Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 140304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140304
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-140430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...FAR S IL/W KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 140304Z - 140430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING E FROM S-CNTRL MO. MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL STRENGTH
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR A WW ISSUANCE OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE LONG PERSISTED
ALONG A COMPOSITE WEAK FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAVE INTENSIFIED
SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST HALF HOUR ALONG THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS PULASKI/LACLEDE COUNTY MO. THIS ORIENTATION IS MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN WLYS...WITH 2-6 KM AGL VALUES
AROUND 30 KT PER LSX/SGF VWP DATA. THIS STRENGTH OF FLOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL STRUCTURES AMIDST A 1.75-2 IN PW PLUME
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL RISK SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A
STRENGTHENING COLD POOL COULD YIELD A GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED
THREAT TOWARDS THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37959174 37859083 37748911 37808786 37828705 37408704
            36818756 36568873 36428958 36429098 36729208 37099253
            37289261 37959174



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