Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 092155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
255 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMINISCENT OF RECENT PAST WINTERS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
WESTERN US WITH A DEEP...COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN
FACT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WILL EXCEED THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR FEBRUARY THIS WEEK...EXCEEDING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE AT TIMES OVER ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A SUBTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE WESTERN US RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS INDICATE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME FRAME. TOO EARLY TO
TALK DETAILS AS FAR AS TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNTS THOUGH
THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ORIGINATING FROM A SUBTROPICAL SOURCE AND
WE COULD EVEN SEE RAIN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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