Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 022346
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BRINGING
SCATTERED SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO PCPN. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL
SUNSET WHEN THE INVERSION SETS UP AND WINDS TAPER OFF...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A BIT OF A
TIGHT GRADIENT. THE SFC RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST AS A WHOLE REMAINS ON TARGET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS...RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF
THIS UPPER WAVE. THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE A STRONGER WAVE ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE GEM IS MUCH QUICKER AS
WELL...HAVING FORCING/PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BRINGING THE FORCING INTO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY GOING WITH A CHANCE ALONG THE FAR SOUTH AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH (AND LEAD SHORTWAVES) APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GEM ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRINGING INSTABILITY/PRECIP INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET WITH INVERSION SET UP...AND WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AFT AROUND 15Z WITH INVERSION BREAK. LITTLE TO NO PCPN
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPKINS


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