Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 020953
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
453 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION ORIENTED MUCH THE SAME.
AS THE TROF AXIS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND DEEPER LAYER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND ADVERTISE LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
PRIMARILY COASTAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
EARLY MORNING COASTAL CONVECTION WELL...AND THIS MODEL TOO KEEPS MOST
ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WHERE CHANCE
POPS ARE EXPECTED...THEN MORE ISOLATED OVER INTERIOR ZONES LATER IN
THE DAY. MAINLY EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTION...BUT THERE IS A
MARGINAL THREAT OF A FEW BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS OVER EASTERN ZONES.
OVERALL THIS SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MARGINAL...BUT SOME
STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS BUT PRIMARILY EXPECT GENERAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION ONLY
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY UPPER TROF TO THE EAST. WHILE INITIALLY LIMITED
LAST EVENING DUE TO WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS REDUCING RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA. MOST OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...AS WELL AS OVER INTERIOR
ALABAMA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. IN GENERAL FOG IS NOT
DENSE...ALTHOUGH IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING TODAY. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

THE MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IN GENERALLY LOW.

12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO MEANDER EASTWARD...ENDING UP OVER THE CAROLINAS BY
FRIDAY EVENING...OPENING AS IT GOES. MOST OF THE FA REMAINS UNDER
GENERAL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXCEPTION IS NEAR COASTAL AREAS
SEEING AN AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE MOVING INLAND. THE FA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
ENOUGH FOR TSRA TO BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...BUT BY
THURSDAY...THE FA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. TEMPS REMAIN UNDER THE
SEASONABLY WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE EASTERN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...LEAVING AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST. THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED A GENERALLY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WASHES
OUT...ALLOWING A SURFACE RIDGE (ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE CARIBBEAN) TO BUILD WEST A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND RE- ESTABLISH A MORE ORGANIZED (BUT STILL
LIGHT) ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPS
WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS FILLS A BIT AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS FLATTENS THE PLAINS RIDGE AS IT MOVES IT
SOUTHWEST A BIT. THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSH A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING
WEEK...THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES...TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE. TEMPS REMAIN AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN AN INFLUENCE ON THE FA.


&&

.AVIATION...
02.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS RESULTING IN
IFR TO OCNLY LIFR CONDITIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE FOG IS MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN ZONES (THE LOCATION THAT SAW THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY). LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A WEAK TROF PERSISTING
JUST INLAND OVER THE ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A LIGHT WIND
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH A PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT BECOMING MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE
EACH NIGHT AND VERY EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...
WITH DRAINAGE AFFECTS. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH
SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  68  89  68  90 /  30  20  30  10  05
PENSACOLA   84  71  89  72  89 /  30  30  30  10  10
DESTIN      82  73  86  74  87 /  40  30  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   86  66  91  66  92 /  30  20  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  85  65  89  64  91 /  20  05  10  10  05
CAMDEN      85  65  90  65  91 /  20  10  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   86  67  92  66  92 /  40  30  30  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16



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