Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
FXUS65 KGGW 280902
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
302 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Mon...
The day begins with a cold front lined up north-south across the
western zones. The front is associated with an upper trough
centered over Southern British Columbia. Flow aloft over Northeast
Montana will be southerly to southwesterly which will direct
moisture across the front. This will produce a narrow area of
moderate rain. Convective parameters become moderate by noon which
will initiate general thunderstorms along with the rain showers.
As the front and best lift progress east so does the convection
and rain. By early evening the trough lifts back north into
canada, allowing flow aloft to become westerly and ending the
showers and thunder.
Conditions remain unchanged for Saturday night and Sunday with
this western flow. Therefore expect pleasant weather conditions
with temperatures moving above average. Then conditions begin to
change again Sunday night as another trough drops into the Pacific
Northwest. Once again flow aloft backs to the southwest to bring
in more moisture and instability. Showers that begin after
midnight will become more widespread for Monday. The trough will
dig into Northeast Montana which will begin to increase winds as
the storm attempts to stack up over the area. With a more
energetic wind profile, some storms may become more vigorous with
the possibility of some dry slotting by afternoon. Expect
temperatures to return to near normal.
.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...
Upper low will be over Eastern Montana Monday Night. This low will
combine with an inverted surface trough and deep moisture to bring
showers with embedded thunderstorms to the forecast area. This low
will move into North Dakota on Tuesday and back side wrap around
moisture will remain over Eastern Montana the entire day with
showers and embedded thunderstorms continuing.
Tuesday Night and Wednesday, the low moves to Minnesota and upper
ridge moves into Western Montana. Drier air moves into the
forecast area allowing the showers to diminish.
The upper ridge moves into Eastern Montana on Thursday with warmer
temperatures and dry weather.
A weak shortwave trough Thursday Night and Friday will flatten the
ridge. With limited moisture, will maintain dry forecast. Ridge
rebounds on Saturday with warm and dry weather. Forrester
SYNOPSIS: An upper level trough and frontal system will move
through Eastern Montana today. This will bring a good chance of
showers and thunderstorms with it. Expect MVFR briefly with the
showers as they move through the region. Otherwise VFR shall
continue to dominate the flight category for the terminals. High
pressure will bring mostly clear skies tonight.
Wind: East winds around 10 knots will turn to the west by
afternoon. Winds will be light and variable tonight.