Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 071030
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHLAND BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. SATELLITE PW ESTIMATES AND SFC DEW
POINTS ARE LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MORE
THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SOLAR
HEATING PROVIDES THE LIFT NEEDED TO GET THIS GOING.

STILL EXPECTING A STRONG DRYING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST TURNS OUR FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
MONSOON MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS APACHE COUNTY THOUGH.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL BE DRY
AND STABLE ENOUGH FOR NO STORM ACTIVITY WEST OF A LINE FROM KAYENTA
TO PAYSON.  BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVPAI COUNTIES...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL, WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW DAILY
AVERAGES.

MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE PUSHING WESTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND, PUSHING MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES
GO UP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCT TSRA/SHRA ARE XPCTED AGAIN
FROM 18Z-04Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION & FIRE WEATHER...TEC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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