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000
FXUS61 KBGM 190621
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING SPRINKLES ACRS OTSEGO CO AS WK SFC FRNT
SLOWLY SLIPS S AND E ACRS C NY AND NE PA. FRNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM ONEONTA NY TO ABT TOWANDA PA. THIS FRNT WAS TIED TO AN UPR
LVL WAVE THAT WAS MOVG ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND HENCE DEEPEST LIFT
WAS FARTHER EAST WHERE THERE WAS MORE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BY
12Z...FRNT WILL BE S INTO SRN PA WHERE IT WASHES OUT. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF BKN POST FRONTAL CLDS THAT WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PA BY 9Z AND THEN DISSIPATE. SO HAVE VARYING
AMNTS OF CLD CVR FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
REACHING C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS
MOISTURE. THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN
GO AS FAR AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME
SPRINKLES. FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER
SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT
UPDATE. ITS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...