Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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220
FXUS64 KSHV 220221
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
921 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017


.AVIATION...
For the 22/00Z terminal forecast expecting the mostly VFR flight
categories except for parts of North Central Louisiana where
showers and thunderstorms remain persistant, to give way to
MVFR during the rest of the overnight hours. A strong inflow of
Southerly low level moisture out ahead of an approaching
upper level storm system and cold front will allow conditions
to deteriorate to MVFR. Thunderstorms expected across area
terminals from 22/09Z across TYR/GGG/TXK/ELD to 22/12Z across
LFK/SHV. Lingering convection to persist through 22/15Z with
Southeast winds becoming Northwest at around 15 knots and gusty.
Ceilings to remain MVFR through 22/18Z with low clouds/ceilings
following in wake of the frontal system. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 729 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early update to increase PoPs over our far ern parishes. Ongoing
convection across those areas has shown very little sign of
diminishing over the last few hours. In addition, have gone ahead
and made some updates to the overnight PoPs. See no reason why
high categorical PoPs shouldn`t be extended sewd into NW LA, as a
well-defined squall line seems imminent, and models are in good
agreement that it will reach well sewd into our region by 12Z.

Will reevaluate in a couple of hours and make additional updates
if needed. If none are needed, will let this stand as the official
evening update. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Low topped warm air advection showers developing in low lvl
moisture beneath mid lvl capping. Limited thunder and confined
mostly to se corner of cwa and further south. This activity will
likely diminish by sunset with the linear mcs just getting going
over central OK by then. A squall line expected to arrive in se OK
just after midnight, but including pops for possibility of
development across this area just before midnight. Stg to possible
svr wind gusts may accompany the leading edge of these storms as
they enter the Red River Basin. However, as this line moves into
remaining portions of the area, expect any svr storms to weaken
considerably well before sunrise as the storms enter the heart of
the cwa. One to near two inches of beneficial rainfall will catch
most of the region during the late night and morning hours Sunday.
Some of this could linger across eastern portions of area into the
aftn hours, depending on the trough beginning to close off as it
moves east across northern AR. Although winds will gust from the
w-nw after the storms, marginal and fairly brief nature of these
gusty winds may preclude issuance of lwa.  As these storms
develop along a pre frontal sfc trough, colder air will not begin
to arrive until Monday night with the main cold front. Tuesday
will thus be another day of nw winds, in the 10 to 15 mph range,
with decoupling winds and good rad cooling Tue night with most
overnight lows into the 40s. Skies will remain mostly sunny in
drier airmass thru the week with the arrival of another upper
trough late week. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  74  52  76 / 100  70  10  10
MLU  69  76  56  74 /  60  80  20  10
DEQ  63  71  49  76 / 100  30  10  10
TXK  65  72  50  76 / 100  50  10  10
ELD  68  73  51  74 /  80  70  20  10
TYR  64  72  51  76 / 100  50  10  10
GGG  66  73  50  76 / 100  60  10  10
LFK  70  77  51  77 /  60  70  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/12/7



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