Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 010403 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS COMING WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORM
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATES TO TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES...
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY 2-4 DEGREES AT SOME SITES TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT. LAST NIGHT`S WINDY
CONDITIONS HELP SKEW THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES UPWARD...AND TONIGHT
THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...ALLOWING FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FAIR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO KEEPING THE DOOR CLOSED ON
TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING UP
ADDITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF
MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED. BY
THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS INCREASING ALLOWING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......TC/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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