Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 172357 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
457 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Showers and an isolated thunderstorm moving north from the south
central mountains to southern Quay County. Showers will mostly
impact KROW but also KTCC. Not enough confidence to put an showers
in KLVS. Rain will linger into tonight while clouds and
visibilities drop again overnight. MVFR and IFR conditions for a
majority of the RAF sites, and LIFR possible at KLVS. Kept KABQ,
KAEG and KSAF VFR. All locations return to VFR conditions
Wednesday. Moderate west winds centered around KCQC Wednesday


.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017...
A batch of showers with isolated thunderstorms will move over the
southeast plains late this afternoon into the evening hours. Skies
clear out overnight into Wednesday morning over the Land of
Enchantment with a slight warming trend beginning for the western
half of the state. A ridge builds in from the west with westerly
winds providing downslope flow over the eastern plains Wednesday
and Thursday. High temperatures will range from 5 to 15 degrees
above normal for the eastern plains Thursday. The first of three
quick hitting troughs push in from the west Friday, increasing
the chance for mountain snow and valley rain. Temperatures drop
back below normal for the weekend, with plenty of cloud cover
through the weekend.


A SW/NE oriented jet max over the Texas big bend region has
helped destabilize the atmosphere enough over the south central
mountains to generate some showers, with isolated thunderstorms
possible over the southeast plains later this afternoon into the
overnight hours. This jet feature quickly pulls off to the
northeast overnight, with a ridge of high pressure quickly
building in from the west Wednesday and Thursday. Warmer
temperatures are on tap for Wednesday and Thursday, especially
over the eastern plains. Westerly downslope winds across the
eastern plains will help boost highs 5 to 15 degrees above

The first of three troughs progged to push across the region moves
in late Thursday night into Friday. Models are in good agreement
for orographically forced precipitation over the western half of
the state, strong winds over high peaks and east slopes, and much
cooler temperatures compared to the prior two days. Precipitation
will favor western slopes as cold unstable upslope flow develops.
There is no break between the first and second trough pushing in
late Friday, with the second being more potent than the first.
Stronger winds and even cooler temperatures will combine with a
higher chance for widespread winter precipitation across the
western half of the state with valley rain mixing as temperatures
warm up a bit Saturday afternoon. Both the GFS and ECMWF display
lee-side cyclogenesis of the first two systems, allowing a
backdoor cold front to slide across the eastern plains late
Saturday into Sunday. The eastern plains finally get their shot at
precipitation, with a wintry mix likely over the northeast
plains with the passage of the backdoor front.

A ridge builds in Sunday into Monday, with conditions clearing
out. The GFS and ECMWF diverge with the placement of the third
system Monday night into Tuesday. The Euro solution places the
track of the trough further north along the WY/CO border and into
southern Nebraska, where the GFS tracks through southern CO and
into southern Kansas. A southerly track of this system would favor
increased precipitation chances and higher winds over the northern
mountains. Have decided to take a blend of the models this far out
in the forecast period.



Unsettled weather will continue today as the upper level low lingers
over the state. Light to moderate showers with occasional
thunderstorms will favor areas south of the I-40 corridor. Low
clouds and fog will favor areas of recent wintry/wetting
precipitation overnight into early Wednesday morning as well.
Overnight lows will be above normal with light winds, poor vent
rates and excellent Rh recoveries.

Shower activity will be less Wed as the upper level low weakens
during it departure to our east by Wed evening. Vent rates will
trend upward along and south of the I-40 corridor with lessening
cloud cover and increasing W/NW breezes. By Thurs, a short period of
upper level ridging will set up over the state helping to filter in
drier mid level air. Temperatures will warm to near and above normal
readings central and east as westerly winds increase even more along
and east of the central mtn chain. Vent rates will improve greatly
across the west as surface dew points decrease.

Oh course the dry period will be short lived as three upper level
systems look to impact the state Fri through the early half of next
week. The first system will come through late Thurs/Fri, mainly
focusing on western and central NM, the second more potent wave will
come through late Fri-Sun afternoon, and the third system will come
through Mon/Tues. Look for windy, cooler and wetter conditions to
follow with each passing storm system. Vent rates will be good to
excellent Fri areawide before values deteriorate Sat/Sun north and
west, then becoming poor all over Mon. Rh recoveries will be good to
excellent throughout the entire forecast period.




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