Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 210944
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
444 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY. UPPER FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SO THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING COOLER DRY AIR BEHIND A FRONT
WHICH IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IN SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO LAKE HURON...EXTENDING INTO A PARENT LOW
OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. WE ARE EXPECTING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BE ON
OUR NORTHERN DOORSTEP BY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MONTHLY AVERAGES BY ONLY
A DEGREE OR TWO. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
VALUES...MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH OF I-10.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE LIFTED INDEX IS PLUS 1.5 TO 2
DEGREES C...SUFFICIENTLY STABLE TO SUPPRESS VIRTUALLY ALL CONVECTION
TODAY SAVE A SHOWER OR TWO. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONLY NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH TODAY AND CAPE ABOUT 400...SO THERE IS LITTLE
FUEL FOR CONVECTION AND LITTLE MEANS TO FIRE IT. 77/BD

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING...SLOWING A LITTLE DURING THE DAY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY MID
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNSET. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AS 850-500MB SFC WINDS STAY NORTH-NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A NARROW BAND
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND THIS MOISTURE SUPPORTS 20-30% RAIN CHANCES IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO PEAK HEATING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY SUNSET. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE MID 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THE FIRST TASTE OF AUTUMN COMES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG
RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH TROUGHING GRADUALLY
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY INCREASING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850-500 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND TAPS INTO DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH THU-SAT...WITH A SOLID 40% CHANCE ADVERTISED BY NEXT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS AND SWAMPS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WE DO NOT INTEND TO INCLUDE FOG IN ANY OF
THE LOCAL TAFS...NOR DO WE EXPECT MUCH OF IT AREA WIDE.. CALM TO
LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT BECOMES SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST
TODAY. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...AREA BUOYS INDICATE NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED INTO THE
15 KNOT AND BELOW RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LESS THAN 10
KNOTS IN THE BAYS. A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO
MONDAY...WITH WINDS OFFSHORE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WE HAVE BEEN
WATCHING PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF TUESDAY. A LARGE HIGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD BEHIND IT
AND ELONGATE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO BRING AN EPISODE OF STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING SIGNIFICANT WAVES...HIGHEST ONE THIRD
BEING AS HIGH AS 8 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A
COMBINATION OF THE WNA WAVE AND SWAN MODELS...AND THE BRETSCHNEIDER
METHODOLOGY...WERE USED WHILE ASSUMING A 150 NM EASTERLY FETCH AS A
GENERATING AREA. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  67  89  62  85 /  05  10  30  05  10
PENSACOLA   89  70  90  67  86 /  10  10  30  10  10
DESTIN      84  73  88  70  86 /  05  10  30  10  10
EVERGREEN   91  65  87  56  85 /  05  10  20  05  10
WAYNESBORO  91  65  85  56  85 /  05  10  20  05  05
CAMDEN      91  65  85  55  84 /  05  10  20  05  05
CRESTVIEW   90  64  90  60  86 /  05  10  30  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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