Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 272138
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
538 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITHIN A HUMID AIR MASS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES OUR AREA...DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP WW 227. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

5 PM UPDATE... CONVECTIVE LN AHD OF A PRE-FRNTL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TRUDGE EWD EARLY THIS EVE...AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR
FA BY 6-8 PM. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL
PSBL IN PTNS OF PIKE/SULLIVAN CNTYS. OUR SVR WX THREAT IS PRETTY
MUCH NIL AT THIS PT...WITH THE AMS WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. WW 227 WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM...OR BE CANCELLED SOONER.

OVERNIGHT...BANDS OF SHWRS/TSTMS...CURRENTLY ACRS SRN ONT...LK
ERIE...AND NRN OH...WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE W AFTER
9-11 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCD WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRNT AND
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING...AND A SLGT LWRG OF SFC DEW PTS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN. THIS EVOLUTION IS SHOWN BY ALL SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS LTR
TNT INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED SFC FRNT AND UPR TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD CROSS CNY/NE PA BY MIDDAY THU...WITH FURTHER DRYING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT...ANY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THU MRNG...SHOULD BE REPLACED BY RAIN-FREE WX AND AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES DURG THE AFTN.

RIDGING BOTH SFC AND ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE CWA THU
NGT-FRI...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY SAT. DRY WX IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI...AND LIKELY INTO THE DAY SAT.
A QUICK SWLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BRING WARMER CONDS BACK IN FRI
AFTN (HIGHS IN THE 80S).

STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SPECIFIC REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL TO BRING IN SHWRS/PSBL TSTMS ON
SAT...WHILE THE NAM/RGNL GEM/EC MODELS ARE SLOWER...AND DON`T DVLP
ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION TIL LTR IN THE DAY SAT OR SAT EVE.

GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
PRIOR FCSTS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DURG THE DAY SAT...SPCLY BY AFTN.

MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS FRNTL BNDRY WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUTLINED BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT,
USHERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NY AND PA. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS UNSTABLE, WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SERN COUNTIES, AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A TEMPORARY TROF PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND THE PATTERN UNSETTLED, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NON-RESTRICTIVE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EAST OF
I-81 OVER NYS AND NEAR I-81 OVER PA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY NEAR AVP AND RME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH BASES AROUND 4000-6000
FEET. LIGHT FOG (3SM TO 5SM) IS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND ELM TOWARD
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP


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