Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 010943
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
343 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL LEND TO REDUCED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY TO
THE NORTHWEST.

CURRENT 500MB HEIGHTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY VERY NICELY DEPICTS
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC SHORES OF
THE U.S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
THIS TROUGH AND PUSHING NORTH INTO MONTANA TO PROVIDE A ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE RECENT RUN OF THE MODELS HAVE
PRODUCED LARGER SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS RESULTING IN LOWERED FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF IN PARTICULAR IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED WITH RECENT
RUNS...AND COMPARED WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM/GFS
HOWEVER...WHILE TRENDING NORTHWEST...ARE STILL FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
PROVIDE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA. A BRIEF LOOK AT THE 06Z NAM
GUIDANCE THOUGH SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.

WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS
PACKAGE BUT STILL WEIGH IN THE NAM/GFS/PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANY
TREND FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT TO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS WEEKEND FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.
RIGHT NOW AS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...EXPECT AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN AS SOON
AS TONIGHT WHEN ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINES WITH
ARRIVING MOISTURE. SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY HOWEVER MAY REMAIN DRY WITH THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AT
BEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL
TRACK OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO WRAP IN BEHIND IT. ANY WET SURFACES MAY
BECOME SLICK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MOST PLACES. OTHERWISE...LEFT ROOM FOR MOST PLACES TO PICK
UP A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE LITTLE
ROCKIES/ZORTMAN AREA...AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT A COATING AT BEST AND LIKELY LESS IF THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TRACK PANS OUT OR SHOULD AN ADDITIONAL SHIFT NORTHWEST IN THE
TRACK OCCUR.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
40S AS ANY REMAINING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT WITH THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEEKEND UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/WESTERN CANADA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDE DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THESE WAVES UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
WITH FLUCTUATIONS ABOVE AND BELOW AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
A LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
REGION THIS TERMINAL CYCLE. EXPECT HIGHS CLOUDS TO SLOWLY LOWER
HOWEVER REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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