Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 251158
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THAT SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
A LARGE NOR EASTER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS. A WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
655 AM UPDATE...
WE WERE A FEW HOURS TOO QUICK WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURE GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH MAIN FOCUS
OF ATTENTION ON THE DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER FOR MONDAY- TUESDAY
WHICH IS ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 340 AM...ARCTIC FRONT IS JUST SLIPPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...ARE AT DAILY MAX...AS
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW...WITH A FRONTAL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING SCATTERED AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH...TO THE POINT THAT ONLY A
FEW FLURRIES WILL REACH THE NY-PA BORDER...AND MUCH OF NEPA NOT
EVEN A FLAKE.

WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATOCUMULUS WILL
BE SLOW TO ERODE DESPITE IT BEING ON THE SHALLOW SIDE. AS WIND
VEERS MORE NORTHERLY LATE AFTERNOON AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT IN...SHOULD SEE A QUICKER BREAKUP OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
ENTIRE FOCUS WILL BE A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE PERIOD.

INITIAL SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY, AS
THIS LOW TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO THE COAST. AN INVERTED TROF FROM
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, WILL HELP SPREAD THE SNOW NORTHWARD. A GENERAL
LIGHT SNOW OR 1" TO 3" IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THIS
SNOW IS NOT RELATED TO THE HIGH IMPACT STORM MOVING UP THE COAST,
BUT WILL STILL MAKE FOR SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS MONDAY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRANSFER
ENERGY TO THE COAST AND FORM A NEW STRONGER COASTAL STORM, OFF THE
DELMARVA. AT THE UPPER LEVELS OUR 500 MB TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILTED
AND CUTS OFF OVER THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CRAWL NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL
BE SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
TRACK IS JUST A TAD TOO FAR EAST FOR A WIDESPREAD IMPACT ON OUR
AREA BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY, THIS STORM WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO WRAP PRECIPITATION BACK INTO OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA, ON A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IS WHY OUR
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST PART OF OUR AREA WILL GET IN ON THE
ACTION.

AFTER A CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND WPC, THE
0Z EURO MODEL IS PREFERRED AND WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR PIKE COUNTY, PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND MODEL TRENDS, THESE BY FAR ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE
WARNING CRITERIA MET (7"+). PARTS OF EASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY ARE
ALSO LIKELY TO SEE AMOUNTS EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA, DUE TO THE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CATSKILLS. ELECTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE
WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTY AND CAN CERTAINLY EXPAND AS NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH, WHICH WAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO, WILL
BE THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA. SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT IN
NOVEMBER (MORE FOR PLACEMENT VS. ACTUAL AMOUNTS), OUR MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW MAY ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS HERE. ON THE FLIP SIDE
DOWNSLOPING WILL LIKELY LIMIT AMOUNTS IN GREATER SYRACUSE/UTICA.
CHECK OUR OUR WEBSITE WEATHER.GOV/BGM AND FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL
MEDIA (FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBINGHAMTON AND TWITTER.COM/NWSBINGHAMTON)
FOR OUR FIRST ESTIMATE AT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL...INCLUDING A POTENTIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE RESURGENCE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY INSTEAD OF WAITING UNTIL
SATURDAY. THUS THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY LAST A DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BUT WILL BE
QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHES NY AND
PA. THIS CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE CWA CREATING SNOW SHOWERS WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR SAT.

TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THURS
AND FRI REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... THEN FALL BACK BELOW ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS
VEERING NW AND SOME GUSTS BRIEFLY 16-22 KTS. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS...AND CIGS BEHIND IT WILL
GENERALLY BE HIGHER END MVFR /FUEL ALT AT TIMES KBGM/. DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT CIGS INTO
HIGHER END MVFR...OR EVEN SCT THEM OUT. AS WINDS VEER MORE
NORTHERLY...VFR AREAWIDE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT NE TO E TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE SHIELD OF SNOW TO SPREAD INTO KAVP-KELM-KBGM 09Z-12Z
MON WITH IFR VIS.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER MAINLY CENTRAL-SOUTHERN TERMINALS
WITH -SN AND RESTRICTIONS MONDAY...THEN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO
NOR EASTER FOR ESPECIALLY EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY
FOR WHICH TERMINALS MAY BE IMPACTED.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN AS SYSTEM PASSES SOMETIME THU-THU NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ048.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP





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