Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 231614
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1014 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS. GILCHRIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND WESTERN U.S. WITH TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EASTERN
WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AMPLIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S ARE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 25C.
GLASGOW RECORD HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY IS 93 AND FOR THURSDAY IS 91.
WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST AND A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL
SEND WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. THICKNESS HEIGHTS WILL BE GREATER
THAN 580DM OVER NEMONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY. RAW GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY SAYS HIGHS IN THE 90S.
BIASED HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER.

THE LONG-RANGE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE AGREEING AS TO
WHEN THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE 00Z GFS IS STILL QUICKER THAN THE 12Z EC BY
AROUND 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CLOSES OFF THE LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION ON SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE EC DOES NOT. THE BASE
OF THE GFS TROUGH SENDS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO
EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CLOSED LOW THEN
WORKS ITS WAY NORTH TOWARD NEMONT AS ANOTHER LARGER LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS CANADA. THE GFS IS QUITE WET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EC HOLDS THE OPEN TROUGH TO OUR WEST BUT
STILL SENDS MOISTURE OUR WAY FROM ITS BASE...BUT WITH MUCH LESS
QPF. THEREFORE BOTH MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND WETTING
RAINS FOR OUR AREA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THOUGHT THE BEST CHOICE FOR POPS WAS A BLEND INCLUDING HPC
GUIDANCE. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL WINS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES OR
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY.

AREA WINDS: WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A
SLIGHT WESTERN COMPONENT AFTER NOON.

GAH/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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