Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 182352

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a low pressure system deepening over NW
Atlc waters. The front enters the SW N Atlc near 31N67W SW across
eastern Cuba to Costa Rica. A strong pressure gradient between
this low and a broad high pressure anchored over NE Louisiana
supports gale-force winds north of 30N within 180 nm west of the
front. These conditions will dissipate by 19/00Z. However, near
gale-force winds will prevail through early Friday morning as the
front weaken east of the Bahamas. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and
the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC,
for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 04N08W and
continues to 0N21W. The ITCZ begins near 0N21W and continues
along 0N40W to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 01S to 05N between 10W and 24W. Isolated showers are from 0N
to 06N between 30W and 50W.



A surface ridge is established across the Gulf in the wake of a
cold front that currently extends across the SW N Atlc, western
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed
as a surface trough in the far western Gulf from 27N96W to the
western Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh northerly winds across the basin with locally
strong winds in the Straits of Florida. Winds will weaken during
the next 24 hours as the pressure gradient relaxes across the
basin. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will set-up again
across the western Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on
the next cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast Sunday


The tail of a cold front extends across eastern Cuba SW to Costa
Rica. This feature are underneath a mid-level divergent flow that
along shallow moisture supports scattered showers S of 20N and W
of 76W. Latest scatterometer data show fresh to near gale-force
winds in the NW Caribbean behind the front. The cold front is
forecast to stall across the Windward Passage SW to NE Nicaragua
by Friday morning before dissipating Saturday morning. Strong
trade winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia coast Friday
night and then expand across much of the central Caribbean over
the weekend as high pressure builds north of the area.


Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers prevail across the island
as a cold front rapidly approaches from the west. The front is
forecast to stall in the Windward Passage Friday morning and then
dissipate during Sat morning. This scenario will allow for the
continuation of cloudy skies and potential for scattered showers
through Saturday. Fresh northeast winds are expected across the
Windward Passage through Saturday night as high pressure builds
across the western Atlantic in the wake of the above mentioned


A cold front is moving across the SW N Atlc waters with strong to
gale-force winds west of it. See the Special Features section for
more details about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. In
the central Atlc, an upper-level low continue to support scattered
moderate convection from 23N to 29N between 37W-43W. Otherwise, the
Azores high dominates the remainder central and east Atlantic.
Gale-force winds behind the front will decrease to 30 kt tonight
as the front continue to move towards the central Atlc waters
through Friday. The front will then dissipate over the central
basin Saturday through Sunday.

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