Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 052104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE TO SPIN IN PLACE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE LOCAL AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WELL
ESTABLISHED AND DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE LARGE
UPPER TROF TO THE EAST AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITIONED FROM MEXICO...NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN
INDICATION OF THE DEPTH OF THE DRIER AIR IS REFLECTED IN THE LOW
PWATS...(NEAR A HALF INCH / ABOUT 50% OF NORMAL). NARROW RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN INTO
TEXAS...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ALLOWS FOR GOOD COOLING
PROCESSES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SINK TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INTERIOR TO 53 TO 56 BEACHES.
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES LIFT TO A
RANGE FROM 74 TO 78. /10

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AND EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW RETURNING OVER THE
WEEKEND.

LOW TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURE SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AREAS...WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 82 TO 86 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST. /22

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH A SECOND UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF WESTERN CANADA...WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS CREATES A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS...BRINGING PRECIP
BACK INTO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
MONDAY...AND ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. /22

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA ON FRIDAY THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS AS COOLER AIR FLOWING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE LAND ZONES RESULT IN A TIGHTENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND SEAS TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE WEST
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      50  77  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   53  78  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      56  77  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   45  76  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  46  76  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      44  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   46  78  47  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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