Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 221730
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Very complex forecast situation through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours tonight. Southerly winds
will remain sustained at 15 knots with gusts up to around 30
knots within passing showers and storms this afternoon but should
subside after sunset. Ceilings will generally be borderline
MVFR/IFR outside of rain and storms but will drop to IFR/LIFR in
and near convection. Visibility will generally be at VFR levels
but will drop to a mile or less within heavy rain and storms. Low
cigs will persist through the period. 05/RR


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

.IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Area radars detecting
eastern outer rain bands associated with Tropical Storm Cindy as
it makes landfall in southwestern Louisiana. Numerous to definite
rain showers along with embedded scattered thunderstorms will
persist throughout the day. Some of the showers and storms will
again be capable of producing periods of heavy rainfall and brief
isolated tornadoes. The precipitation will then taper off from
southeast to northwest tonight as Cindy continues to move
northward, but scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should
persist past midnight west of the Alabama River.

A moderate to strong southerly wind flow will persist through
today, especially along the coastal sections. As a result, a
Coastal Flood Warning will remain in effect for southwest Alabama
through 6 pm today, and a Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in
effect for the western Florida panhandle. A High Surf Advisory
and a High Rip Current Risk also remains in effect along the
beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. In
addition...expanded the Wind Advisory to include the central
portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties for today.

The periods of heavy rainfall will mainly occur today and this
evening, with widespread total rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to
3 inches. Locally higher amounts of 4 to 8 inches are certainly
possible, especially where the more persistent rain bands set up.

High temperatures today will be in the lower 80s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 70s inland areas, and
upper 70s along the coast. /22

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...With the remnants
of Tropical Storm Cindy swept up, up and away in the mid-latitude
westerlies, the plume of deep tropical moisture over the local
area pushes west and north as it`s squeezed between high pressure
building overhead from the western Atlantic and a sagging frontal
boundary draped over the central Mississippi River Valley. With
this shift, expect shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday and
Saturday to remain mostly limited to the western and northern
halves of the local area, with the best chances west and north of
Interstate 65. Meanwhile, winds continue to relax and temperatures
return to near-seasonal levels, with afternoon highs in the upper
80`s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70`s each day and
night, respectively. /49

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Heading into Sunday, the
aforementioned frontal boundary continues to push southeast
before stalling over or just north of the local area. As a result,
expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue across the
local area into early next week as a weak mid-level impulse takes
advantage of the underlying summertime airmass south of the
stalled front. The front is then progged to sag south to the coast
by midweek, perhaps providing some relief from the wet weather
for inland areas, before pushing off to the east as the next
impulse approaches and unsettled weather returns. The return of
unsettled weather through the long term period will be accompanied
by below-seasonal daytime temperatures, with highs in the low to
mid 80`s each afternoon. Lows will remain in the low to mid 70`s
each night. /49

MARINE...Strong southerly flow will continue to bring hazardous
conditions for small craft over the bays, sounds and coastal
waters of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle and out 60
nautical miles through early Friday. Large swells will persist
into Thursday. Small craft will need to exercise caution through
Friday evening until winds and seas subside further. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630-633>635.

&&

$$

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