Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 181018
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
518 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS STARTING
TO SHOW A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
APPROXIMATELY 60NM EAST ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER MEANDERING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER TRACKING NE
TOWARDS THE EAST FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALOFT GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOSTLY OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
STRETCHING SOUTH TO BEYOND 60NM FROM SHORE AND INLAND MOSTLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS HEAVIER
RAINBANDS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE THOUGH BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES
DROPPED FROM THE WATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS HAVE MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO THE EARLIER FORECAST MOSTLY KEEPING SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY THROUGH UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN. FOR TONIGHT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A GOOD
NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC. 32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ALTANTIC LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SOON AFTER.  UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY SUNDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES.  TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18.18Z FOLLOWED
BY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 20.09Z THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 20.12Z. LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND PERSISTENT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY THEN TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND
DESTIN STRETCHING EASTWARD. SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  50  76  53  79 /  60  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   66  53  75  56  76 /  80  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      65  54  72  57  73 /  90  40  10  05  00
EVERGREEN   63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  47  76  49  80 /  50  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   64  49  73  49  77 /  90  40  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





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