Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 242214
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
314 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance moving across CO will move eastward
tonight, and a weak cold front will move across eastern NM in its
wake. The cold front will stall out in eastern NM Saturday with
daytime temperatures around 15 degrees cooler. West of the front,
highs Saturday will still be well above normal. Upper level high
pressure will build over the region on Sunday, and near record highs
will be possible across central and western NM. A lee surface trough
will form Monday near the NM/TX border, and breezy to windy
downsloping west to southwest winds will bring near record highs to
the eastern plains. An upper level trough will move across northern
AZ Tuesday and across northern NM Tuesday night. This system will
bring light precipitation to northern NM late Monday night into
Tuesday. A Pacific cold front will cross the state Tuesday and be
followed by a backdoor cold front late Tuesday. These cold fronts
will bring cooler weather Tuesday and Wednesday, but highs will still
be above normal. Another backdoor cold front Wednesday night into
early Thursday will drop temperatures back to near normal on
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A few record high temperatures have already been broken at 21Z
across northern and central NM, as warm temperatures aloft have
mixed down to the surface. The 21Z temperature at Gallup was 73 F,
and the previous record highs was 67F. In the eastern plains, Roswell
has tied the old record high of 83 F at 21Z, while Tucumcari was 83
F at 21Z, surpassing the old record high of 80 F. A weak upper level
trough will quickly move from eastern CO into the southern high
plains this evening, and a backdoor cold front will move across
eastern NM tonight into early Saturday morning. The front will stall
out across the eastern plains Saturday, and lower temperatures by 15
degrees across the eastern plains. Highs in the eastern plains will
still be above normal Saturday, while highs will be well above normal
to the west of the front across central and western NM.

A strong upper level ridge will build eastward over NM Sunday with
light winds and warmer temperatures across the entire region. Highs
Sunday will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the southeastern
plains and 15 to 22 degrees above normal across the rest of northern
and central NM. The highest chances for record-breaking temperatures
Sunday will be in central and western NM. On Monday, a surface lee
trough will strengthen along the NM/TX border, and the surface
pressure gradient will tighten significantly. As a result, west to
southwest winds will range from 15 to 30 mph Monday afternoon. These
downsloping winds will bring significant warming to the eastern
plains, where record high temperatures will be likely. It will be
unseasonably warm across the remainder of the region Monday.

An upper level trough will move across northern AZ on Tuesday and
across northern NM Tuesday night. This system will have limited
moisture, but light rain and snow showers are expected across
northern NM late Monday night into Tuesday. A moderate Pacific cold
front will cross NM during the day on Tuesday, and a backdoor cold
front will move into eastern NM Tuesday afternoon and evening. These
cold fronts will bring significant cooling to the region Tuesday, yet
highs will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Wednesday will be
dry and slightly milder, as a weak ridge of high pressure aloft
builds across the state.

Another backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM Wednesday night
into early Thursday with only a slight drop in temperatures and
continued dry weather expected for Thursday. Models diverge after
Thursday morning with the ECMWF showing a weak trough moving
northeast of NM into the plains, while the GFS shows a closed low
moving from southern UT to near the 4-Corners by Thursday evening.
The GFS solution would bring light to moderate precipitation to the
region Thursday night through Friday. For now, the forecast only
includes light precipitation across northern NM Thursday into
Thursday night, given the large difference in model solutions.

28

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper ridge continues to dominate with high altitude cirrus
streaming over. A lee-side sfc trough has brought warm downslope
breezy westerly winds across eastern NM this afternoon with highs
near record levels. A backdoor front will push south across the
eastern plains overnight into Saturday morning cooling temperatures
off. Despite the cool off, Saturday`s highs across the east will
remain several degrees above normal with near-record highs hanging
around for western NM. Pockets of fair-excellent vent-rates today,
fall to poor areawide Saturday and Sunday. Southerly return flow
warms the east Sunday, but not quite reaching near record levels. RH
recoveries Sun and Mon lower each day across the east as
temperatures trend back up.

Another round of near record temperatures arrives Monday ahead of an
approaching closed upper low. SW winds pickup across the west and
northeast where MinRHs will be dipping into the low teens setting up
critical fire conditions Monday. Vent-rates climb to excellent
Monday across the west ahead of the upper low, with fair lingering
across the east on Tuesday. Vent-rates fall to poor with pockets of
fair after the low passes the region for mid-week. The northern mtns
have the best chance for any wetting precipitation with snow atop
the higher peaks. Otherwise, central and southern NM look to remain
dry.

For mid-late next week, RH recoveries will be better with colder air
advecting into the region despite actual temperatures remaining
above avg. Models continue to disagree on the passage of the next
upper trough. The ECMWF is the fastest with a weaker trough clipping
the NE early Thu. The GFS holds back with a deeper upper low sagging
into NM Fri bringing a much better chance for wetting precip. The
forecast holds back on PoPs that far out until better model
consistency shows the increased precip. chances the GFS is
indicating this afternoon.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR through the TAF period. Occasional WNW gusts over the northern
mtns and adjacent central highlands this afternoon as a lee-side sfc
trough moves through northeast NM into the TX panhandle. Sct high
cirrus moving overhead around the upper ridge. A backdoor front will
bring a northerly wind shift to eastern locales Saturday morning with
some gusts up to 20kts at KROW with the frontal passage.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  63  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  25  61  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  31  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  23  68  23  72 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  20  67  20  70 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  26  67  25  71 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  33  68  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  42  78  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  23  57  23  62 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  40  61  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  34  62  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  28  56  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  28  50  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  21  55  21  59 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  23  60  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  31  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  36  65  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  38  59  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  35  62  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  40  68  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  40  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  36  68  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  39  67  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  30  68  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  39  67  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  39  71  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  38  64  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  36  63  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  28  67  29  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  35  62  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  37  66  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  42  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  39  69  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  31  60  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  29  61  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  32  63  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  33  62  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  36  61  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  33  58  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  41  64  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  38  65  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  38  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  41  65  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  42  65  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  41  64  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  45  68  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  46  66  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  44  65  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.