Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 270211
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
911 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TEXAS TO NEAR SHREVEPORT AND POINTS EASTWARD ALONG INTERSTATE 20
CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCED QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STRONGEST STORMS MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF EMERSON AND
STRONG.

FOR THIS UPDATE...TRIMMED POPS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA BUT MAINTAINED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO COVER
A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG WITH CIRRUS FROM STORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. /05/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KLFK...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KTYR...KGGG...KSHV...KMLU...AND KELD BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 08Z TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THESE CIGS LIFTING AFTER 16Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
SOUTH INTO THE FOUR STATES REGION WITH SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG IN THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH HAVE HELPED THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH
TEXAS WAS HELPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRY LINE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE FOUR STATE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THE HIGHER POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER FEATURE. IN
AN WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
TEXAS AND THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT
WITH A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. WITH THIS DIRTY RIDGE LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND AND A
SERIES OF FEATURES MOVING INTO THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND A SPLIT FLOW WILL PROVIDE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE
REMAINING IN THE 80/S WHILE LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60/S TO
LOWER 70/S. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  70  86 /  30  40  20  40
MLU  69  87  70  86 /  20  40  20  40
DEQ  66  85  69  84 /  40  40  30  40
TXK  68  86  69  86 /  30  40  30  40
ELD  68  87  69  86 /  30  40  30  40
TYR  71  87  71  86 /  30  40  20  40
GGG  71  87  71  86 /  30  40  20  40
LFK  72  88  72  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05



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