Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241928
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
228 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms along a line from Hugo to Tyler moving
east. Enhanced pressure gradient ahead of the front allowing for
winds speeds around 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Expecting
thunderstorms to continue to increase in coverage and strengthen
across the region through the afternoon and evening as mid-level
lapse rates increase with approaching upper-low. Expecting most of
the convection to be linear with straight line winds being the
main threat. Hail and isolated tornadoes also possible. Latest
model analysis from HRRR suggests that the line should be
approaching TXK/SHV/LFK by around 8 PM and Monroe around 1 AM.
Will likely be issuing a watch by late afternoon and early
evening. Lingering showers behind the front will be possible along
and south of I-20 through daybreak.

A progressive pattern expected through much of the forecast period
with cyclogenesis driven systems bringing showers and
thunderstorms along with a chance of severe weather on Sunday
night and again on Wednesday night. For Sunday night, there is a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the Red River Valley of
north Texas including McCurtain county OK, Red River, Franklin,
and Titus county in northeast Texas. Severe weather threat shifts
eastward to include mainly Southern Arkansas on Monday morning.
For Wednesday night, the severe weather threat will be areawide.

Otherwise, temperatures to range from highs in the 80s and lows in
the 50s and lower 60s through the forecast period. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1245 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 24/18z TAFs, convection is already developing along and
ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline from Central Oklahoma
southward into Texas. The convection is expected to intensify as
it moves into the ArkLaTex region after 24/21z. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible at all TAF sites during the next
24 hours. Some scattered convection is also possible ahead of the
main line. Latest high resolution models suggest a second round of
storms will develop early Saturday morning as the front moves
across the area. Rain chances should finally end at KMLU very late
in the TAF period. A few instances of MVFR ceilings persist, but
most terminals should by VFR this afternoon until impacts from the
showers and thunderstorms occur. Ceilings may decrease back into
the MVFR range during the overnight hours, but clearing skies and
VFR conditions should prevail by the end of the period. Strong
southerly surface winds will also persist, with some locations in
East Texas expected to see gusts near 35 kts. Wind speeds should
diminish back to around 10 kts overnight and become westerly
following the frontal passage.

CN

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1008 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers beginning to move into east Texas this morning ahead of
a dryline across central Texas. Visible satellite imagery showing
well developed cyclonic feature across the Texas panhandle pushing
southeast toward the Arklatex. Lapse rates forecast to increase as
heights fall in response to approaching upper-low. Increased lapse
rates combined with enhanced low-level moisture will provide
instability to support strong thunderstorms later today. Will
maintain high temperatures slightly above guidance due to the
possibility of cloud breaks and compressional heating ahead of the
dryline. Otherwise, lake wind advisory remains in effect through 1
AM. Current forecast is on track, no updates at this time. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  76  53  84 /  90  20   0  10
MLU  64  79  53  83 /  90  50  10   0
DEQ  52  71  46  80 /  60  10   0  10
TXK  56  73  51  81 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  60  75  50  81 /  90  30   0  10
TYR  55  74  54  84 /  40   0   0  10
GGG  57  75  53  84 /  70  10   0  10
LFK  60  79  55  85 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05



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