Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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567
FXUS61 KBGM 231505
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1105 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A sunny day with moderating temperatures can be expected to
round out the weekend, courtesy of high pressure. Dry again
Monday, then our next chance of showers will occur Monday night
through Tuesday night from a weak disturbance moving up the
East Coast. This will be followed by another dry day Wednesday,
with highs reaching into the 70s for most locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 am update... A nice Spring day is in progress, with various
GOES-16 channels showing clear, sunny skies across CNY/NEPA late
this morning, with the valley fog having dissipated since about
9-930 am.

We don`t see much change this afternoon. Some high, thin clouds
on the outer periphery of a disturbance over the southeastern
states may brush parts of NEPA, but that`s about it.

The strengthening late April sun will help push readings into
the 60s area-wide this afternoon, a good 15-20 degrees higher
than what we saw yesterday, along with less wind. Enjoy!

Previous discussion... 215 AM Update... High pressure has taken
over and will remain in charge to keep the weather dry through
Monday.

Mostly clear sky and decoupled wind has produced a chilly early
morning due to good radiational cooling overnight. As of 2 AM,
temperatures generally ranged from 30 in Elmira to 40 in Avoca.

However, dry high pressure and a day of full late April sunshine
will allow a quick bounce in temperatures for a very fine day
with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lower elevations from the
Twin Tiers southward may get close to 70 degrees. As is typical
with very dry air above a subsidence inversion this time of
year, dewpoints will likely get lower than model guidance
suggests, resulting in relative humidity values reaching into
20s-lower 30s percent range by mid-to-late afternoon.

Mostly clear sky can be expected again tonight, though
temperatures will not be quite a chilly, with lows mainly upper 30s
to lower 40s.

Grip of high pressure will loosen Monday, yet we will be still
rain free for vast majority of the area and day. Distant low
pressure approaching from the south will begin initiating an
east-southeast flow, increasing clouds for Northeast PA to
Western Catskills of NY. Typically in these types of patterns,
our Lake Ontario plain counties of CNY see the warmest
temperatures due to downsloping and fewer clouds, while the
Pocono plateau and the Catskills are cooler. This should be the
case again Monday, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper
50s- lower 60s over the higher terrain of the Poconos and
Catskills, to the mid- upper 60s from the central southern tier
and Finger Lakes areas, up towards Syracuse, the Mohawk Valley,
and the southern Tug Hill region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM...Forecast models are in overall good agreement in
tracking a low pressure system from the Georgia coast north and
east to near Cape Hatteras from Late Monday through Tuesday.
This will bring increasing clouds to the region Monday night
with the rain developing across the area from south to north
near day break Tuesday. The Rain looks to continue through
Tuesday morning before possibly abating in the afternoon as the
initial slug of moisture moves east into New England. Skies
remain overcast through the day however with highs ranging from
the low 50s east, where rain will be the steadiest, to the upper
50s over the Lake Plain.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, the low will continue to move
north and east to near Long Island while weakening. This will
keep skies mostly cloudy with the chance of scattered showers
going through at least the first part of Wednesday though during
this period the heaviest/steadiest rain will be east of the
area. Some late day clearing may try to work into western parts
of the forecast area through the lake plain by late Wednesday
however the trend is for the day to remain cloudier and a little
cooler than previously forecast. Highs look to be generally in
the 65 to 70 degree range...coolest east and warmest west. Total
rain amounts with the aforementioned system are not expected to
be too heavy...still potentially a quarter to half inch over
southern and eastern areas through the Poconos and Catskills
with a tenth to quarter inch farther north and west through the
Lake Plain and Finger Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM...To begin the period, low pressure exists the northeast
Wednesday evening with a deep southerly flow setting up ahead of
the next system heading into Thursday. Lows Wednesday night
night will be in the 50s with the strong warm air advection
bringing highs well into the 70s for Thursday. At this point,
most of Thursday is now looking dry under a mix of sun and
clouds with the chance of showers and thunderstorms not arriving
until late day as a cold front approaches from the west. This
front moves in Thursday night bringing some showers and storms.

For Friday and beyond, forecast confidence is fairly low as our
forecast models diverge and there has been considerable run to
run variability in the models as well. The overall set up will
feature a building upper ridge over the SE US which will act to
pump warm air north with the forecast area located in the
baroclinic zone between this warm ridge to the south and cooler
high pressure to the north. In addition, there will be an upper
trough with an associated surface low moving into the central US
heading into next weekend. In general, this set up will feature
temperatures above average but with the chance of showers each
day due to the front wavering in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR as high pressure takes over with mainly clear sky for the
duration, with one exception early this morning. Wet ground
from recent rain, near calm wind with radiational cooling, and
greening up just getting started for the KELM area will lead to
patchy valley fog. Figuring on a short window of fluctuation
into IFR VIS 10Z-12Z for KELM, though there is still some
uncertainty as this is not yet a good time of year for valley
fog and the air mass that is moving in is very dry. Winds will
be light-variable, then generally WSW-W around 5 knots late
morning through afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible, as
showers move back into the region.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR other than a brief
restriction/shower still possible early morning for KBGM-KAVP.

Thursday...Restrictions again possible, with at least scattered
showers anticipated and a chance of thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



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