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000
FXUS61 KBGM 120335
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1035 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ONTARIO
AND ERIE...OCCASIONALLY BRINGING SNOW SQUALLS TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND BEGINNING TO MAKES ITS MOVE TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. STILL HAVE SNOW FALLING IN NW
ONEIDA COUNTY SO OPTED TO KEEP WARNING GOING. NEXT UPDATE PROBABLY
WILL BE ABLE TO DROP IT AS SNOWS SHUD BE TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY
STRG SFC HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRT WAVE
THAT WAS MOVING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SERN CANADA AT THIS
TIME. THE EFFECT OF THIS WAS TO VEER THE LL WINDS TO N OR NERLY UP
TO 925 MB IN NC NY WHICH IN EFFECT SHIFTS THE LES BANDS WELL TO
THE W AND WEAKENS THE ACVTY AS VERY DRY BNDRY LAYER AIR MOVES IN.
DWPTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUGGESTING VERY DRY AIR WHICH WUD
CUT DOWN LES POTENTIAL FOR OVRNGT. THE HRRR...LOCAL WRF...WRF-ARW AND
WRF- NMM AND EVEN THE RAP ALL SUGGEST THIS. HOWEVER...THE VWP FROM
KTYX DOES NOT SHOW THIS LL NERLY FLOW AS IT REMAINS NWRLY. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THESE MESOSCALE MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS SFC HIGH
WHICH WAS BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. THE NEW 00Z NAM KEEPS A LL NW FLO
DOWN INTO THE LES ADVY AREA ALL NGT AND HENCE...GIVEN THIS NEW MODEL
DATA...RADAR TRENDS AND THE KTYX VWP I THINK OUR LES ADVY FOR NC
NY STILL LOOKS GOOD. TWEAKED AMNTS A TAD BUT GENERALLY 4 TO 7
INCHES WILL FALL IN MUCH OF THIS AREA OVERNIGHT AND THU AM. THE
FLO ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA GOES W-SWRLY THU DURING THE DAY AND THE
LES WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT BACK N THU.

THE LAKE ERIE BAND HAS NOW WORKED OFF OF LAKE ERIE IN THE NW FLO
PATTERN AND WILL ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD AND FALL APART AS IT MOVES
INTO NE PA AS PER MODEL GUIDC. THERE WILL BE SUBSC AS WELL BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHRT WAVE AND THE BAND WILL BECOME MOISTURE STARVED
AS IT WORKS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HENCE NAM AND OTHER MESO MODELS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH THIS BAND FALLING APART IN NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
315 PM UPDATE...
REINVIGORATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL REDEVELOP EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPECIFICS OF EXACTLY WHERE
THAT BAND SETS UP REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT IT WILL INVOLVE NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. DENDRITIC GROWTH
BEGINS TO SLOWLY RISE IN HEIGHT YET ALSO THICKEN WHILE STILL
HAVING OMEGA EXTEND THROUGH IT EVEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
ALONG WITH EXPECTED VERY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS COMPELLED ME
TO HOIST ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY. EXTREME NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...AND INDEED IF THE BAND ENDS UP
SITTING THERE INSTEAD OF JUST NORTH...ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE MUCH
MORE. AS WITH ALL LAKE EFFECT...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOCALIZED WITH ONE SPOT GETTING MANY INCHES AND OTHERS JUST A FEW
MILES AWAY SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. MEANWHILE...LAKE ERIE BAND WILL
AGAIN EXTEND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
LIGHT FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND SHEARING LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD DIMINISH LES INTENSITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE WAVE ITSELF COULD YIELD SOME LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW
OUTSIDE OF LES AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIP ACROSS THE LWR WYOMING VLY AND POCONOS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISS RVR VLY. AS BOTH UPPER WAVES
DIG...MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH
WILL BEGIN ADVANCING NORTH ONCE AGAIN AS A CONSOLIDATING 850-MB
LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISS VLY INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO PROVINCE BY 00Z SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...EXPECT
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS AS 850-MB FLOW INCREASES TO
NEAR 30 KTS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ALONG THE 285 AND 290K
THETA SURFACES. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AS FIRST THE
850-MB LOW CENTER TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FCST AREA...AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SFC REFLECTION MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINA
COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE PRIMARY SFC FEATURE
THUS ENSURING LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION AS OF RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE LWR WYOMING VLY AND POCONOS SATURDAY NGT WHERE SOME WARM AIR
MAY TEMPORARILY ADVANCE INTO NORTHEAST PA AS ENERGY FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW TRANSFERS TO THE MAIN LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SNOWS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS IN FROM THE MAIN LOW OFF THE COAST
AND ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMING MORE APPARENT AS PVA
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS ON THE HWO PRODUCT UNTIL FCST
DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN PENDING ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

BEYOND THIS...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN REDEVELOPING LAKE
SNOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SNOWS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS
ELONGATED WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD LOOK TO HOVER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS FCST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS ACROSS ALL CENTRAL NEW YORK TERMINALS. ARCTIC COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH LATEST RADAR DATA
FROM TYX SHOWING A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF MAIN LAKE ONTARIO
BAND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OFF OF LAKE ERIE NOW IMPACTING THE
CENTRAL FINGER LAKES TO INCLUDE ITH. THIS BAND TOO SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH WITH TIME THIS EVENING. INDIVIDUAL FCST POINT SPECIFICS
BELOW:

RME: EXPECT DEVELOPING IFR VSBYS IN SNOW BY 1Z AS BAND SHIFTS
SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINAL. RESTRICTIONS BELOW ALTERNATE MINS
SHOULD LAST THROUGH 5Z BEFORE BAND SHIFTS SOUTH OF TERMINAL. VFR
EXPECTED BY 07Z.

SYR: LAKE SNOWS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE TERMINAL TOWARDS
2Z WITH A CONTINUATION OF IFR RESTRICTIONS (BELOW ALTERNATE MINS)
EXPECTED THROUGH 8-10Z. FOLLOWING THIS...WIND FIELDS WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY WHICH SHOULD RETRACT MAIN SNOW ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT IMPROVEMENTS TO
HIGH-END MVFR AND POSSIBLE VFR TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.

ITH: LAKE ERIE BAND DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL TO START OUT WITH
IFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 3Z TIME FRAME. FOLLOWING
THIS...LAKE ERIE BAND SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. LAKE ERIE BAND TO RE-INTENSIFY
AFTER 20Z WHICH MAY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HRS.

ELM: LAKE ERIE BAND TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE TERMINAL BY 2 OR 3Z...WITH
MVFR VSBYS (OCCASIONAL IFR) POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
VFR EXPECTED BY 5Z AS BAND DISSIPATES.

BGM: LAKE ERIE BAND TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE TERMINAL BY
2Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR (BELOW ALTERNATE MINS) EXPECTED THROUGH
5Z OR SO. BEYOND THIS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH LGT SN AS FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

AVP: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS MAIN LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH. SOME LAKE SNOWS MAY BRIEFLY MOVE
OVER THE TERMINAL TOWARDS 6Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN CURRENT FCST.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AT KRME.

SAT/SUN...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY REGION-WIDE IN SNOW AS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

SUN NGT/MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ017-
     018-036-037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG