Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 280531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1231 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

For 06Z Aviation.



Confidence is increasing now that showers and thunderstorms will
begin to impact the area more tonight than this afternoon, so have
removed the severe potential for this afternoon but added it in
for tonight through the overnight hours as the next system moves
into the region. Again activity will develop north and west of the
area so to what extent will it hold together will determine the
extent of the strong to to isolated severe storms. The HRRR has
been hinting at this for several hourly runs and now the ARW is on
board with the activity. Still some uncertainties with the
activity as it will be outflow driven. As for the models the HRRR
does have the best handle on current activity and again has for
several runs now, so will adjust the forecast to closely represent
the HRRR.


Sunday through Friday.

The forecast for Sunday will largely hinge on the MCS expected to
approach the area from the northwest late tonight. General
consensus from the latest CAMs is that a chance of isolated to
scattered showers and storms will linger for a couple hours past
12Z as an outflow boundary moves in. These would likely be in a
weakened state due to the time of day and the continued presence
of strong mid-level capping over the area associated with a strong
EML. This outflow boundary would need to be watched for additional
re-development of showers and storms later in the day, but latest
guidance suggests it will retreat north of the forecast area by
afternoon. This would leave the forecast area in a capped air
mass with a lack of forcing to break the cap during the afternoon,
as 700 mb temperatures will remain around +10-11C with dry air
also present at mid-levels and the front well off to the west. For
the late afternoon, will leave just a slight chances of an
isolated shower/storm across the northern half of Central Alabama.
If a storm develops in the afternoon, it would likely be strong
to severe with hail/wind given high CAPE, steep mid-level lapse
rates, and 35-45 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. But, confidence in
development is too low to include in the HWO at this time.

Greater chances of showers and storms will come after sunset
Sunday night, more likely some time after the 10pm-midnight
timeframe. A decelerating cold front will move in from the
northwest, extending southwestward from low pressure over the
Great Lakes. Weak height falls will occur as the trough over the
north-central US causes the Gulf ridge to be suppressed eastward,
and the forecast area will begin to feel the influence of the
right entrance region of a jet streak over the Ohio Valley.  This
upper-level forcing will result in cooling at 700 mb and allow
the cap to weaken. Will keep an eye on this late Sunday night
period for any strong to severe threat given the instability still
present, but time of day will not be particularly favorable and
bulk shear somewhat marginal.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for Memorial Day
in the southwest to northeast oriented moisture axis along and
south of the front which will have stalled. These will be aided by
weak shortwaves in the southwest flow aloft to the south of the
strong upper low over the Great Lakes. Strong storms will continue
to be possible, and an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.
0-6 km bulk shear values will be marginal at 25-35 kts, mid-
level lapse rates will be weakening, and profiles will be
fairly saturated. Ongoing precipitation may also hamper
destabilization. Therefore, chances of an organized threat are too
low to mention in the HWO at this time.

The forecast area will remain in the moisture axis south of the
old front Tuesday and Wednesday with continued cyclonic upper-
level flow south of the upper low lifting into Ontario. Scattered
showers and storms will continue across the area, with the best
chances around peak heating. For the rest of the week, the upper
low will continue to lift northeastward while ridging develops
over the Plains. A few southern stream waves will try to under-cut
the ridge. A warm and humid air mass will remain in place over
Central Alabama, with continued summertime afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms.



06Z TAF Discussion.

There will be two primary aviation weather concerns in the short
term. A line of intense thunderstorms with strong winds will move
across north central Alabama through 10z. The strongest part of
the convective line was currently over northern Mississippi and
will track across the northern half of Alabama during the
overnight hours. Wind gusts up to 50 knots are possible along the
leading edge of the line. The other area of concern is an area of
low cigs along the Gulf Coast spreading rapidly northward. The
cigs have bases arnd 1500 feet agl and will spread into KMGM and
KTOI by 08z. The convective line to the north may reach the
northern TAF sites before the low cigs can spread this far north.
Conds should improve after 15z as an upper level inversion spreads
back over the area during the day Sunday and limits convective




A few showers and storms will be possible across the north through
Sunday, but most areas will remain warm and dry. The best rain
chances hold off until Sunday night into Monday when the next
upper level system and surface front approach. Critical fire
weather conditions are not expected.


Gadsden     86  69  81  65  80 /  40  60  60  40  50
Anniston    87  69  83  66  79 /  30  50  60  40  60
Birmingham  88  71  83  68  80 /  40  60  60  50  60
Tuscaloosa  89  71  84  67  82 /  30  60  70  50  60
Calera      88  71  83  67  80 /  20  60  70  50  60
Auburn      87  71  84  68  81 /  10  30  60  30  40
Montgomery  90  73  87  68  83 /  10  30  60  40  50
Troy        90  71  86  67  84 /  10  20  60  20  40




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