Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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791
FXUS61 KBGM 250744
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the area today with scattered
showers, followed by colder air and lake effect snow showers
into Sunday. Milder air will return for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Cold front will drop into western NY this morning and race east
today. Mesoscale models continue to show drier solutions as the
system is moisture starved. Best chance for showers with the
frontal passage will be over the northern forecast area
between about 14Z and 16Z. Behind the system, gradually colder
air works in with a northwest flow. This will eventually fire
lake effect rain and snow showers, gradually becoming all snow
overnight. Second wave and trof drops through early Sunday
which will briefly enhance the lake effect, and may drop an
inch or so over the hills just southeast of Syracuse. Mainly
flurries elsewhere. The day will start off mild, with temps
falling in the afternoon to end up near normal Sunday morning.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Sunday morning the upper level trough axis swings across NY
and PA as strong low-level cold air advection continues on a
310 to 325 degree flow. 850mb temperatures will be around -8 to
-10C by 12z Sunday which leads to a 20C or so Lake Ontario
 temperature to 850 mb temperature differential. This by itself
 is decent instability for lake effect snow. Therefore, snow
 showers are likely across the eastern Finger Lakes and upper
 Susquehanna region in Central NY early Sunday morning. Chance
 PoPs for snow showers will extend down along the NY/PA border
 in Broome/Delaware counties and even into the far northern
 Poconos. The favored locations in Central NY could see up to 1
 inch of snow Sunday morning...with just a light dusting
 possible elsewhere. High temperatures on Sunday will only
 recover into the 30s for most locations. There will also be
 breezy northwest winds between 15-25 mph, creating windchills
 in the 20s and lower 30s through the day. By Sunday afternoon
 and evening a shortwave ridge builds over the area...allowing
 the lake snow showers to quickly taper to flurries and end.
 Clouds may even break for some sun late in the afternoon,
 especially over NE PA. Sunday night a fast moving, weak clipper
 system will move by to the north. This will bring additional
 chance for snow showers across mainly the northern portion of
 the forecast area. There will be some likely PoPs for snow
 showers mainly in Oneida county. QPF amounts look rather
 light...generally under a tenth of an inch. This should equate
 to only light snowfall amounts, with perhaps 0.5 to 1.5 inches
 along and north of the NY Thruway. Some lake enhancement will
 develop in these same areas as 850mb temperatures fall to
 around -8C early Monday AM. This trough/clipper system quickly
 moves east and out the area later on Monday. This will allow
 for conditions to dry out Monday afternoon areawide. 500mb
 heights continue to rise and high temperatures should range
 from 35-45 Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure builds across all of NY and PA Monday
night through Tuesday. This will keep the CWA dry with warming
temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to
mid-50s...well above average. A very weak, decaying frontal
boundary skirts by to the north Tuesday night and early
Wednesday morning. This could bring at least some increasing
cloud cover and perhaps a few light rain showers to far northern
Central NY. Behind this front temperatures will only cool very
slightly...and much of the forecast area should remain dry
Wednesday afternoon/evening. A weak upper level disturbance then
moves through later Wednesday night and Thursday in the
southwesterly flow out ahead of a larger approaching trough.
This first weaker system will bring a slight chance of mainly
rain showers to the western portion of the area Wednesday night
and Thursday. The latest model guidance is in fairly good
agreement that a stronger upper level trough and associated
frontal system will then move through the area Thursday into
Friday...bringing higher PoPs/QPF...precip type will be mainly
rain to start. As colder air infiltrates behind the front by
Friday and Friday night the precip will then likely begin to
transition over to snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through tonight with cloud cover
increasing and ceilings lowering to patchy MVFR by the late
morning hours. A cold front will bring in a few light rain
showers Saturday afternoon with MVFR ceilings.

Outlook...

Saturday night into Monday...Lake effect snow showers likely
causing at least some restrictions, mainly KSYR and KRME.

Most of Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Possible restrictions in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJT/DGM



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