Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 061826
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT INVOLVES ADDING DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST...SUCH AS BETTER TIMING OF HIGHER POPS/SNOW ALONG WITH A
MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE TREND. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIP
ACROSS A PORTION OF NW MN...AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY HERE. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...AND KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER
AN INCH. AT 06Z...SFC LOW WILL BE JUST NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...AND AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES A RIDGE OF 925MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY. HOURLY TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN A COLD FROPA AFTER 06Z. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT. THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER DOES NOT CORRESPOND TO THE
STRONGEST AREA OF FORCING...SO STILL THINKING A MAINLY SNOW EVENT
(BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS MORE ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING WEAK
RETURNS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXPECTED TO CUT OFF WITH
JET STREAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA BY 84 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PRODUCE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH JET STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH FAVORABLE WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND +6C TO +9C. THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A COOL FRONT THROUGH TUE/WED...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS SOME
COOLING BUT NOT MUCH. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR EVEN WARMER WEATHER IN
THE ECMWF TOWARDS NEXT THU/FRI. WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WITH MINIMAL SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
MARCH SUNSHINE...WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL DEALING WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY VFR. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
WITH LIGHT SNOW/LOWER CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THINGS VFR AS NOT A
LOT OF LOWER CONDITIONS FOUND UPSTREAM. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THEN TOWARD SAT MORNING THE
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...GODON



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