Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230053
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
653 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Will need to monitor clouds and temps for impact on Tuesday
morning lows. No changes planned for this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Cloud trends look to be the main challenge. Impacts should be
minimal. 12z guidance in good agreement. Satellite imagery
indicates extensive cloud cover across the region. As the central
CONUS storm propagates northeast, low level ridging will build
into the region. Given this synoptic set-up, low level moisture
will remain in place and anticipate cloudy sky to remain. A weak
shortwave propagating across Canada on Tuesday will send a weak
warm front through the region. Kept the forecast dry as the
likelihood for measurable precip is very low with overall forcing
toward the weaker end of the spectrum. With that said, model
soundings indicate no ice crystals in cloud, so if precip does
occur it would most likely be freezing drizzle.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Models continue showing general agreement through the extended
period and will keep a blended soln for this forecast package...with
the main focus on a generally progressive weather pattern through
the period.

Through Friday...looking for the upper level ridge to shift east
over the forecast area. Return flow as the surface high retreats
into the Ohio valley will allow for a slow warming trend...with most
areas reaching the freezing mark or better ahead of the next system.

For Friday into Friday night...a surface low pressure system crosses
the region. Moisture is limited with the system but some light
precipitation can be expected. Behind the low...cooler temperatures
will prevail for a day or so...but overall trend is to stay near
seasonal norms versus another arctic outbreak. Temps will rebound
again for the end of the period...with temps remaining near or
slightly above normal. Little precipitation is forecast for the end
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Stratus impacting all TAF sites with IFR CIGs at DVL and MVFR
elsewhere. Expecting clouds to persist into the overnight and
Tuesday. IFR CIGs may move into the FAR and GFK locations sometime
Tuesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...JK



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