Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 301203 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND INTO EXTREME EASTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SCOUR OUT. KROW
AND KCVN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED. BY MID DAY OR AROUND
19Z...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS. LOOK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST
LOCATIONS THEREAFTER...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNTREND IN THE MONSOON WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM EAST TO WEST AND FUEL AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD EXASPERATE
MOIST CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL ALOFT WILL RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
AT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPT OF NC/NE AREAS DUE TO
THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LAYER RH FORECASTS DEFINITELY
POINT TOWARDS ATMOSPHERIC DRYING TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SOME MOISTENING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STORMS FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY AS IT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. A
REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/PWATS ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND HELP PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS WELL. EITHER WAY...MODELS
HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR AND UPTICK IN
CONVECTION LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THE NORTHERN
MTNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCH THE SW MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. STEERING FLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WEAK DURING
THIS PERIOD AND HELP TO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE MID
LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY/COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH AND GENERAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALSO DRAW
A BIT CLOSER TO THE STATE.

MODELS REMAIN BULLISH FOR LESS CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RISE
BECAUSE PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS PROJECTED TO TRANSLATE
OVER THE STATE. A DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS MAY ALSO WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE EAST. EITHER WAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND
FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AND RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY
THE COLD FRONTS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED
STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FLOODERS WILL
ALSO LOWER THUS LOWERING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MTNS
SHOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY IS STILL A WILDCARD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSION ACROSS THE NE THIRD WITH LASTING IMPACTS
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH FOR THAT SCENARIO BUT
TRIES TO DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...PWAT VALUES COULD VERY WELL BUMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND HELP FUEL A LITTLE STRONGER COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE MID LEVEL
HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND THIS MEANS VERY LIGHT TO ERRATIC STEERING FLOWS FOR THE
STORMS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PATTERN SHOULD QUICKLY RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE NOTABLY LESS
TODAY WITH CELLS INITIATING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WHERE MANY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS RISING...THE MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREACH CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A
FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TURNING TO MORE OF A
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL THEN TRANSLATE
SOUTHWARD INTO NM WEDNESDAY WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
STATE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HIT THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...HELPING STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER THE REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN
EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES.

MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER NM INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS EASTERLY FLOW...BUT A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENTER NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED RH GOING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...STORM COVERAGE STAYS PRONOUNCED DAY BY DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WETTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY.

BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF MORE DIRECTLY OVER NM. THIS MIGHT TEMPORARILY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE...BUT A GENTLE NUDGE TO THE EAST SEEMS TO BE ADVERTISED
WHICH WOULD START TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE VIA A SUBTROPICAL TAP
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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