Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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098
FXUS65 KABQ 091745 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1045 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
INLAND NW WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...250 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY AREAS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. A PAIR OF BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL KNOCK HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AMIDST A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. DRY AND WARM WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THIS WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH INCHING EASTWARD. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO
LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE JUST SHY OF RECORDS FOR THE DATE. WILL BE WATCHING FOR A FEW
BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...NAMELY ON THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY. THESE WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK A BIT... BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
STREAMS MAY RISE A BIT AS SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT OCCURS DUE
TO 700 MB TEMPS IN THE +2 TO +5C RANGE.

MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CLIPS
NE NM. DESPITE THE TROUGH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY MOISTURE WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INTO NM...THUS PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NIL. COULD SEE
WINDS PICK UP A BIT HOWEVER.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE
WEST COAST AND AGAIN SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
VERY DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING UNDER THIS RIDGE AS WELL.
THUS...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY...IS
DELAYED YET AGAIN AND MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INLAND WEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK ASIDE FROM COOLER HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE TEENS AND LOW TWENTIES ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR SETTLES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND AROUND ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS...BELOW ZERO IN
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

VENTILATION RATES WILL BE IN THE POOR RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM. SOME IMPROVEMENT
WILL TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST WITH MODERATE BREEZES AND
HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. A DRY BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH POOR VENT RATES RETURNING TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL COOL
BY UP TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL THURSDAY.

MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC TROUGH
THIS COMING WEEKEND. THEY TAKE THIS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH AND IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO PRESS INTO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
A BETTER PUSH LIKELY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL UP TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES AT LEAST WILL
IMPROVE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL
GET KNOCKED DOWN BY THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND RESULTING INCREASE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP MIXING HEIGHTS SOME.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11/33



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