Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 032125
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL TREND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MANY AREAS
OF THE STATE WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S...WITH EVEN A
COUPLE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH THURSDAY THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AND USHER IN COLDER AIR AND THE CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE TODAY FORCED
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY IS MAKING
ITS WAY WESTWARD THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND WILL
DELIVER A BRIEF BOUT OF LIGHT CANYON WINDS THIS EVENING. A WEAK
SHEARED UPPER VORT AXIS OVER THE STATE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE SURFACE FRONT HAS LED TO A COUPLE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR
583DM AND 850-700MB LAYER WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL
WARM ANOTHER 5 TO 10F WHILE 700MB TEMPS TREND TO +8C. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK SINCE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
700-500MB LAYER FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25KT AS THE H5
RIDGE CRESTS EAST INTO WEST TX. WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN
S/SW FLOW WILL HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE CONT
DVD BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FORCING BUT NOT SO HOT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY WHILE 700-500MB
LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 45KT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED WITH
THE DEEPER MIXING TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY TO SEE A FEW AREAS WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS SOME CONCERN IN
THE EAST FOR A POTENTIAL DRYLINE TO POP OFF A FEW STRONG STORMS
WHERE THE REMNANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
SHIFTS EASTWARD. LEFT ISOLD POPS FOR NOW AS THE 12Z ECMWF STILL
SHOWS THE DRYLINE AS FAR WEST AS TUCUMCARI AND FORT SUMNER.
SURFACE WINDS ARE SHOWN BY MOST GUIDANCE TO BACK TO THE S/SE AND
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST FORCES A STRONG DRYSLOT OVER THE STATE SATURDAY.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPS WITH
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THE SYSTEM CAN CARVE OUT FARTHER SOUTH
THEN THE PATTERN MAY BE MORE ACTIVE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
WITHIN THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS ARE ALREADY SHOWN TO
BE 10 TO 20F BELOW NORMAL YET AGAIN.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH NM THIS AFTN A FEW SHOWERS AND RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND SE MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS BETWEEN THE HIGHLANDS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND THE EAST SLOPES OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THESE WILL
DISSIPATE PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A QUIET UNEVENTFUL
NIGHT IN THEIR WAKE. WARMER AND...FOR MOST LOCALES...DRY
CONDITIONS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THU AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EASES RATHER SLOWLY EAST OVER THE STATE. ALONG WITH THE WARMING
COMES IMPROVING VENT RATES STARTING MAINLY THU WHEN THEY IMPROVE
TO VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE AND EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE FROM FRI THRU MON. AFTN TEMPS WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THU...BUT THEN DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FROM WEST TO
EAST FRI THRU SAT AND ALL AREAS SUN AND MON. FRI AND SAT MAY BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS...FRI IN
PATCHY FASHION ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA AND
SAT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY ADVECT IN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
DEPARTING RIDGE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY FIRE LATER THU AFTN AND EVE...INITIATING ALONG OR A LITTLE WAYS
EITHER SIDE OF THE CONT DIVIDE...THEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. BUT
WETTING FOOTPRINTS WILL BE FEW AND SMALL...IF ANY. HAINES INDICES
WILL INCREASE TO 5 AND 6 ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY FRI AND SAT...
SHRINKING BACK MAINLY TO THE EAST HALF SUN.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN
THE CENTRAL TO NE HIGHLANDS AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WILL
STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF
SHRA OR TSRA IMPACT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT OR NEAR LVS AND SAF
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z AND 02Z. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EASING UP TO
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY EARLY TO MID AFTN WILL
LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
BRING SOME...AT MOST...MODERATE GUSTS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
ABQ METRO AREA OCCURRING DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN APPROX 01Z AND
08Z. GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW 30 KTS.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  77  47  83 /   0   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  31  72  35  78 /   0   0   0  10
CUBA............................  34  71  40  78 /   0   0   0  10
GALLUP..........................  36  76  41  81 /   0   0   0  20
EL MORRO........................  32  69  36  74 /   0   0   0  30
GRANTS..........................  33  73  37  78 /   0   0   0  20
QUEMADO.........................  39  74  44  78 /   0   0   0  20
GLENWOOD........................  42  82  44  84 /   0   0   0  10
CHAMA...........................  31  65  35  70 /   0   5   0  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  69  45  76 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  36  68  39  74 /   0   0   0  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  68  34  74 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................  25  58  28  64 /   5   5   0  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  25  61  28  67 /   5   5   0  20
TAOS............................  32  68  35  75 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  34  65  38  72 /   0   0   0  10
ESPANOLA........................  41  75  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  39  67  43  75 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  38  72  42  79 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  74  50  81 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  76  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  77  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  44  78  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  42  76  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  44  77  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  46  79  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  39  70  46  77 /   5   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  41  72  46  80 /  10   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  70  38  78 /   5   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  35  68  40  75 /   0   0   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  39  71  43  78 /  10   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  43  75  45  82 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  38  68  41  76 /  10   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  34  67  40  74 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  31  70  36  77 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  32  72  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  34  69  38  76 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  40  74  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  35  70  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  41  77  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  41  75  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  39  79  44  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  42  77  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  43  77  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  42  77  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  43  81  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  41  76  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  39  71  43  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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