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000
FXUS64 KSHV 310307
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ON THE SURFACE ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY GRIDDED
AND WE HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT ALONG WITH THE GUSTS. EVIDENCE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PICKING UP A BIT AS THESE WINDS ARE NOW
MIXING DOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THESE SFC GUSTS. OUR VAD LOOKED
PRETTY CONSISTENT BACK AT 23Z WITH THE NEW SOUNDING DATA AND HAS
SHOWN A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN SPEEDS IN THE LOWER FEW
THOUSAND FEET OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN OVER THE FOUR STATEA ARE WHICH IS SHOWN
WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR...WE WILL AT LEAST SEE THE SMALL SCALE
MCS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST AND PERHAPS EXPAND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ IS FURTHER ENHANCED. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE BY 12Z AND SOME FORTITUDE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND EXPANDED
LIKELY AND DEFINITE AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH HIGHER CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DURING THE AFTERNOON...WPC QPF
PICKS UP A BIT ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES IN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO LOWS IN SE OK
WHERE CURRENTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...ALTHOUGH 10-15KFT CIGS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR
OKC ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE APEX...IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ESE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AS IT APPROACHES THOUGH...SUCH
THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. CIGS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS
WELL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THEY SATURATE
DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF PREVAILING -RA FOR
THE SW AR TERMINALS AROUND/AFTER 06Z...WITH -RA POSSIBLY REACHING
THE I-20 TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 12Z. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR
MAF THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO NEAR/JUST W OF DFW BY
12Z...FURTHER INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR SUCH THAT
MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY
OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP/ADVECT N FARTHER S OVER ECNTRL TX...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE SE OK/SW AR CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW
TO SE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP FARTHER W
OVER E TX/SE OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM HEATING. HAVE
INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN
20-22Z...WITH THIS CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING TXK/SHV NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
E AND THEN NE OUT OF OUR REGION...BEFORE MORE MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
ERN OK/WRN AR...JUST N OF OUR AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT IN COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY BORDERING OURS IN PARTS OF SE OK/SW
AR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WARRANT BRINGING IT FURTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THAT SAID...CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND FURTHER S INTO E TX/N LA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/MS LATE FRIDAY...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR N CENTRAL
LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAX TEMPS RUN WELL BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  81  69  83  69 /  50  50  40  30  20
MLU  65  82  67  83  68 /  20  50  40  40  30
DEQ  66  72  64  80  65 /  80  60  20  20  10
TXK  67  77  64  81  67 /  80  60  30  20  10
ELD  66  77  64  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  10
TYR  72  83  68  84  70 /  60  50  30  20  10
GGG  72  82  68  83  69 /  60  50  40  20  10
LFK  73  90  72  87  71 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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