Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 130953
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
253 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEM HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY
AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS... PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN. WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

THE WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING TAKING THE MOISTURE
WITH IT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT STAYS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR DRY
WEATHER IN MOST AREAS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE NEXT WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIP (RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE MORNING BUT WARM WELL ABOVE
IT IN MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY. FORRESTER



.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RESPONSIBLE
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EASY TO PICK OUT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...BUT
MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A PASSING CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH NE MONTANA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS SUGGEST SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM DODSON TO FORT PECK
AND POINTS NORTH.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SW WHICH SETS THE AREA UP FOR A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO NE MONTANA BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...ENOUGH MODEL DISAGREEMENTS SHOW UP TO
KEEP FORECAST CONFIDENCE WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK DECENT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIT AND MISS AVERAGE.
BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INLAND
AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH NE MONTANA LATER
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW
A WARM FRONT AND WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY LITTLE PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT KGGW EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY BECOMING IFR BY
MID-DAY AND THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE RAIN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

WIND: FROM THE EAST AROUND 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING...THEN FROM THE WEST UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT.

MICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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