Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 301126 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AFT 20Z
WITH AREAS OF VIRGA LEADING TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
STEERING FLOWS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF VCSH AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR ALL AREAS UNDER
SLIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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