Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271005
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 AM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING.  MORE
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER LOW NEAR ELY NEVADA IS SENDING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WHICH
HAS AIDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES MID TO LATE MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
TODAY...AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE UPPER LOW...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS...AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND FLOW
ALOFT TO HELP SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIE QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNSET AS DRY MORE STABLE AIR SETS
IN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A MUCH DRIER
ATMOSPHERE...BRINGING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED/MVFR
AND LOCAL/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. STORM COVERAGE
DECREASING AFTER 23Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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