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000
FXUS61 KBGM 280547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
810 PM UPDATE...
EDGED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
PLAN, AND WHILE I EXPECT THE BOTTOM WILL DROP OUT ON THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE SOUNDING OVERNIGHT, I BELIEVE A COMBINATION OF THE
HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE PRODUCES A GOOD PROG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

4 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD NY AND PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED
THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
MICHIGAN WERE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO
TO -20 READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING LOWS NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST
IS COLDER AND BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER
FORECAST IS PROBABLY BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST GOING FOR READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST
BELOW ZERO IN WARMER AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS
BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIPRES BLDG INTO THE AREA THIS MRNG WILL CONT THE MAINLY CLR
SKIES...LGT WIND...AND RESULTING VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...


SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...DGM/MDP