Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 290934
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO
TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE
THE DRYLINE SEPARATING MOISTURE TO THE EAST FROM DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD TONIGHT...SPILLING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
MAKING IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CARRYING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH IT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO BEFORE DRIFTING TO ADJACENT LOWLANDS. AFTER HAVING BRIEFLY
REACHED CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...STEADILY REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH FEATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF NM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW REGIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN CO...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO NM.
THE DRYLINE SHARPENED UP SOME YESTERDAY...AND HAS NOW STOOD ITS
GROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITH THE CATALYST OF
THE FRONT COMING DOWN AND MERGING TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
WILL SPILL SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE 10 AM...DRAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ALL
OF THE NM PLAINS BEFORE NOON...AND A SECONDARY PUSH...POTENTIALLY
AIDED BY CONVECTION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY UNSTABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES IN EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL ZONES SUCH AS
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -9 C ADVERTISED BY THE NAM ALONG WITH ABOUT 3500 J/KG CAPE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT WHILE WESTERLIES PREVAIL ALOFT...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE STORMS.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST...AND POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER ALL
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND THIS COULD
HASTEN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING THIS TO FORECAST.
ALSO...A GAP/CANYON WIND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES AS THE
FRONT PLOWS WESTWARD TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN ON
SPEEDS...BUT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
ADVECTED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWATS JUMP UP TO 0.6 TO O.75 IN MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PLUS...THE ADDITION
OF SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST FACES OF THE DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD ALSO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT SATURDAY...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S FRONT.

UPSLOPE WOULD BEGIN TO FADE INTO SUNDAY WITH VEERING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...FIRST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE DRIFTING SOMEWHAT VARIABLY OVER LOWER ADJACENT TERRAIN.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS A 588 DECAMETER HIGH IS
ESTABLISHED OVER NM. POPS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS.

MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EASILY BE RECYCLED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS/STORMS. INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS BEING
INTRODUCED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BE SQUASHED FARTHER
SOUTH. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WORK IN AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SCOURING OUT MOISTURE WHILE THE DRYLINE
IS CARRIED TOWARD THE NM-TX BORDER. THIS DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY TOO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO NE NM THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
SLIDE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS BY MID DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE SANGRES SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDERS.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE. ACROSS THE WEST...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN THE RULE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM. HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SUB-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH THE
AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST.

THE FRONT WILL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE MAKING A RUN AT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THUS...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE AS COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CONTDVD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GET A BOOST
AS WELL...EXCEPT NEAR FARMINGTON...WHERE RHS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS SHOULD FIRST FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD STARTING TUESDAY BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A
DRIER AND PERHAPS BREEZIER PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP TUE/WED AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK....THOUGH WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WEST. VENT RATES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...WITH VERY GOOD OR EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED TUESDAY
THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

FOCUS FOR IMPACTS CONTINUES ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO
KTCC THRU 16Z FRI. CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE PULLED BACK ON DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL LEFT AN
INDICATION DURING PREDAWN TO SUNRISE HOURS. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE
SW OVER THE EAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
LEADING TO LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.
CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
VIRGA DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. POTENTIAL
MODERATE GAP WIND IN STORE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES WEST DURING THE EVENING. TSRA MAY BECOME A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF RAIN/TSRA FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  80  48  84  52 /   5   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  75  35  75  38 /  10  10  20  10
CUBA............................  77  42  77  45 /  10  20  30  20
GALLUP..........................  79  42  81  45 /  10  10   5   5
EL MORRO........................  78  42  78  45 /  20  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  79  43  78  45 /  10  20  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  80  44  79  47 /  10   5   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   5  10
CHAMA...........................  68  33  69  36 /  30  30  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  74  50  71  52 /  30  30  50  40
PECOS...........................  76  42  69  43 /  20  40  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  40  73  40 /  40  40  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  64  34  63  34 /  50  50  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  33  67  31 /  60  60  50  40
TAOS............................  75  39  73  41 /  30  40  20  20
MORA............................  73  41  66  41 /  60  60  50  40
ESPANOLA........................  81  44  78  47 /  20  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  78  47  75  48 /  20  30  30  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  80  49  77  50 /  10  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  81  55  78  57 /   5  10  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  83  58  80  60 /   5  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  85  52  81  54 /   5  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  53  81  55 /   5  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  86  53  83  54 /   5  10  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  82  54  80  56 /   5  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  87  55  84  54 /   5  10  10  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  48  75  49 /  10  30  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  80  51  77  51 /  10  20  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  46  73  45 /  10  30  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  46  69  48 /   5  40  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  50  75  49 /  10  20  30  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  52  78  51 /   5  30  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  78  42  69  45 /  10  60  50  50
CAPULIN.........................  72  44  70  46 /  50  60  20  30
RATON...........................  74  46  72  47 /  50  50  30  30
SPRINGER........................  77  51  73  52 /  50  60  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  75  45  67  45 /  30  50  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  75  49  71  52 /  50  60  20  20
ROY.............................  74  47  70  51 /  50  60  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  83  55  75  57 /  50  60  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  85  52  73  55 /  20  50  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  84  55  76  57 /  50  60  20  30
CLOVIS..........................  82  55  73  54 /  50  60  30  20
PORTALES........................  83  58  74  55 /  50  60  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  87  57  74  56 /  30  50  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  90  59  80  60 /  20  60  30  40
PICACHO.........................  87  55  75  53 /  20  60  30  40
ELK.............................  84  50  72  51 /  10  60  40  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.