Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 291134 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
434 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS...WITH A COUPLE
OF EXCEPTIONS. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO IFR AT KTCC AND KLVS...AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL IMPACT KSAF AND KABQ WITH
GUSTY WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR CIGS INTO
KSAF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING GROUP. AT KROW...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LAG
BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AND LIKELY WON`T IMPACT THE TERMINAL UNTIL
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...400 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY
AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
VIGOROUS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND WITH
COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED ALONG THE WRN NORTH AMERICAN COASTLINE THIS MORNING.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLOCK OVER THE
PACNW STARTING TO BECOME MORE DEFINITIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NERN
COLORADO AT 10Z. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS FRONT SWD
TO THE NM/CO LINE BY ABOUT SUNSET TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. STRONG
EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT INTO THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHALLOW ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ENTERS
THE PICTURE OVER THE SERN PLAINS TUESDAY WHERE IN-CLOUD ICE IS
LACKING. MODELS HOLD OFF ON VAST MAJORITY OF LIGHT SNOW UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND HELD OFF ON ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS A
RESULT. LIGHT SNOW THAT FALLS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER FAR NE NM AS THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THE SNOW WILL PREVENT MELTING. GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ELY UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT OVER SERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING EWD TOWARD NM LATE-DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/NEW YEAR`S EVE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
MAIN FRONTAL SNOW BAND WILL PUSH THROUGH WRN NM LATE NEW YEAR`S
EVE NIGHT AND NEW YEAR`S MORNING. WHAT THE UPPER LOW LACKS IN MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE MADE UP IN THE FORM OF MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEING FORCED UP
AND OVER THE COLD AND DENSE LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. WRAP AROUND SNOW A
GOOD BET THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW...NOW CENTERED
SOMEWHERE OVER SWRN NM...IS SLOW TO MOVE EWD.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL MAKE MAJOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS. NAM ALSO HINTING AT A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP THAT
COULD MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. WILL HAVE TO LET
FUTURE MODELS RUNS ATTEMPT TO SORT OUT THESE IMPORTANT DETAILS.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED-BAG OF POOR TO EXCELLENT TODAY...WITH THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOWING THE MOST IMPROVEMENT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...VENT RATES WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP BEHIND THE FRONT
AS TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.

A WETTING EVENT LOOKS TO BE SHAPING-UP FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW WOBBLES
EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
ON THE TIMING...BUT DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AT
144HRS. SO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHICH AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION...BUT MODERATE TO HIGH FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE ON A DRYING/WARMING TREND BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. VENT RATES WILL LIKELY BE POOR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW ON SATURDAY AND MAY EXTEND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SOME
IMPROVEMENT NEXT MONDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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