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000
FXUS61 KBGM 140539
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH DAYBREAK INTO THE TEENS. WE WILL MODERATE TO THE
FORTIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER FEW HRS UNDER CLR SKIES AND NORTH
WINDS THEN BEGIN TO RISE AFTER 06Z IN WAA. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
OCCUR ARND 06Z IN AREAS WEST OF I-81 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CONTG TO
DROP ACRS THE CATSKILLS BFR DAYBREAK. HV ALSO INCREASED SKY CVR AS
MID-DECK IS MVG IN QUICKER THAN PROGGED. LK EFFECT SNOW HAS
EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHED ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS DRY AIR HAS MVD IN. THUS
GIVEN AMNT OF DRY AIR HV BACKED OFF ON POPS TO JUST A FLURRY OR
TWO ACRS FAR NRN ZONES BY 12Z.

7 PM UPDATE...
FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AS WE SPEAK AS WIND
IS BACKING. SKIES ARE CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FM
THE WEST. HWVR, DO NOT EXPECT CLR SKIES TO LAST LONG AS MID-DECK
IS APPCHG FM CANADA ON NW FLOW, WHICH MAY END UP BRINGING FLURRIES
TO NRN ZONES SHORTLY AFT DAYBREAK.

FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT TEMPS WL DROP TO ARND 10, POSSIBLY INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACRS DEEPER VLYS IN THE CATSKILLS AS THEY WL BE THE
LAST TO SEE WAA. LGT WINDS WL PRECLUDE WIND CHILL HEADLINES. NO
CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THINGS LOOK TO BE ON TARGET.

3 PM UPDATE...

WEAK LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES OFF OF THE FINGER LAKES AND LAKE
ONTARIO. SHALLOW MOISTURE LIMITING THE LAKE EFFECT TO FLURRIES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM
320 NOW TO 260 AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCHC POPS SHIFT FROM ITH TO SYR
THEN NRN ONEIDA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER HALF AN INCH. WITH THE
DRY AIR AND LACK OF THICK CLOUDS ALREADY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO 5 TO 15 ABOVE. FORTUNATELY THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SO
ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED. A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL BE WAA CLOUDS AND MAYBE A
SHOWER FOR THE FAR NORTH OF THE CWA. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW TRACKING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO OTTAWA THEN DOWN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE SATURDAY. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS COME THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AT LOW LEVELS SO
SHOWERS COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW FRI NGT TO SAT.

SAT NGT TO SUNDAY A COLD NW FLOW WILL SET OFF MORE WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. AGAIN NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT. THE BEST SNOW
WILL BE SAT NGT WITH LESS SHEAR AND MAYBE A WEAK WAVE LATE.

LATE SUNDAY A STORM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SE US. THIS MAY GET
INTO PA WITH SOME PRECIP BUT THINK THE COLD AIR WILL WIN AND KEEP
IT OUT OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
215 PM THU UPDATE...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS COURTESY OF UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE NEW ENGLAND-QUEBEC REGION...THEN
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES OCCURS BY MIDWEEK BUT UNCERTAIN ON HOW
MUCH. THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING CAN OCCUR
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINA
/MID-ATLANTIC COAST REGION MONDAY...AND A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS EVENTUALLY HEADED
FOR OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT BEFORE THAT WE MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AT LEAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGY TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM CAROLINA/MIDATLANTIC SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY
SKIM PARTS OF NEPA AND CATSKILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT IMPACTS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH AND PRETTY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
TIME...THUS I AGREED WITH THE ONLY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AS PER
WPC. SURFACE HIGH...OR AT LEAST RIDGE...WILL PASS OVER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. THINGS A LITTLE TRICKIER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN I
SIDED WITH WPC...WITH CHANCE RANGE POPS AND UNCERTAIN PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WAA ALOFT WILL DVLP JUST SOME MID LVL CLDS TNGT AND EARLY FRI SO
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. XCPTN IS AT RME WHERE SOME
LAKE SC BRINGING MVFR CONDS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HRS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 40S. GRADIENT WILL
SUPORT SLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

EARLY SAT TO SUN...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN MIXED PRECIP SAT...AND
POSSIBLE FLURRIES SUNDAY...DUE TO MULTIPLE SMALL CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

SUN NGT/MON...MINOR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE KAVP AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IMPACTS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
3 PM UPDATE...

SYR PRECIP FOR 3/12 RESET TO MISSING. PROBLEMS WITH GAUGE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT BGM FOR MAR 13. SYR AND AVP LOWS WERE NOT
COLD ENOUGH. ALL 3 SITES SET THEIR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPS FOR TDA.

COLDEST HIGHS FOR MARCH 13TH BEFORE TODAY
AVOCA PA 24 1926
SYRACUSE 18 1926
BINGHAMTON 20 1993

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/MDP
CLIMATE...