Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 031716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO
04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N16W TO 03N32W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-01S AND E OF 28W...AND FROM 04N-
02S AND W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AND FAIR WEATHER
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLANTIC. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N85W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 24N-25N. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO
18N90W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 15N83W TO 20N73W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W-81W AFFECTING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUBA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS N
OF PANAMA FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS W REACHING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER
E OF 80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
FLOW FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 65W-76W. A LIGHTER NW FLOW IS W OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ISLAND.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER HAITI DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB SURFACE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N80W.
TO THE E...A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N59W EXTENDS ITS
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN ANALYZED AS A
COLD FRONT FROM 36N53W TO 23N71W AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
THAT POINT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
71W-78W. A BROAD 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N48W
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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