Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 261133 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours
before scattered showers and thunderstorms develop during the
afternoon hours. IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible in and around
scattered storms through early evening. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...Water vapor clearly shows
an upper low spinning over the area this morning. This is aiding the
development of showers and thunderstorms over far northern zones. As
temps increase today, showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage. Meanwhile, a weak front will begin approaching northern
portions of the area late today into tonight and stall across
northern zones late tonight. The combination of the upper low and
approaching front will lead to the development of scattered showers
and storms late this morning into the afternoon. Highs today will be
slightly cooler due to the additional coverage of showers and storms.
Outside of convection...hot conditions will continue with highs in
the mid 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will
fall into the upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. 13/JC

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...Weak and nearly
stationary cold front will linger over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday...drifting only very slowly to the south. By Wednesday
night the front is expected to finally move offshore in response to a
large mid/upper level trof that develops over the eastern half of the
country. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible
each day as the front drifts slowly south across the region...mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours...although some isoalted convection
will be possible overnight as well (especially over eastern and
southern portions of the fcst area). With the front over the
area and the gradually deepening trof aloft expect diurnal temperature
trends to finally begin to cool somewhat during the short term
period. On Tuesday expect highs to be in the upper 80s and lower
90s...and in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Even a more
noticeable change in min temps this period...with Tuesday and
Wednesday night lows ranging from the upper 50s well inland to upper
60s and near 70 at the coast. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Upper trof deamplifies during
the long term period with a strong surface high pressure ridge
building into the forecast area from the northwest. The cooler and
quite a bit drier airmass will bring a more fall like weather pattern
to the region. Cooler temps and rainfree conditions are expected.
Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s Thursday and
Friday...then slightly warmer but still pleasant mid 80s Saturday and
Sunday. Thursday...Friday and Saturday nights overnight low temps
will generally range from the mid 50s over interior counties to the
mid 60s at the coast. 12/DS

MARINE...Light winds will continue over the marine area through mid
week. A cold front will move across the marine area Wednesday into
Thursday with a moderate northerly flow in the wake of the front
through the end of the week. Seas initially 1 foot or less early this
week...building to around 2 to 3 feet by weeks end. 13/JC

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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