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000
FXUS61 KBGM 132110
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST
COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 4 PM...RADAR SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. SNOW ACCUMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. THIS
ACTIVITY IS A COMBINATION OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WHICH WAS
MOVED OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SFC TROF. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS EXCEPT FOR READINGS NEAR ZERO IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS A SECONDARY SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. THIS SFC LOW WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO DELMARVA THEN NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NICE DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE BUT
REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN FEATURE WILL
ALREADY BE DEPARTING THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OF FGEN FORCING ACROSS THE FAR NRN/ERN CWA
BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SNOW GROWTH REGION
NOT COINCIDENT WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OR LIFT IMPLYING A LOWER
SNOW/LIQUID RATIO. SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH MAY BRING A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE FAR SE
FA. EVENT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ADV FOR ENTIRE AREA WITH A GENERAL
3-6 INCHES BUT 4-8 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY DUE TO POTENTIAL FGEN FORCING AND BETTER SNOW/LIQUID
RATIOS. THE ST LOUIS ANALOG PROGRAM ALSO AGREES WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT.

SUNDAY...BY MID MORNING THE STEADY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
ACROSS THE AREA BUT A COOL W/NW FLOW BEHIND SFC LOW WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALL DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL DROP
THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES BRINGING THE AREA MORE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LAKE RESPONSE TO AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT SFC RIDGING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
MAKE THIS A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
115 PM UPDATE...
WITH A SNOW EVENT TOMORROW I WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET
PATTERN WITH NO HUGE STORMS. WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES...ONE COMING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. IN
ADDITION SOME PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT ARE POSSIBLE. TOWARD
THURSDAY HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
BEYOND OUR CURRENT EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO POINT TO OUR
NEXT SYSTEM BEING AN INLAND RUNNER WITH MUCH WARMER AIR AND RAIN
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
115 PM UPDATE...

TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR THE TAFS. THE FIRST WILL BE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH ONGOING LAKE SNOWS...THEN A BREAK...WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

FOR NOW IFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KSYR/KITH AND KBGM
THROUGH 21Z IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS VFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR
A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER. AFTER EARLY TONIGHT MOST TERMINALS WILL GO TO
VFR WITH LAKE INFLUENCES NOT BEING AN ISSUE ANYMORE.

TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ONCE THE SNOW ARRIVES IFR VSBYS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS
TO PERHAPS SOME IFR ESPECIALLY ON THE ELEVATED SITES. ARRIVAL TIME
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 17Z UP
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT/SUN...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY REGION-WIDE IN SNOW AS STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH EACH TERMINAL EXPERIENCING IFR OR
WORSE AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUN NGT/MON/TUE/WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-044-045-055-056-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ009-036-037-046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN