Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 050930
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE TONGUE OF DRY AIR ALONG
THE GULF COAST REGION WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE NUDGES
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT HAS NOW ADVANCED
THROUGH THE REGION AND REINFORCED THE VERY DRY AND MILD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. THIS FRONT WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SPELL A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND
LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS
OUR NW THIRD...THEN EXPAND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT
LINGERS OUT WEST AND DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT. BY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL GAIN SOME FORWARD
MOMENTUM AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WORKS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
ADVANCING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WHILE THE EURO SOLUTION IS MUCH SLOWER IN CLEARING OUT THE
FRONT. SO UNLIKE THIS WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR NEXT WEEK WILL OFFER
MORE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7-DAY FORECAST AMOUNTS ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND AN INCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  79  50  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  79  48  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  79  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  77  47  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  79  53  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  82  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19


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