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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201441
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1041 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and dry weather pattern will persist all the way through
the weekend and perhaps beyond. Tropical storm Jose will remain
well offshore, having very little impact on our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 am update...
Just a few minor changes. Thick clouds on the back edge of Jose
continue in the far east of the cwa. Fog is finally burning off
about the same time as the last few days. Mostly sunny today
otherwise. Max temps around 80 look good.

previous discussion...
Jose will meander aimlessly over the next few days and his
weather will remain east of the area. Along the periphery of the
storm, sinking motion will continue to hold high pressure in
place, both at the surface and aloft. For our area, this means
continued warm and dry days, and cool and foggy nights. For
today specifically, showers from the very outermost bands of
Jose will stay well east and not impact our weather. Some
morning fog and stratus will mix out by mid morning under the
dry air and sunshine. Afternoon highs will continue to be above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM Update...very little change in the forecast or grids as
we continue under the warm and dry ridge. Made some minor
adjustments to temperatures and updated the wind fields to the
latest model runs. Even the eastern zones will see little in the
way of wind through the period.

220 pm update...
High pressure will continue to dominate the region of central NY
and ne PA Thursday into Friday night as Jose meanders off shore.
The presence of an upper level ridge and a relatively deep dry
air mass will keep chances for rain at near zero.

The main concern will be the much above average temperatures and
the potential for valley morning fog. Clear skies at night along
with calm winds will allow thermal profiles to become favorable
for fog...especially in valley locations where the cold air
drains into the lower elevations.

During the day, the air will be allowed to heat quite quickly
with highs topping out in the lower 80s. Would not rule out a
few mid 80 readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 AM update...
The long term models keep a strong ridge in the Eastern United
States through Tuesday. Except for minor grid updates, the
extended forecast remains largely intact from earlier thinking.

Dry conditions and temperatures in the upper 80s are forecast.

220 pm update...
May see a stronger push of warmer air this weekend with 850mb
temps climbing into the +16 to +18 deg C range. Mixing down dry
adiabatically to the surface would result in afternoon high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s...close to 90 in some
locations. Record highs at Syracuse and Wilkes-Barre are in the
lower to mid 90s...and in the upper 80s at the Binghamton
Airport...so not expecting any record breaking temperatures at
this point.

Will likely see the potential for morning valley fog continue as
well this weekend with high pressure in place...strong
raditional cooling at night and calm winds.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 am update...
ELM has returned to VFR. Rest of sites remaining VFR.

previous discussion...
Dense fog at KELM will continue to restrict visibilities and
ceilings through the next few hours. Visibilities will hold
around 1/2SM to 1/4SM through 14z, then increase to around 2SM,
before fog dissipates between 14z and 15z.

Sunny skies and light winds are forecast today. Fog will
redevelop Thursday morning and become dense at KELM between 6z
and 8z.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR except for fog possible each late
night- early morning, especially at KELM but for other
terminals as well at times.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT/DGM
LONG TERM...BJT/DJP
AVIATION...DJP