Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 201805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SCATTERED STRONG ALSO IS FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS
FEATURE. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS THE CLOSEST TO THE WAVE...FROM 7N TO
15N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N50W 19N49W 14N48W
10N48W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 49W AND
50W. OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS CLOSER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N53W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.92 IN TRINIDAD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL...NEAR 18N16W...TO 14N26W 14N40W...TO THE 11N53W SPECIAL
FEATURE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 8N57W. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N98W CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES
FROM 19N IN MEXICO TO 28N ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 93W AND
103W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS TO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N76W TO 27N81W
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SIDE...FROM 90W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 88W. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
28N63W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB
GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTAL BORDER.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SITES.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

IN TEXAS...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI
AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AND/OR HAVE
BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN AREAS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL
AIRPORT...AND IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. IN LOUISIANA...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE CHARLES
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IN
ALABAMA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN GULF
SHORES. IN FLORIDA...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KEY WEST. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE GULF OF MEXICO 12 HOUR FORECAST ALONG YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE REST OF HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 53W
AND 80W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN GENERAL FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 55W AND 80W...AND SPECIFICALLY FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN
62W AND 68W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM SANTIAGO TO PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...FROM THE CURRENT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST NORTHEAST TO
EAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.92 IN TRINIDAD.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALSO
COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.92 IN TRINIDAD... 0.51 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO...AND 0.12 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...ATLC AND CARIBBEAN LOW PRES NEAR 11N53W 1009 MB MOVING
NW 10 KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 13N50W. WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH S TO SW WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
LOW...AND WITHIN 90 OF TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND 76W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
CARIBBEAN SEA 12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 17N W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 32N46W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 30W FROM
20N NORTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT AT THIS MOMENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH 28N63W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N87W...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
COASTAL BORDER.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...LOW PRES NEAR 11N53W 1009 MB MOVING NW 10
KT WITH TROUGH NE TO 13N50W. WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH S TO SW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW...AND
WITHIN 90 OF TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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