Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 280910
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
310 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...UPPER FLOW ABOVE NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY AND DRY. SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
CONDITIONS LOCALLY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LIGHT THEY WILL
MOSTLY BE EASTERLY.

NO FRONTS ARE EVIDENT AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER STABLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE CWA COULD
INITIATE A FEW STORMS THAT MIGHT DRIFT INTO NEMONT. BUT THE SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA OUTSIDE THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
ZONES FOR NOW. SCT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. IN THE WEST AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROF IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DEFLECT
MOISTURE KEEPING CWA DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HEAT AT BAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND FLATTENS
SLIGHTLY ...WHICH SHOULD BRING MOISTURE AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS STILL NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY DRY.
DID ADD A FEW STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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