Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 291304
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
904 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE INTENSE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...STILL SOME SHOWERS AS OF MID MORNING FROM THE
FINGER LAKES EAST TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH BUT EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT VERY BRIEFLY BEFORE A FAST
MOVING BUT POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER THIS
EVENING. THE AMBIENT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LACKING OF ANY DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...BUT THE DYNAMICS WITH THE S/W SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A QUICK QUARTER TO ALMOST HALF INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE TWIN TIERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND THE MOHAWK VALLEY AT OR
NEAR 60 DEG. TONIGHT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOWER
40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING S/W EARLY
ON SATURDAY AND MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE REGION FROM THE SW. THE
PRESENCE OF THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO KEEP
WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR ALL THE CLOUDS OUT. EVEN
STILL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECTING A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM MOIST AIR
WILL WILL LIFT NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND AID IN THE BROAD LARGE
SCALE FORCING NEEDED TO PRODUCE AN INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A SECONDARY ROUND OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO RAIN FROM A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S WILL REMAIN THE STORY THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...

MODEL DIFFERENCES RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. PARTLY DUE TO
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND A TROF BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NE US. UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY. MINOR CHANGES
POPULATING WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. DETAILS BELOW STILL VALID.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG RANGE AS A MEAN TROUGH
WILL TEND TO DOMINATE IN THE EAST. UTILIZED THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE
FORECAST AND ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

IN TERMS OF DETAILS, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA WITH RAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE A BREAK BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS A WEAK TRANSIENT HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA BRINGING A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. BEYOND THIS TIME A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS S CENT NY ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR. LOW LAYERS REMAIN DRY BUT AREAS JUST TO THE
SW OF ELM AND AVP ARE MVFR. CONDITIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 6 HOURS.

ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP WILL FOLLOW AROUND 16Z. SYR/RME WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY AND VFR. SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS COMES IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. ITH/BGM SHOULD FALL TO FUEL ALTERNATE
MVFR AROUND 21Z WITH THE SHOWERS. AVP/ELM MAY ALSO FALL TO FUEL
ALTERNATE BUT AFTER 3Z. VSBYS MAY FALL TO MVFR ALSO DUE TO THE
RAIN SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

SUN TO MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/PCF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...PCF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC



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