Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 310435
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

kept 20 pop just in case overnight in that 850 mb moisture
transport zone JMS-DVL region. But the last shower dissipated in
the last hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Forecast challenge continues to be low end pop chances through the
remainder of the weekend.

Model guidance continues to indicate varying pcpn
potential/coverage tonight and tomorrow in general warm advection
regime. Little in the way of surface convergence which makes fine
tuning locations difficult. weak upstream impulses in increasingly
zonal flow may provide enough upper support to keep spotty pcpn
going however confidence at this point not very high. Will focus
pops this evening mainly across the northern fa where current
convection is located vcnty weak upper wave. Later shifts will
have to adjust overnight pops if pcpn holds together.

Lower confidence on pcpn potential continues on Sunday. Warm
advection levels off and low level forcing continues to be weak.
With degree of uncertainty did not make any major changes to
inherited pops other than to blend with neighboring offices.
Temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover however most areas
will see maximum temperatures at or a little above average.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Convection developing out in the western Dakotas will begin to
spread eastward Sunday Night. SPC has kept the marginal risk area
for severe over northeast ND. Upper level forcing will be weak and
deep layer shear remains on the low side over our area. A few
strong/severe storms could impact the area Sun Night, especially if
convection to the west becomes more organized, with at least a
modest southerly 850 mb jet developing and increasing deep layer
moisture.

As the upper low to the north across Canada shifts eastward on
Monday, mid-level wind fields will begin to increase, enhancing deep
layer shear. Plenty of low-level moisture will be present with
precipitable water values expected to be around 1.5 inches. Forcing
will again be weak, but a weak surface boundary could help to fire
off some storms in the afternoon and evening with a few severe
storms possible.  Details are still somewhat unclear given the
potential for storms to be ongoing during the morning. It will be a
warm and muggy day, with temps up into the 80s and dew points
nearing 70.

Storms will gradually exit Monday Night with weak high pressure
building into the region for Tuesday. Humidity levels will be lower
compared with Monday but it will be quite warm again.

A stronger upper level wave will approach on Wednesday with a cold
front potentially moving across the area around peak heating.
Wednesday afternoon and evening right now shows the best potential
for severe storms this week given the stronger shear profiles and
better forcing. Another warm and humid day is expected, with highs
possibly around 90 over the southern RRV.

Quieter and cooler weather is expected following this system for the
end of the week into the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

VFR thru the pd with south wind 5 to 10 kts overnight and 10 to 20
kts Sunday. Some areas of high based CU/AC or cirrus. Toward
03-06z Mon period there is an increased chance of t-storms moving
into DVL region.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Riddle


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