20
ANNISTON    55  36  47  28  37 /   0  10  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  38  46  29  38 /   0  10  30  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  48  29  41 /   0  10  20  10  10
CALERA      57  37  47  29  39 /   0  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      56  36  50  29  40 /   0  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  37  53  31  45 /   0   0  20  10  10
TROY        58  37  56  30  45 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.