Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 290207 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
807 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Tue...

The dry cold front has passed through the area. But as the sun
sets the northerly winds are diminishing. Satellite imagery is
showing scattered mid-level clouds continuing to drive in from
the west. The current forecast handles all this well, only a fews
tweaks needed.


Previous Discussion -
Synoptic Setup: A cool trough begins over the Northwest
Territories and runs down through Alberta and Southern
Saskatchewan where it fizzles out into zonal flow across Montana.
Hot high pressure has developed over Nevada and is slowly
spreading north into Idaho in the form of a ridge.

This afternoon through tonight, cold front will continue moving
though the area this afternoon cooling off the region with stable
high pressure overnight.

Monday through Tuesday, conditions should remain quiet and dry
through monday night as the ridge over Idaho shifts into western
Montana and provides an upper level stabilizing effect. Tuesday
the ridge will move over eastern Montana but weak disturbances
moving around the northeast side of the ridge may clip the far
northeast corner for isolated showers and thunderstorms. GAH

.LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun...
Not much change in order for the extended forecast with the
afternoon update. Did make some minor PoP changes in the extended
mainly to show a little bit agreement on long term model package
for the later periods. Otherwise previous discussion hits all the
major points for this afternoon forecast.       Proton

Previous Discussion...The extended period begins Tuesday evening
with an upper ridge in place over the Prairie Provinces and the
Northern High Plains. Off the West Coast of Canada and the Pac-NW
is an upper trough that will slowly move east through the period.

With increased heights initially, temperatures will continue 5f to
10f degrees above normal for Wednesday. The ridge axis will shift
east across the region Tuesday night causing upper flow to back
around to the southwest. Additionally, with the ridge shifting
east, desert air will drift north into the Canadian Prairie
through Montana. The boundary between the warm air-mass and the
cooler air-mass to the north will act as a warm front producing a
chance for showers and thunder through Wednesday night and

Thursday night and Friday, model differences in timing will
determine how the next approaching trough affects Northeast
Montana. The models suggest the trough will become broad and bring
in cooler air for the weekend behind a cold front that could be
timed Friday or Saturday.



Flight category: VFR

Synopsis: Surface high pressure over Albertta will drift east. Expect
skies to remain mostly fair through the period with no precipitation

Wind: North wind tonight will slowly shift to the Northeast on
Monday across the region however speeds will remain below 15
knots through the period. Proton/TFJ




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