Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 040539
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1139 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 04/06z TAFs, precip has diminished or exited most of the
area, with the exception of mainly North Central Louisiana. A few
showers may affect KMLU in the first couple of hours of the
period. Elsewhere, IFR/LIFR conditions prevail areawide with ENE
surface winds around 10 kts with some higher gusts near 15 to 20
kts. Wind speed should diminish somewhat before sunrise, which
allowing LIFR conditions to spread nearly areawide as patchy fog
develops and ceilings lower. A slight improvement in ceilings and
visibilities into the MVFR range is expected after sunrise, but
another round of rain should develop during the daytime hours
affecting nearly the entire area. Model guidance suggests the
precip will begin to diminish from north to south after 04/18z.
However, rain will likely persist for most of the period south of
Interstate 20, mainly from KLFK eastward into Central Louisiana.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Made a few adjustments to the forecast for the remainder of
tonight. Latest high-res model runs indicate that precipitation
will continue to gradually diminish from the west through the
remainder of the night as an inverted surface trough shifts east
of the region. For this update, went ahead and decreased pops
significantly across southeast Oklahoma and portions of southwest
Arkansas and northeast Texas. Also replaced shower wording with
rain in these areas. Reluctant to pull back on precip across areas
south of Interstate 20 at this time due to ongoing precip despite
the fact that it continues to gradually diminish. Otherwise,
forecast looks good. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  52  47  50 /  90  70  70  90
MLU  48  52  48  53 / 100  70  70  90
DEQ  43  52  42  47 /  30  20  30  80
TXK  45  51  45  48 /  50  40  40  90
ELD  45  50  46  48 / 100  50  50  90
TYR  47  53  47  50 /  50  60  70  90
GGG  47  52  47  50 /  60  60  70  90
LFK  50  53  50  54 / 100  80  90  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/09



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