890
FXUS61 KBGM 141051
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
651 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly move eastward across the area
leading to additional showers and thunderstorms into this
evening. Storms can be slow moving and produce heavy downpours.
High pressure looks to briefly build into the region Tuesday
before another cold front approaches later this week with
renewed shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another active day is shaping up for parts of the area today as
the slow-moving cold front and shortwave trough we`ve been
tracking remain off to the west early this morning. The front is
currently stretched across southern Ontario and approaching the
western portion of Lakes Erie and Ontario and will gradually
push east throughout the day into a warm, unstable and very
moist environment. The slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
currently stretching from the Poconos into the Catskills will
continue to slow move east and should diminish by mid morning at
the latest. The break from the convection will be short-lived
as additional showers and storms will develop ahead of the
frontal boundary, generally after 16-17Z, and continue into this
evening. The bulk of the activity today is expected to be
across NE PA, the Twin Tiers and into the Catskills. A flood
watch will be issued covering these areas into and through the
evening. Similarly to Sunday, SBCAPE is projected to be between
1500-2500 J/kg with low-level lapse rates around 7 to 8 degrees
C/km. Bulk shear is still low but a tick higher than Sunday
between 15 and 30 knots, so there is the potential for a couple
of storms to be on the stronger side with isolated damaging
winds the main concern and SPC has the area under a Marginal
Risk for severe storms. Any stronger storms would likely pulse
up and down pretty quickly. Flash flooding will remain the
greatest threat into the evening with PWATs of 1.75-2.00" as we
continue to tap into moisture- rich air that has origins from
the Caribbean, Gulf and Atlantic. Forecast sounding also feature
tall, skinny CAPE sounding profiles across NE PA and the
southern Catskills. Thunderstorms are expected to be slow-moving
and produce torrential downpours and can train over the same
locations multiple times leading to the potential for flash
flooding. Urban and low-lying areas will be most susceptible.
Highs today will mostly be in the low to mid 80s.

Showers and storms will gradually come to an end this evening
and the frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag to the
south and east near or just pushing beyond the CWA borders by
early Tuesday. It will still be a muggy night with not much of
an air mass change behind the boundary with lows in the mid and
upper 60s.

Tuesday is expected to be a largely dry day under partly to
mostly sunny skies with ridging developing aloft and and high
pressure building in at the surface. With the weakening frontal
boundary still close by off to our south and east, a spotty
shower or thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out during the
afternoon around the Poconos and southern Catskills.
Temperatures will be trending back up with highs on Tuesday in
the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain over the area Tuesday night keeping
conditions mainly dry under a clear to partly cloudy sky.
Staying warm and sticky Tuesday night with lows in the mid 60s
to the lower 70s. Wednesday is expected to start out dry, but a
shortwave looks to pass by to the north and west and weaken the
upper ridge enough to trigger some isolated to scattered showers
and storms for the afternoon and at least the evening hours
Wednesday night.

With plenty of instability projected Wednesday afternoon, some
storms could produce locally strong winds in addition to heavy
rainfall. High temperatures Wednesday range from the mid 80s to
the low 90s. Factoring in dew points still in the upper 60s and
low 70s, heat indices are expected to be in the mid and upper
90s. As a result, heat headlines look possible across portions
of CNY, especially for valley and urban areas. Lows Wednesday
night range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pieces of energy embedded in a relatively zonal 500mb flow will
keep the chance for scattered showers and storms around on
Thursday, especially during the afternoon. Again there will be
the potential for some locally heavy and gusty storms with
plenty of instability and PWATs around 1.50" on average. The
next cold front looks to cross the area Friday with additional
showers and storms. High pressure and a drier trend seem to move
in for the start of the upcoming weekend before perhaps some
precipitation tries to return later Sunday. Temperatures over
the weekend look to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of low clouds and fog that have developed this morning,
especially around ELM and BGM, will gradually clear through
14Z. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be
around once again today, mainly during the afternoon and
evening that can bring restrictions, especially to visibility as
some storms will be locally heavy. BGM and AVP have the best
chance of seeing this convection, but it can`t be ruled out at
ELM as well and TEMPO groups are in for the most likely
timeframe.

Some gusty winds will be possible with incoming showers and
storms. Otherwise, winds will be rather light for most of the
period. As showers and storms wind down this evening, areas of
low clouds and fog are expected later tonight, especially around
ITH, ELM and BGM.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR. Spotty showers and
thunderstorms with possible restrictions can not be ruled out
Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday and Friday... Restrictions likely with a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     NYZ055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...DK