Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 261041
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
341 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. CURRENTLY...NORTHEAST
MONTANA COMFORTABLY SITS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. THE EFFECTS OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
STATES AND WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR OUR CWA. MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEW RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. ADDED A NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID
TO THE ZONES FOR TODAY.

THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...AFTER WHICH A
SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL QUICKLY
ERODE AWAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
LITTLE BIT OF MIXED PRECIP FOR OUR NE ZONES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT THIS
TIME. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HUDSON BAY LOW EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE CUT OFF LOW LINGERS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MONTANA. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS PUSHING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT WITH
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON POSITION OF UPPER FLOW.

A WEAK CHINOOK OCCURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES PULLS A COLD FRONT INTO MONTANA ON FRIDAY.
GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MODEL SPREAD INCREASES...WITH THE GFS RETURNING
TO WARMING CONDITIONS WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHICH KEEPS
ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE SNOW MELT OF RECENT DAYS...THE COLD AIR WILL
HAVE A HARDER TIME LINGERING SO TRENDED TOWARD SOMEWHAT WARMER
THEN CONSENSUS FOR THE DAYS...WHILE KEEPING THE NIGHTS COLDER.
EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS... OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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