Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221150
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
550 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 22/12z TAFs, an upper trough will move across the Arklatex
today which should result in another round of convection, mainly
across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest/Southern Arkansas, and
extreme Northeast Texas. Some of this activity may develop far
enough south to affect KSHV and KMLU. An isolated strong or severe
thunderstorm with an associated hail threat will remain possible
due to cold temperatures aloft. VFR conditions should generally
prevail areawide, but wrap-around clouds and the convection could
result in ceilings dipping into the MVFR category in a few places.
As a cold front moves across the area early in the period, surface
winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest and will
increase in speed to 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 35 mph. Wind
speeds should gradually diminish, and skies should gradually clear
from northwest to southeast after 23/03z as the upper trough moves
east of the region.

/09/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Light showers continue to track east across portions of east
Texas, north Louisiana, and southern Arkansas this morning as
surface and upper low exit the region. West to northwest winds
forecast to increase throughout the day as pressure gradient
tightens across the region. Gradient should be sufficient to allow
for northwest winds to increase to as high as 25 MPH with gusts
to 35 MPH this afternoon. VAD wind profile currently observing
wind speeds of 25 kts at 1kft and 40 kts at 2kft, supporting
forecast wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts later today. A lake wind
advisory remains in effect through 9PM tonight.

Upper-level convergence on the back side of retreating low to
allow for showers and isolated thunderstorms across south-central
Arkansas and north Louisiana later today. Conditions to improve
by sunset with skies becoming mostly clear across the region by
midnight as surface high settles across the region. Overnight
temperatures forecast to fall into lower 40s across most
locations with highs on Monday forecast to climb into the lower
60s.

A persistent pattern characterized by highs in the lower 60s and
lows in the 40s to persist through Tuesday. Surface high to shift
east on Tuesday night allowing for a weak cold front to move
across the region. Could see a slight chance of showers across
north-central Louisiana on Wednesday morning.

High pressure to rebuild behind the cold front on Wednesday
allowing for dry conditions to persist through the remainder of
the forecast period with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s each
day. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  43  65  47 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  64  44  61  42 /  40  10   0   0
DEQ  60  37  61  40 /  40  10   0   0
TXK  60  40  62  44 /  40  10   0   0
ELD  62  41  61  42 /  40  10   0   0
TYR  62  42  65  49 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  62  42  64  47 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  65  43  67  48 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this
     evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

&&

$$

05/09



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