Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 301049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT FRIDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/TEMP/TD GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

0345 AM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS JUST
ENTERING NY STATE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG IT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON (ROUGHLY 12-18Z)...CLEARING
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES
IN FORECAST THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL SEE ML CAPES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK FORMS HEADING INTO THIS
MORNING. ALSO, 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL AT AROUND 25
KNOTS WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5 TO 5.5 C/KM. THUS,
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS NOT GREAT BUT WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
ISSUES IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT SHOULD
MINIMIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT THOUGH CAN`T RULE
OUT THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
HYDRO ISSUES AS WELL AS ANY ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS
STILL LOOKS TO BE EAST OF I-81 DUE TO LATER TIMING OF FRONT TOWARD
PEAK HEATING.

BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT DEVELOPING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER, MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MOVING IN. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE... FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO OUR FAR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD ACT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ON SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT-
WAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PROGGED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT ON
SATURDAY (0-6 KM VALUES OF 30-40 KT)...ONLY MODEST ML CAPE (MAINLY
500-1000 J/KG) AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR EARLY AUGUST (1-1.5")...SO
HEAVY RAINFALL DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN EITHER. HIGHS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER (70S-LOWER
80S).

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD TEMPORARILY DRY OUT IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. ANY CLEARING WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG...ALTHOUGH THOSE FINER DETAILS ARE NOT CLEARLY INTO FOCUS JUST
YET. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. UNSETTLED
BUT ONLY LOW CHC TO SCHC POPS. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING OF
WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A DECENT COLD FRONT
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS FOR KELM/KBGM/KAVP.
LOCALLY, SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AND
THIS COULD EVEN BRING VISBYS BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR. THE NORTHERN 3
SITES, KITH/KSYR/KRME, LOOK TO MOST LIKELY REMAIN VFR UNLESS
AFFECTED BY A HEAVY SHOWER WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
THE FRONT CLEARS ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT TO W/NW BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.


.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...PCF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.