Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 190600 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Mid level clouds near 10kft will develop northeastward across NM
thru sunrise as significant moisture advection approaches from AZ.
An area of SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop in the lower Rio Grande
Valley around 15Z then spread over the Sacramento Mts and into the
KROW area thru 20Z. Guidance is in very good agreement a second area
of SHRA/TSRA will develop along the Cont Dvd by 22Z then spread east
across the Rio Grande Valley into KABQ/KAEG btwn 01Z and 04Z. The
main impact initially will be strong, erratic outflow wind gusts,
followed by potential borderline VFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys with direct
hits from TSRA. These two precip areas are expected to merge into a
larger mass of RA with embedded TS over eastern NM thru tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...235 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017...
A decent shot at some rain over the next 36 hours, especially south
of Interstate 40, then mostly dry from Friday through the middle of
next week. Upper level disturbances centered over far west TX and
nearing Las Vegas, NV will join forces to bring NM some rain tonight
through Thursday night. Best chances and most QPF will be south of
I-40. A stronger short wave trough will reach the west coast early
Friday, cross the Great Basin Friday night and pass NM Saturday.
Winds will increase sharply Friday and continue into Saturday. A
back door cold front will rush south and west Saturday night with
noticeably cooler air behind it for Sunday. The first half of next
week will be dry. Temperatures will rise Monday, fall behind another
cold front on Tuesday, then start to warm up again Wednesday.


Showers and thunderstorms are starting to pop over the NM bootheel,
a sign of things to come. Upper level disturbances to our south and
west will help generate precipitation over our CWA, starting this
evening in our southwest and south central mountains. Rain will
expand north and east Thursday, then start to end Thursday night
from west to east. The highest POPS and rain amounts will be south
of I-40 during this time, with one half inch amounts likely over the
south central mountains and highlands. Little or no snow will fall
even on the highest mountain peaks. Highs Thursday will be cooler
than today, although still near to above normal.

A stronger short wave trough will crash onto the west coast early
Friday and move steadily east, crossing NM Saturday. There will not
be much precipitation with this trough, but winds will be on the
increase Friday, possibly reaching advisory speeds on the northeast.
Saturday will remain breezy to windy in many areas. What precip we
get will fall over the northern mountains and northeast high terrain
late Friday night into Saturday, in the form of rain and higher
elevation snow showers. Two cold fronts, a pacific and polar, will
combine to bring cooler temperatures Saturday and Saturday night.

Sunday through Wednesday look to be dry without of lot of wind as a
strong area of high pressure grows over the western states. resulting
in northwest flow over NM. A trough to our north may drop a potent
back door cold front into the state Monday night. So, a cool Sunday
will be followed by a milder Monday, only to cool back down again on
Tuesday, especially in the east. The roller coaster temperatures will
trend back up Wednesday.



A negatively tilted upper level trough will cross the state on
Thursday with enough moisture to cause minimum humidities to rise
around 5 to 20 percent above today`s readings. A wave of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to cross the area from west to east
Thursday and Thursday night. From 0.10-0.50 of an inch of rain
accumulation is expected over central and south central areas, with
lighter amounts elsewhere, and little or no accumulation along the
northern border. High temperatures will also cool a few to 9 degrees
below today`s readings on Thursday, while ventilation improves
across northern areas.

In the wake of the upper trough drier and warmer air will arrive
from the southwest on Friday as another upper level trough crosses
the northern and central Rockies. Winds aloft will also strengthen,
and a surface trough will deepen in the lee of the southern Rockies
causing southwest winds to become breezy to windy.  The strongest
winds should reach 40 mph along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains Friday afternoon. The upper trough will drive a Pacific
cold front southeastward through the state Friday night and Saturday
morning with brisk northwest flow aloft that will cause northwest
winds to gust around 30 to 40 mph from around Farmington
southeastward through Albuquerque and Clines Corners to near Clovis.
A back door cold front will also dive southward through the eastern
plains Saturday afternoon and night. The storm system could trigger
a few rain and mountain snow showers near the CO border Saturday,
but little or no accumulation is expected.  In the wake of the
fronts, widespread poor ventilation is expected Sunday. Pockets of
ventilation improvement will occur from Farmington southeastward to
Portales Monday, before increasing further in coverage on Tuesday.

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will then build over the
West Coast and Great Basin Sunday through Tuesday causing the
weather to remain dry over NM. After cooler temperatures over the
weekend, readings will rebound Monday only to fall again with a
gusty back door cold front that will push through the eastern plains
Monday night and into the central valley on Tuesday.





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