Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 280225 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
825 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT FOR SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER VALLEY AND THE
LOWER YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. SOME FOG SNUCK INTO THE SIDNEY
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND I THINK IT MIGHT DO
IT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS FOR
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
VALLEY FOG IF RADIATIONAL COOLING BECOMES EFFECTIVE ENOUGH TO
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE DEW POINT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OTHERWISE DID TREND HIGHS UP FOR THURSDAY...IN FACT...WILL GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE ENHANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RESULT
WITH WETTING RAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM TERRY TO WIBAUX AS MODEL
CONSENSUS IS STARTING TO FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. TEMPERATURES
WERE ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
THINKING GIVEN DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FROPA AND CURRENT
GRIDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH 27/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATURDAY/S
PRECIPITATION AND ALSO NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN SOME CASES
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS SEEMS TO OCCUR BEST IN THE NE
ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS SEEM WARRANTED. THEN MODELS SEEM TO FALL
APART FOR SUNDAY...SO DID NOT TOUCH THIS DAY NOR DAYS THEREAFTER.
TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY SOME VERSION OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING
TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SEEMS TO BE PROGGED FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS PLACES NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY...FELT IT
WAS WARRANTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MY FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE IMPACT FELT
HERE WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS THE STORM WILL INITIATE HERE...BUT
QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A CHANCE TO ADD SOME QUALITY
TO THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED PAST OUR CWA LATE
SUNDAY...MODELS FALL OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. TRIED TO BLEND WITH CLIMO POPS
HERE. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASK LATE THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS
MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MILK RIVER AND
BEAVER CREEK IN EASTERN PHILLIPS AND WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY. THE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT THE
BOX ELDER AND FLATWILLOW CREEKS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH...SO A
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE.

FOR MORE DETAILS... PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNING
PRODUCTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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