Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 252352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to trend downward across western
areas through the evening, but organized clusters and lines of storms
will continue to propagate east and southeastward across the eastern
plains through the overnight hours. Numerous severe thunderstorms
are expected with large hail and erratic wet microburst wind gusts
over 50 KT. Heavy rain and minor flooding may also impact some
airfields east of the central mountain chain. Widespread low clouds
are again expected east of the central mountain chain (and possibly
over SAF) tonight through mid day Monday. Monday afternoon and
evening, mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms will form over
the mountains and again drift southeastward over adjacent lowlands.



.PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the
continental divide will be capable of producing large hail and wet
microbursts with erratic wind gusts over 60 mph this evening and
tonight. The focus should shift to the area along and east of the
central mountain chain as the evening progresses. Torrential
downpours on burn scars will pose a risk of localized flash
flooding. Drier air and less convection is expected along and north
of a line from Gallup to Cuba.

Humidities will begin to trend downward Monday, and especially
Tuesday and Wednesday, as the low level flow gradually veers out of
the south and eventually the west in response to an upper level
trough crossing the northern and central Rockies. Thunderstorm
coverage will trend downward as well, to a lesser extent Monday,
then moreso Tuesday when storms should favor the north central,
southwest and south central mountains. Dry weather is expected
Wednesday through Thursday. The trough passing north of NM will
strengthen the flow aloft and work with a stout surface trough in
the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Range to make surface winds breezy
across the east, north and west Tuesday and Wednesday. Humidities
will bottom out in the single digits across much of the west
Tuesday, and across most of the fire weather forecast area on
Wednesday and Thursday. Poor humidity recoveries are also expected.
Some locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast west of
the continental divide on Tuesday, and east of the central mountains
Wednesday. Haines indices will reflect the drier conditions with
increasing values of 6 across the west Monday, widespread 6`s across
central and western areas Tuesday, then areawide Wednesday and

The dry conditions will persist until a moist back door cold front
brings some humidity improvement along and east of the central
mountain chain Friday.  There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in and east of the Sangre de Cristos Friday and
Saturday. However, very low humidities and Haines of 6 will persist
farther west as a slow moving upper level trough digs into the Great




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