


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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139 FXUS64 KSHV 150521 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Rain chances are confined to our far northern zones today as the heat begins its grip on the Four State Region. - Heat Advisories will likely begin as early as Wednesday, across at least most of Northern Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. - We continue to watch the Tropics as there is now a 40% chance of Cyclone Formation across the Northern Gulf Coast through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Extended the Flood Watch through 12z and there is a chance it could be cancelled before then as far northwest McCurtain County in Oklahoma continues to experience scattered showers and thunderstorms. These were a little more concentrated earlier Monday Evening as these storms developed along a remnant MCV that was spinning across far NE TX and SE OK earlier in the day. Rainfall rates have dropped off considerably and with the center of this MCV having made slow but steady progress north and east late tonight, we may be able to cancel this Flood Watch a little earlier than 12z in the morning. Otherwise drier air in the form of PWATS at or just under 1.5 inches will begin infiltrating our region from the south today and that should squash precipitation chances across all but our far northern zones as there will continue to be a weakening remnant shear axis in place. This shear axis will combine with daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered convection on Tuesday but it should taper off early Tuesday Evening. Beyond Tuesday, upper ridging will be the key player across our region for Wednesday and that should allow for at least a 2 to 3 degree temperature rise areawide across our entire region. When you add those kind of ambient temperatures to already elevated dewpoints you get Heat Indices meeting or exceeding 105 degrees which means Heat Advisory headlines will most definitely become necessary for Wednesday. The near critical heat indices will likely be felt across portions of Southern Arkansas and most all of Northern Louisiana on Wednesday so while these areas are more of a slam dunk concerning the necessity of a Heat Advisory on Wednesday, we may see enough mixing down of dewpoints across most of NE TX such that maximum heat indices may be just below the key criteria of 105 degrees but bordering counties in NE TX will be close. By Thursday, many of us will still be dealing with the heat but we begin to look to our southeast for returning tropical moisture as we may see an easterly wave trying to get its act together across the NE Gulf of America. This are still a lot of discrepancies in model output as to how quickly this feature will develop (if at all) but one thing is true is that gulf waters are very warm and there will be virtually no shear to deal with as this feature will ride under the upper ridge axis that will remain firmly in place across our region. NBM has increased pops across our southeast for Thursday and across our eastern half on Friday into Saturday. Assuming this system hugs the northern Gulf Coast or tries to come into Southeast or Southern Louisiana sometime in the Friday/Saturday timeframe, could see the necessity of Flood Watches across our southeast zones during this timeframe. Confidence is not high on just what the remnants of such a feature would do (assuming it comes on shore for the weekend as it will become blocked by the upper ridge and thus, could continue to hamper our region into early next week in the form of increased rain chances. NBM pops are on the low side and confined to our far east and southeast zones for late weekend into early next week with pops and temperatures highly dependent on the remnants of said tropical feature. 13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 For the 15/06Z TAFs, showers and storms look to remain to the north of the I-30 corridor overnight with the only impacts at KTXK if convection develops south of the current line. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail with scattered high clouds, followed by CIG reductions near daybreak at sites where winds become light to near calm, including VSBY drops with mist and fog development at KLFK and KELD. Conditions will rebound to VFR by late morning, continuing through the afternoon. Thunderstorm development during the day looks to remain well north of I-20, with impacts to KTXK and possibly KELD. South winds will become light overnight, increasing to sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts and becoming southwesterly during the day, with gusts of up to 15 kts possible. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Activation of storm spotter are not expected today through tonight. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 96 77 98 77 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 96 76 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 91 72 93 71 / 40 10 0 0 TXK 96 75 98 75 / 20 10 0 0 ELD 94 74 98 74 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 94 74 95 74 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 94 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...26