Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMOB 200541
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...RAINS HAVE CERTAINLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAINS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE LEFT THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THE SAME
AS EARLIER ADVERTISED...GENERALLY IN THE 70-80 PERCENT CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR EXPECTED LOWS AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH WIND AND
CLOUD COVER (AS WELL AS CONTINUED RAINFALL) SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS THERE EITHER. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...20.06Z TAF CYCLE...INTERMINTTENT LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VISBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS...RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TRANSITIONING FROM MVFR AND FINALLY VFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST
GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON]...A SECOND GROUP OF
UPPER ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA ATTM.
THIS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...DO FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF DECREASED
COVERAGE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING IT DOWN DUE TO THE
FLUID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE RAIN ENDING
SOONEST...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ON TO THE RAIN LONGER. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ENDING. FEEL LAST
REMNANTS OF RAIN WILL BE EAST OF I65 BY NOON SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE WENT WITH A
TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED TEMP RANGE. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE RAIN
ENDING SOONEST...IT IS...AS EXPECTED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. HAVE
BUMPED THE GFS NUMBERS DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. /16

[SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINLY PERSIST BUT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.4 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.

LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
19.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS/VISBYS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS FROM THE WEST.
/16

MARINE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE
GETTING GETTING DRAWN NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT BACK OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. EACH
OF THE PRECEDING PIECES OF ENERGY WITH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SPEEDS RISING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES. SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  56  48  62  50 /  80  50  20  40  50
PENSACOLA   49  59  51  63  54 /  70  30  20  50  70
DESTIN      51  60  52  63  58 /  60  30  20  60  70
EVERGREEN   45  57  44  59  48 /  90  50  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  43  56  41  60  43 /  80  40  10  30  30
CAMDEN      44  57  41  58  44 /  90  50  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   47  59  48  63  51 /  70  40  20  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.