Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231123
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
623 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm will track up the east coast through Tuesday.
This system will bring heavy wet snow and sleet to central NY and
parts of northern Pennsylvania. After this storm system passes,
a weaker trough moves through Wednesday with a chance for a light
wintry mix Wednesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued a winter storm warning from 1PM today to 1PM Tuesday for
all of central New York and the northern tier of Pennsylvania.
Issued a winter weather advisory from 1PM today to 1PM Tuesday
for Luzerne, Lackawanna, southern Wayne and Pike counties in
northeast Pennsylvania and Sullivan county in New York.

A vertically stacked system will move through North Carolina today
then move off the coast this evening and track northeast along the
coast to around coastal New Jersey. By Tuesday afternoon the
system will be lifting well out to sea.

Models continue to be in fair agreement with the position and
movement of this winter storm but differnces still exist in the
thermal profiles and resulting precipitation type. The Canadian
continue to be the coldest with the GFS/ECMWF fairly close but the
ECMWF is slightly cooler. The NAM this run came in the warmest
implying less snowfall. For this forecast leaned toward the
cooler/consensus forecast as the NAM appears to be the outlier.
Unfortunately slight errors of around 1C in the low levels will
have huge consequences with precipitation type and resulting
accumulation.

Rain will spread from south to north today with timing slower
than the previous run. Colder air will advect across the area from
east to west as colder air associated with high pressure in Quebec
gets drawn into the system. Precipitation type will likely
transition from rain to sleet then snow. Strong lift will move
through the area overnight with dynamic cooling continuing this
transition to snow/sleet mix. The last area to change to a wintry
mix will be the finger lakes. Bulk of precipitation will occur
overnight with heavy periods of snow and sleet likely. Freezing
rain is a possible but not a high probability. Strong winds later
this afternoon through the overnight period in combination with
heavy/wet snow could lead to power outages.

In generally warning area will see 4 to 9 inches of heavy wet snow
and sleet with the advisory area 3 to 5 inches. The greatest
accumulations are expected in the higher terrain. Used a snow to
liquid ratio of 10/1 in the higher terrain and 8/1 elsewhere.

The wintry mix will end from west to east Tuesday afternoon as the
system lifts well out to sea. In valley areas the precipitation
could mix back with plain rain as the boundary layer warms
especially in the valley areas and northeast Pennsylvania and
Sullivan County. Less snow is expected in the advisory area due to
more sleet and rain. Both the GFS/ECMWF show warmer air moving
back into the region Tuesday morning as the system lifts to
coastal New Jersey.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Though the winter storm will be pulling out of the region, a
somewhat interesting scenario is setting up for early Wednesday
morning, when a weak ridge builds across NY and PA. Both the GFS
and NAM suggest a freezing rain profile for the Southern Tier.
Fortunately, QPF is light.

Another trough rotates through later Wednesday with rain showers
beginning to mix with snow showers after sunset.

Additional snow shower activity is forecast for Wednesday night
and Thursday as a wave skirts NY/PA. Flow off Lake Ontario will
be favorable for lake effect snow showers over Northern Oneida
County. Lake-induced instability looks modest, so snowfall amounts
are not expected to be significant.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For Thursday night and Friday...northwest flow of gradually colder
air will continue the off and on lake effect snow showers and
flurries. 850 mb temperatures fall to around -10c and boundary
layer temperatures will be cold enough for all snow
showers/flurries.

For next weekend, continued cold air advection on west to
northwest winds will drop 850 mb temperatures to -12c to -14c with
continued snow showers and flurries.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Easterly winds will rapidly increase this morning as a powerful
storm approaches from the south. Winds will build to around 15
knots with gusts of 30 to 35 knots.

Once the rain becomes steady Monday afternoon, ceilings and
visibilites will fall, with ceilings settling around 1200 to 2000
feet and visibilities between 3SM and 5SM.

Further degredation of flight conditions is forecast Monday
evening. IFR ceilings and visibilities will develop in a mix of
rain, snow, and sleet.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Restrictions expected in rain or a wintry mix.

Wednesday...More restrictions possible in rain or snow showers.

Thursday & Friday...restrictions possible in snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for PAZ044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP



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