Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 301647
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
947 AM MST SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend and increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms heading into the weekend as monsoonal
moisture returns to the area. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing localized heavy rains, hail and gusty winds throughout
the next week as the monsoon looks to remain over the area into
next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Monsoonal moisture has increased across the area today
which will keep an active thunderstorm pattern in place. Overnight
debris clouds from convection over west/southwest AZ is thinning
quickly which should allow for ample daytime heating to initiate
convection. Hi-resolution models favor areas from Flagstaff
westward for thunderstorm coverage early on...spreading into the
lower elevations late this afternoon and evening. The current
forecast covers this trend well. There is enough instability to
allow a few strong or severe storms to develop which could produce
strong wind and hail. Heavy rain is also a possibility which could
lead to flash flooding. The most favored area for stronger storms
and heavy rain is across Coconino, Yavapai, Gila and southern
Navajo and Apache counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /318 AM MST/...Monsoonal moisture will continue
to flow into the area through the period allowing for cooler
daytime temperatures and widespread increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon hours. Some upper
atmospheric disturbances will allow for convection to continue
into the overnight hours saturday night and sunday morning.

The main concern throughout this time frame will be the chances
for flash flooding due to heavy rain from thunderstorms.
Precipitable water values begin to climb above 1.25 inch by early
next week and could complicate flash flood potential by creating
widespread cloud cover that limits daytime convective heating
potential.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...Expect showers and thunderstorms
to initially develop over the mountain regions today, then move into
the lower valleys by mid afternoon. Storm activity will linger into
the overnight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/Suk
AVIATION...KD


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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