Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220306
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
810 PM MST SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
WILL END THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
ARIZONA. FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SAVE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM MAY DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE STATE ON FRIDAY
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING EAST OF A
LINE FROM SHOW LOW TO KAYENTA THIS EVENING...BUT INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE IS DECREASING. THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR.

FAIR LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS ON TAP FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM MAY POP IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THOUGH. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PROGS SHOW MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO OUR AREA THURSDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY CROSSING AZ NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 320 PM...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE STATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AZ WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP INTO OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIR
MASS OVERHEAD WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR
NIGHTS EXPECTED...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCES CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN
EASTERN AZ.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO BY 10Z. ELSEWHERE AND
OTHERWISE VFR AND SKC.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL KD
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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