Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 211152 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 21/12Z TAF PERIOD. SKC
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT CU FIELD AND INCREASING CIRRUS
FROM THE NW AROUND MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR A
GAG...TO PNC...TO JLN TO N OF A SGF LINE AS OF 11Z WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT S INTO SE OK/CNTRL AR BY MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY MIXING S
INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCT CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT S ACROSS OK/AR WITH THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SE OK/SW AR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS FOR THE
AREA TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY BE AMENDED TO
INCLUDE MENTION PER RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COULD SEE A BKN CU/AC FIELD DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN CIGS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT FROM N TO S OVER SE OK/EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
E TX/N LA AROUND 06Z...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND 12Z MONDAY.
THUS...ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT. LT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME NNW AROUND 5KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS S OF
THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...NNE WINDS 5-10KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
UNSEASONAL WARMTH TO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO...GETS PUSHED SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH INTO OHIO VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MID 90S THIS AFTN WHEN
CALCULATING A COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
REMAINING TO THE EAST...AND WITH LACK OF GULF FLOW...EXPECT
MOISTURE TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURG THE NOCTURNAL TIME FRAME
OF FROPA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION OVER SW AR AND
POSSIBLY SE OK TODAY ACCORDING TO NAM. GFS KEEPS MID LVLS TOO DRY
WITH FRONT. DESPITE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE N/NW UPPER LVL
FLOW. THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS...THUS MAKING THE DISTINCTION BTWN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RATHER UNCLEAR FOR THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...
REMAINDER OF ATMOSPHERE WELL TO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN WAY OF
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. TOWARDS END OF WEEK...SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE NWD ALONG LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SO INTRODUCING ISOLD
POPS FOR MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  66  87  61  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
MLU  94  63  83  58  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
DEQ  89  59  82  56  79 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  90  61  83  57  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  91  61  82  56  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  93  67  87  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  67  88  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
LFK  93  67  90  64  86 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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