Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 031931
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD CLEAR ON THE PRECIPITATION IN TIME FOR
MOST FIREWORKS SHOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS FAIR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT IS A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM MVG FROM
THE OH VLY TO THE DELMARVA. OVRNGT RUNS PUSHED THE PCPN NWRD AND
INCREASED THE INTENSITY...WHILE THE 12Z MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
BACKED OFF...XCPT THE GFS WHICH MAY BE SUFFERING SOME CONV
FEEDBACK GNERATING HEAVIER PCPN AHD OF A WV STREAKING NEWRD.
ALSO...TIMING HAS SLOWED AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST CHANCE
FOR ANY LGT PCPN WILL BE AFT MIDN IN THE XTRM SOUTH AD WEST.

FOR THIS GRID UPDATE HAVE LWRD POPS TO CHANCE ALL AREAS...KEEPING
HIGH CHANCE TO THE SOUTH NEARER THE UPR SUPPORT. HAVE INCLUDED
ISLTD TRWS OVER THE FINGER LAKES IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAT SHOWS A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY OVER WRN NY MVG EWRD INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING.

TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML SAT AFTN WITH THE CLDS AND SCT SHWRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN RUNNING VERY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS...THIS AFTERNOON THEY HAVE JUMPED BACK TO A DRIER
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH
THE 12Z RUNS NOW ALL SHOWING THE PRECIP CHCS DWINDLE FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...MEANING MUCH BETTER
FIREWORKS VIEWING IS LIKELY FOR THE EVENING OF THE FOURTH. TROUGH
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE RIDGING IN CONTROL...TEMPS WILL REBOUND
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR UNDER CLR SKIES THIS AFTN WILL CONT INTO THE EVE. WV MVG EWRD
AFT 00Z WILL BEGIN TO DVLP CLDS AND SOME LGT PCPN AFT 06Z WITH
MVFR CIGS AT WORST...ESP TWRD DAYBRK. SHWRS WILL CONT THRU THE END
OF THE TAF PD WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE RAIN.

WEAK SFC PRESSURE FIELD WILL CONT BE IN PLACE KEEPING WINDS
LGT...BUT GNRLY SLY...AT LEASS THAN 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT AFTN...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

TUE LATE INTO WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN
SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DGM


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