Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1236 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

No changes for the current period.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Much of today will be spent between one weather system departing
from Minnesota on the east and one approaching system coming into
North Dakota for the west. The cold front that passed through the
area on Saturday will push across the western Great Lakes today,
leaving a slightly cooler and markedly drier airmass in its wake.

This mornings low temperatures should 20 degrees cooler than
Saturday morning, but with dry air and abundant sunshine...
daytime highs will easily to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A moderate westerly surface flow will turn southwesterly through
the day, with H5 shortwave ridging moving through aloft... making
for an overall pleasant autumnal day.

Another H5 shortwave trof will track into the area from the west
late today... bringing increasing clouds into eastern ND by late
afternoon and scattered light rain showers across the northeast ND
and northern MN during the evening and overnight periods.
Precipitation amounts should be a scant hundredth or two over
areas mainly along and north of U.S. Highway 2.

Cloudy skies and persisting light winds overnight will help to
Keep overnight lows in the 40s over most of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

A more active and progressive pattern expected this upcoming week
with cooler air masses intruding over the region bringing
temperatures closer to seasonally normal. There continues to be
signals for the season`s first snow Thursday over most of the region
with some chances lingering into next weekend.

On Monday, a shortwave trough embedded within the left front
quadrant of a quasi-zonal upper jet amplifies into a longwave
trough. In response, a surface low passes through the southern
Canadian provinces with swift moving cold front moving across the
region from the northwest. This will bring the chance for
scattered light rain showers Monday with best chances residing
near and north of the US 2 corridor as well as within northwestern
Minnesota. Mostly dry conditions return late Monday lasting
through Tuesday as the surface low continues eastward, longwave
trough axis moving east, and a surface ridge moving over the
region. Behind the cold front Monday, gusty northwesterly winds
are expected during the day, especially in eastern North
Dakota/far northwestern Minnesota, with gusts reaching into the
lower 30s mph. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement with
a stout yet compact shortwave trough and surface low moving into
north-central Minnesota out of eastern Manitoba with its
precipitation skewed east of its center. This keeps most of the
CWA dry with only the Lake of the Woods area holding precipitation
chances at the moment. Potential precipitation in this area could
be a mix of rain and snow as cooler temperatures will have
already been in place and timing towards the evening will favor
cooler temperatures in the mid 30s.

Wednesday is expected to be mostly dry as an upper level ridge moves
through the area behind the aforementioned compact shortwave trough
and ahead of the next shortwave trough and deepening Alberta low.
This deepening Alberta low moves over the region late Wednesday into
Thursday. Model guidance continues to differ on development and
location with this system, although they are coming into better
agreement with regards of general possible impacts, main interest
with snow potential. Overnight temperatures will be in the lower to
mid 30s with daytime temperatures moderating into the 40s.
Temperatures aloft cold enough for dendritic development leaving the
potential for this season`s first widespread snow chances,
especially during the overnight hours late Wednesday into early
Thursday and Thursday overnight. Best chances for snow look to
remain near the international border with light accumulations
generally light, although confidence is too low to give exact
placement and accumulation. Whether or not this low stalls over the
region or progresses into the Great Lakes region will determine
Friday and Saturday`s precipitation chances with the ECMWF favoring
the first scenario and GFS/CMC the second.

Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be seasonable with highs
in the 50s, lows in the 30s. With colder air being dragged down from
the developing Alberta low on Thursday, high temperatures Thursday
through Saturday are forecast to remain in the upper 30s to lower
40s and low temperatures in the 20s. Again, deteriorating
confidence bleeds into the temperature forecast Thursday forward.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

All sites are VFR with some high and mid level clouds approaching
from the west. A few of the model solutions have some MVFR
ceilings later in the period as an upper low moves across the area
tonight. However, looking at obs under the low currently over
Saskatchewan, not too many are showing low ceilings. Will include
some mention of low VFR ceilings but will leave out of the TAFs
for now and re-evaluate as the time approaches. Scattered rain
showers will move through but uncertain if they will impact any
TAF sites so will leave off of the point forecast. Winds from the
southwest will be gusty for a while this afternoon, going up above
20 kts in some spots. Winds will shift around to the west then
northwest by late in the period, with increasing speeds mainly
west of the Red River. KDVL could see some winds close to 25 kts
sustained with gust above 30 kts tomorrow morning.




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