Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190546 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH SOME PATCHY -DZ OVER MUCH OF E TX/SW AR/CNTRL
LA WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH VARIOUS MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH 12Z ACROSS N LA AS AREAS OF -SHRA OVER
SE TX BEGINS TO SPREAD ENE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CAN/T RULE OUT EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE LFK
TERMINAL...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION ELSEWHERE.
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...BEFORE THE SHRA BEGINS TO
DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO LOW MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING OVER SE OK/WRN AR AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NE TX...BUT
GENERALLY...IFR CIGS AND 4-6+SM VSBYS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BUILDING UP FROM THE COAST...WITH 0Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEED AT KSHV ABOVE 900 MB FOR ANYMORE
THAN DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT MAY SURGE
SLIGHTLY NWD...SO MAINTAINING A STRONG GRADIENT FOR POPS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...CATEGORICAL IN EAST TX LAKES AND TOLEDO BEND...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDER...ALL THE WAY TO NO POPS UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF SW AR. LIGHT NE WINDS BRINGING IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH MOISTURE INFLUX...SO A PRE WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING SET UP. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SOUTH
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




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