Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 230556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA.

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM TO BE WORST IN REGARDS
TO CIG WITH PERSISTENT IFR...LIFTING INTO FUEL ALT REQ MVFR BY
LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-
KITH...AND EVEN AT TIMES IFR KITH LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT
FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT
TIMES LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14
KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY
GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP






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