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000
FXUS61 KBGM 261431
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GIVE THE REGION PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 AM... WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
EASTERN PA AND NJ. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BUT MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. HOWEVER ELM JUST REPORTED A LIGHT SPRINKLE SO HAVE ADDED
20 POPS ACROSS NE PA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THIS
WAVE DEPARTS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS
AS SOME SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
RE-DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND LAKE ONTARIO LAKE PLAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

630 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH PA WITH
ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTION OF STATE. LOCAL
RADAR SHOWS WEAK RETURNS IN SRN LUZERNE COUNTY BUT SFC OBS IN THE
VCNTY ONLY REPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND IR SHOWS CLOUD TOP
WARMING, WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.

AT 430 AM...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH PA
PRODUCING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PA. THIS
FEATURE WAS MOVING DUE EAST WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE WYOMING VALLEY.

SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GIVE THE AREA A PARTLY
SUNNY MAINLY RAIN FREE DAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PRIMARILY
THIS MORNING WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS THROUGH LATE DAY SO WILL
ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF I81 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERNIGHT SHOWING THE
PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH JET SUPPORT AS REGION RESIDES IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN CWA WITH MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY AND NE PA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE WILL LIFT OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY BREAK. WILL LOWER POPS BACK INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY BY 12Z AND KEEP POPS AT CHANCE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG MCS WILL LIKELY DROP
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SFC LOW PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO THE
AREA. MODELS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG BUT ALSO SHOW
A WEAK CAP AROUND 700 MB. INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SPC KEEPS AREA IN
SLIGHT RISK DUE TO AVAILABLE CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE
MENTION IN HWO. HIGH PWAT AIR ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD. SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE
VCNTY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY THEN CUT BACK TO CHC MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
LIFTS INTO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC FOR THUNDER
ON MONDAY WITH COOL POOL ALOFT AND SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HV FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE AS MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON OVERALL PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROF
IN THE EAST THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. DISCREPANCIES EXIST
WITH REGARD TO SFC PATTERN AS 00Z EC HAS WELL-DVLPD SFC LOW ALONG
THE NY BIGHT 12Z TUE WHILE 12Z GFS AND CMC HAVE A SFC TROF ALONG
THE EAST COAST AT THIS SAME TIME. MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HV SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SFC LOW AT THE SAME TIME.

ONLY IMPACT THIS HAS WUD BE HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS FOR TUE AS
ANY SFC LOW IN THE AREA WL ADD TO THE CONVERGENCE AND COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HTG THIS WUD LKLY BOOST POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS HV KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
FOR TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS, WHICH IS BASICALLY WHAT WPC HAS.

EACH AFTN WL HV THE CHC FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO DIURNAL HTG AS
UL TROF LINGERS ACRS ERN HALF OF THE NATION. TEMPS WL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODERATE AFT FROPA OCCURS ON TUE MRNG WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S AND LOWS IN THE L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THRU THE FORECAST PD. OUR TAF
SITES WILL TRANSITION FROM SCT-BKN CIRRUS EARLY TO A MID
DECK LATE THIS MORNING...THEN WE WILL SEE SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN ALL VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION IS A LITTLE PESKY
IFR BR/FG AND KELM WHERE I HAVE A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR IFR TIL 13Z.
LATER TONIGHT...MORE MID CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A FEW VFR SHRA MOVE
IN MAINLY AFTER 5-6Z MOST TAF SITES. CIGS WILL DROP AFTER 6Z
TOARND 5000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT S TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE/WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN AFTERNOON SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJN