Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 221843 CCA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

&&

.UPDATE...Late morning surface analysis shows the surface cold
front making its way across central portions of MS and into
southeast LA. Southerly low level flow continues across our
forecast area in advance of the front, with surface dewpoints
rising into the upper 50s inland to lower to mid 60s near the
immediate coast. Regional radar imagery shows two areas of
convection impacting our area as of noon CST: one linear complex
of showers and a few storms extending across central and interior
southwest AL (the southern extent located over Choctaw and
northern Clarke counties), while a secondary complex of convection
is moving into our Gulf marine zones and approaching coastal
portions of the CWA.

The forecast through the afternoon still looks on track and do not
anticipate significant changes. Scattered to locally numerous
showers and isolated embedded storms will continue to develop over
inland portions of the forecast area through the afternoon.
Overall severe potential remains quite marginal given that MLCAPE
will be mostly less than 500 J/KG, and that the stronger shear
will be lifting northeast of our region through the afternoon. The
strongest storms will likely affect the offshore coastal waters
where better instability will be located, and may have to monitor
a few of these storms if they can approach the immediate coast.
/21

&&

.MARINE...Areas of dense marine fog will likely continue to affect
Mobile Bay, the Mississippi sound east of Pascagoula, and the
offshore marine waters from Pascagoula to Pensacola out 20 NM
through the remainder of the afternoon as a very moist airmass
(dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s) continues to advect over
cool near shore waters (water temperatures around 50). Observations
indicate visibility has dropped to around 1/10 mile near the
Bayway/Causeway and USCG station. We have issued a Marine Dense Fog
Advisory for this portion of the marine area through the remainder of
the afternoon. Will monitor closely to determine if this advisory
will need to be extended farther eastward. Numerous showers and
storms will spread over the marine area through the afternoon, a few
of which will be capable of producing strong wind gusts over 35
knots, very heavy rain, and frequent lightning. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...MVFR to localized IFR ceilings will impact the
region this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
Localized IFR or lower visibility will also be possible across
locations near the immediate coast (particularly around KBFM) this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous SHRA and a few TSRA will move
across the area this afternoon. Localized IFR or lower conditions
are also possible near storms along with localized stronger gusts.
A drier airmass will arrive behind the front this evening, with a
return to VFR conditions expected along with winds becoming west
to northwest. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>632-
     650.

&&

$$

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