Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 011130 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period
outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms through this


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/...A mid and upper level
trough will move slowly eastward today, lingering across eastern
areas. Meanwhile, upper level heights will increase through tonight
as an upper ridge builds eastward out of the southern plains. A drier
airmass will move into western and northern portions of the area
through the afternoon, resulting in lower rain chances. The lingering
trough over eastern areas combined with abundant deep layer moisture
will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast mainly east of I-65. The building upper ridge will result in
warmer temps with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lows tonight will
range from the low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...An elongated
shortwave located across the central Florida peninsula, remnants of
an earlier upper trof, begins to advance slowly westward into the
northeast Gulf through Sunday night as deep layer ridging gradually
builds over the Gulf. A shortwaves trof and an associated surface low
meanwhile advance across the Plains and move to near the mid
Mississippi River valley by Sunday night. A very weak and diffuse
surface trof will be present over the forecast area on Saturday which
then dissipates on Sunday as the Plains system approaches. Deep layer
moisture gradually increases over the region through the period as a
light deep layer northerly flow transitions to southerly, with
precipitable water values near a seasonable 1.5 inches increasing to
around 1.75 inches or about 115 percent of normal. Given the weak
surface features as well as general lack of deep layer forcing and
fairly dry model soundings, will continue with a dry forecast for
Saturday, then slight chance pops return for Sunday as deep layer
moisture increases with model soundings showing some improvement.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s each day, and heat index values
near 105 will be possible. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland
to the upper 70s near the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...The shortwave trof continues
into the extreme southeast states through Tuesday and gradually
weakens through Thursday. While a surface ridge persists over the
northern Gulf through the period, a surface low located initially
near the mid Mississippi river valley weakens while continuing eastward
and into the western Atlantic by mid week. Deep layer moisture
continues to increase on Monday with precipitable water values
increasing to near 2.0 inches and similar values persist through the
remainder of the period. Forcing remains weak through the period
which makes it difficult to determine the best potential for
convective development. Have opted to continue with generally low
pops through the period mostly in the slight chance category except
for chance pops mainly over the northeastern portion of the area
where a marginally better convective environment will be present due
to the shortwave trof moving into the extreme southeast states. Highs
will be in the lower to mid 90s each day while lows range from the
lower/mid 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s near the coast. /29

MARINE...High pressure will build westward across the northern Gulf
through early next week. This will maintain a generally light
onshore flow...except becoming northerly near the coast at night.
Seas will remain 1 to 2 feet.


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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