Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 020852
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEW POINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  87  45  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  87  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  88  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  83  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  87  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  85  51  84  53 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  91  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  82  43  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  84  55  84  54 /   5   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  49  84  49 /   0   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  73  47  75  48 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  43  79  43 /   5   5   5   5
TAOS............................  86  47  87  49 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  82  51  84  51 /   5   5  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  91  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  86  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  96  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  57  86  56 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  58  87  58 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  84  56 /   5   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  84  56  88  55 /   5   5   5   5
RATON...........................  88  52  91  52 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  89  53  92  54 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  54  87  54 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  88  62  95  63 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  86  59  90  58 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  92  65  96  65 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  92  63  94  63 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  95  67  98  66 /   5   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  94  64  94  63 /   0   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  95  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  65  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  98  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  87  59  85  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY









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