Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 161030
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM






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