139
FXUS64 KSHV 150521
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

 - Rain chances are confined to our far northern zones today as
   the heat begins its grip on the Four State Region.

 - Heat Advisories will likely begin as early as Wednesday, across
   at least most of Northern Louisiana and Southern Arkansas.

 - We continue to watch the Tropics as there is now a 40% chance
   of Cyclone Formation across the Northern Gulf Coast through the
   end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Extended the Flood Watch through 12z and there is a chance it
could be cancelled before then as far northwest McCurtain County
in Oklahoma continues to experience scattered showers and
thunderstorms. These were a little more concentrated earlier
Monday Evening as these storms developed along a remnant MCV that
was spinning across far NE TX and SE OK earlier in the day.
Rainfall rates have dropped off considerably and with the center
of this MCV having made slow but steady progress north and east
late tonight, we may be able to cancel this Flood Watch a little
earlier than 12z in the morning.

Otherwise drier air in the form of PWATS at or just under 1.5
inches will begin infiltrating our region from the south today
and that should squash precipitation chances across all but our
far northern zones as there will continue to be a weakening
remnant shear axis in place. This shear axis will combine with
daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered convection on
Tuesday but it should taper off early Tuesday Evening. Beyond
Tuesday, upper ridging will be the key player across our region
for Wednesday and that should allow for at least a 2 to 3 degree
temperature rise areawide across our entire region. When you add
those kind of ambient temperatures to already elevated dewpoints
you get Heat Indices meeting or exceeding 105 degrees which means
Heat Advisory headlines will most definitely become necessary for
Wednesday. The near critical heat indices will likely be felt
across portions of Southern Arkansas and most all of Northern
Louisiana on Wednesday so while these areas are more of a slam
dunk concerning the necessity of a Heat Advisory on Wednesday, we
may see enough mixing down of dewpoints across most of NE TX such
that maximum heat indices may be just below the key criteria of
105 degrees but bordering counties in NE TX will be close.

By Thursday, many of us will still be dealing with the heat but we
begin to look to our southeast for returning tropical moisture as
we may see an easterly wave trying to get its act together across
the NE Gulf of America. This are still a lot of discrepancies in
model output as to how quickly this feature will develop (if at
all) but one thing is true is that gulf waters are very warm and
there will be virtually no shear to deal with as this feature will
ride under the upper ridge axis that will remain firmly in place
across our region. NBM has increased pops across our southeast for
Thursday and across our eastern half on Friday into Saturday.
Assuming this system hugs the northern Gulf Coast or tries to come
into Southeast or Southern Louisiana sometime in the
Friday/Saturday timeframe, could see the necessity of Flood
Watches across our southeast zones during this timeframe.

Confidence is not high on just what the remnants of such a feature
would do (assuming it comes on shore for the weekend as it will
become blocked by the upper ridge and thus, could continue to
hamper our region into early next week in the form of increased
rain chances. NBM pops are on the low side and confined to our far
east and southeast zones for late weekend into early next week
with pops and temperatures highly dependent on the remnants of
said tropical feature.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the 15/06Z TAFs, showers and storms look to remain to the
north of the I-30 corridor overnight with the only impacts at
KTXK if convection develops south of the current line. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions prevail with scattered high clouds, followed by
CIG reductions near daybreak at sites where winds become light to
near calm, including VSBY drops with mist and fog development at
KLFK and KELD. Conditions will rebound to VFR by late morning,
continuing through the afternoon. Thunderstorm development during
the day looks to remain well north of I-20, with impacts to KTXK
and possibly KELD. South winds will become light overnight,
increasing to sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts and becoming
southwesterly during the day, with gusts of up to 15 kts possible.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Activation of storm spotter are not expected today through
tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  77  98  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  96  76  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  72  93  71 /  40  10   0   0
TXK  96  75  98  75 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  94  74  98  74 /  20  10   0   0
TYR  94  74  95  74 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  94  74  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  95  74  96  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26