Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 011034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
01S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA
COAST NEAR 04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO
05N BETWEEN 14W AND 22W...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH
CIRRUS STREAMING W TO E IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE
SURFACE...A WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC RIDGING IS SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N83W. THIS IS
PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KT...WITH LIGHTER FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN THIS MORNING. THE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW TO HISPANIOLA.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
EXTEND OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHER
PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ARE NOTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN BETWEEN 14N AND 18N. TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO
20 KT DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WINDS
NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND S OF CENTRAL CUBA.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
...EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 19N73W. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLC US COAST IS
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AS OF 0900
UTC EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO 26N79W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N42W TO
25N54W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT S
OF 23N IS DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT.
A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE WESTERNMOST HIGH OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
28N55W. THE EASTERNMOST HIGH OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 23N50W.
FARTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES
THE EASTERN ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 10N22W TO 7N29W IS VOID OF CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLC US COAST WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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