Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 300625
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
225 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than early morning valley fog, quiet weather is expected
today through tonight with high pressure in place across the
Northeast. A cold front will slide through the region Wednesday
into Wednesday Night with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
However, late this week through the weekend, dry weather will
return as cooler Canadian high pressure dominates our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 AM update...
High pressure is in charge, keeping the weather dry and quiet
through tonight.

Not only has high pressure settled right on top of the region, but
also the air mass is stunningly dry, especially between 5 and 20
thousand feet where dewpoint depressions of 40 or more degrees
Celsius are indicated in model soundings. This of course is
yielding ideal radiational cooling, and thus valley fog can be
expected to form during the remainder of the overnight hours. We
have already seen Sidney NY briefly experience a one-hundred foot
ceiling within the past hour, and that is usually a good canary
in the coal mine in regards to valley fog when it occurs at that
site this early. Cortland and Norwich meanwhile are already 100
percent relative humidity, and Ithaca at 2 AM is already
experiencing visibility down to about a mile.

Once the valley fog burns off around midmorning, a quiet and
mostly sunny day can be expected. Highs will be upper 70s to mid
80s, or roughly 3-6 degrees above climatology, which along with
dewpoints in the 50s will make for a rather pleasant afternoon.

For tonight, high pressure will ooze southeast, ahead of an
approaching front well to our northwest. Meanwhile, aloft the
westerlies will sag further south to expose our area to shortwaves
skimming through the flow. The lower levels will be much too dry
to support showers overnight, though high clouds will increase and
thicken with time with the passing shortwaves. Towards dawn,
there will even be a slight chance of showers mainly along and
north of the NY Thruway. With the increasing clouds, temperatures
will not be quite a chilly with lows mainly in the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM Update...

A cold front will drop from Ontario across NY on Wednesday. 0-6km
bulk shear will jump to 35-40 knots along the NY/PA border by late
in the day, suggesting organization and perhaps some gusty winds
with convection. The issue precluding severe potential appears to
be instability, with very modest mid-level lapse rates forecast.

Once the front passes, much cooler air will filter into the
northeastern United States for the end of the week, typified by
925mb temps between 14C and 17C late Thursday. Dry and cooler will
be the rule, as temperatures will struggle to break out of the
lower 70s on Thursday and Friday. A few readings in the upper 40s
are expected Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 pm Monday update...

Fairly high confidence continues this period, as medium range
guidance remains reasonably consistent, and in good agreement
overall. Little change to previous.

Thursday night still a northwest to north low level flow of cold
air keeping some clouds mainly in central NY under an upper level
trough. This trough shifts east and the winds weaken as a large
area of high pressure moves in from the western Great Lakes. The
high remains in control late Friday through Sunday as upper level
heights build. Temperatures warm from near normal Friday to be
back above normal Sunday and Monday. Monday highs well into the
80s. This upper level ridge and surface high will keep the area
dry and tropical moisture to the southeast along and off the east
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear sky and calm wind is yielding just about ideal set-up for
valley fog early this morning. Of course KELM will be most prone,
with fluctuating conditions eventually settling to airport
minimums to around 13Z or so. However, restrictions will likely
find themselves reaching most if not all other terminals toward
sunrise as the fog lifts from the valley floor, especially KITH
which right around 06Z already hit IFR briefly. TAFs indicate MVFR
VIS becoming realized, but worse conditions are not out of the
question including KRME which has an Alt Min TEMPO group 10Z-12Z.
Monitor for amendments. Once the fog lifts conditions will be VFR
with light variable to southwest winds through the day. Still VFR
this evening with just some increasing high thin clouds.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday-Wednesday Night...Brief restrictions from
showers/storms are possible, but mainly VFR.

Thursday-Saturday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP



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