Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 111001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 359 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northeast MT.
Upper low will move across the area today and produce light snow.
Radar indicated/surface obs indicated light snow has moved into
southeast ND and the far western zones. Precip appears to be
decreasing slightly in intensity as precip moves east. Snow should
be quite fluffy and light today.

Water vapor loop also indicated a trough digging over northwest
Canada. Trough will shift into central Canada on Mon. Shot of
cooler air will precede the trough and move into the area Sun night.
Another shot of cooler air will move into the area late Tue. Have
increased winds a bit for Mon through Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

The Wednesday and Thursday time frame features a closed 500mb low
tracking south of James Bay. A pocket of very cold air at 850mb is
associated with this low, however temperatures will depend on cloud
cover. At the sfc, it appears high pressure will shift from the west
to south of the FA, keeping some gradient over the area. Therefore,
wind speeds could be a little gusty, which may result in hazardous
wind chills at times. As the 500mb low moves south and east of James
Bay, the flow over the Northern Plains turns a little more zonal.
This should result in some minimal thermal recovery on Friday as a
Colorado Low also takes shape. The models depict some light snow
spreading over the area on Friday into Saturday morning. This is
quite a ways off yet, but this system has the potential to bring
decent amounts of snow to portions of the Northern Plains. Where
exactly remains to be seen. At this point, models would favor areas
south and east of us, but will have to watch. Behind this system, a
reinforcing shot of cold air moves back in.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

CIGS/VSBY to slowly lower into mvfr range from SW-NE overnight as
snow band gradually moves in. Have delayed lower cigs over the ne
until morning as will take time to overcome dry air.




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