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000
FXUS64 KSHV 020543
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR BR/DZ/-RA TO PERSIST MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS CYCLE WITH
VERY LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. ALOFT...WE ARE RIGHT BACK TO SW FLOW BY
3KFT 15-35KT ON CLIMB INTO THE MID LEVELS AS SKIES CLEAR UNDER FRZ
LEVEL. A WEAK SFC FRONT STATIONARY ALONG I-10 WILL KEEP TO OUR
SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-10KTS...THEN LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD AND SFC
WINDS GUSTS FM SW 10-20KTS. OUTLOOK...IS FOR WARMER AND WETTER DAY
ON TUESDAY WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY WED AM.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR WEAK STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN REINFORCED SWD INTO EXTREME SE
TX AND SCNTRL LA THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK PRESSURE
RISES AHEAD OF SFC RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY.
STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290-300K SURFACES THIS EVENING ATOP THIS VERY SHALLOW COLD AIR
DOME...WHICH THE SHORT TERM PROGS SHIFT FARTHER NWD INTO EXTREME
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK LATE. THUS...WHERE THE HIGHER MVFR CIGS ARE THIS
EVENING OVER THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF EXTREME NE TX INTO ADJACENT
SW AR N OF TXK...THESE SHOULD LOWER WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS THIS
-RA/-DZ SPREADS NNE OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT A TAD FARTHER S
OVERNIGHT...AND THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS QUITE STABLE /PER THE
00Z KSHV RAOB/...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST TONIGHT/MONDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS A TAD THIS EVENING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR...BEFORE RAMPING THEM BACK UP TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY AFTER 06Z AS THE -SHRA SPREADS BACK NNE. TEMPS FOR
THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT /FROM THE 03Z
OBS/...WITH A 1-2 DEGREE FALL AT MOST EXPECTED. DID MAKE MINOR
TWEAKS BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS...WITH THE SRN ZONES LOWERED A
COUPLE DEGREES AS THEY HAD FALLEN COOLER THAN THEIR PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST MINS.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  50  50  69  53 /  70  70  40  50  70
MLU  43  47  47  70  58 /  70  70  40  50  60
DEQ  38  46  41  64  41 /  50  50  50  70  60
TXK  39  44  41  66  48 /  60  60  50  70  70
ELD  39  44  44  67  51 /  70  70  40  50  70
TYR  40  48  48  68  49 /  70  60  40  60  60
GGG  42  49  49  71  52 /  70  70  40  50  70
LFK  45  55  54  75  60 /  60  70  30  40  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15