Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 292349
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
Complex aviation hazards exist during the next 24 hrs. The main
hazard will be due to strong to severe storms across the eastern
plains through the early to mid evening. VCTS at TCC/ROW through
02Z with a tempo group at TCC. Moisture to slosh back to the west
overnight with low cigs/ifr conditions developing at TCC and ROW.
Possible moisture could shift west to LVS but not enough
confidence to put in TAF.
.PREV DISCUSSION...408 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have erupted across the east
third or so of New Mexico, a few having been severe so far this
afternoon, and they will continue for some time into tonight.
The warming trend continues into Monday with daytime temperatures
reaching to near or slightly above normal for late May at most
locales. Outside of the east, mostly dry conditions with
afternoon breezes will remain the case though Monday, even most
of Tuesday. A fairly strong backdoor cold front will push
south and west across the area later Tuesday and Wednesday and
bring much needed moisture for showers and storms. Temperatures
will drop back below normal behind the front and stay there
through Thursday. A renewed warming trend is forecast for the
end of the work week and into the weekend with temperatures
rising back to near normal with lowering chances for rain.
The thunderstorm machine got going fairly early on in the east,
with several severe storms so far, and will continue into the
eve. Severe storm watch to be continued through 03z for good
portion of the east. Slow moving upper low vicinity of south
CA will take its time heading toward NM over the next several
days. West and central NM will stay on the dry slotted side of
with any convection there through Mon producing mostly gusty
winds and very little to no measurable precip. Portions of the
east though will be dealing with a dryline wafting back and
forth, westbound at night and eastbound daytime. Similar setup
for Mon thanks to a retreating dryline overnight tonight, tho
models are indicating storm initiation probably a little
farther east mon compared to today. Otherwise, warming trend
continues through Monday with temperatures rising to near or
slightly above normal at most locales.
Backdoor cold front is still shaping up to move south and west
across our area later Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong to
potentially severe storms are poss late Tue between the Sangres
and the TX/OK borders near and behind the front, and possibly out
ahead of the front across the east central plains as Gulf
moisture is pulled westward in the lower boundary layer depending
on the exact track of the of the upper low. The front will surge
westward through gaps in the central mtn chain late Tue night or
Wed morn with windy, maybe very windy, conditions a good bet in
the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Moisture advection
behind the front will be sufficient to aid in development of
wetting showers and storms Wed west to near the Continental
Divide. Temperatures will take a dip below normal behind the
front and pretty much hold there through Thu.
A healthy high amplitude upper ridge still expected by both the
12z GFS and ECMWF models to build over the Great Basin and
Desert SW late week then gradually shift east over the
central/southern Rockies and New Mexico through the weekend.
This will initiate a warming trend from late week through the
weekend with temps headed to near or slightly above normal for
early June. Sufficient moisture will remain for daily rounds of
storms Fri-Sun, more so higher terrain than the lowlands, but
wetting footprint should gradually decrease given a slow downturn
in moisture lvls.
TOPSY TURVY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND
VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOCALIZED WETTING RAIN DUE TO
THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE EAST. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE FROM EAST TO WEST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO LOWER. WETTING
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE ALTHOUGH AREAS BETWEEN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND AZ STATE LINE WILL EXPERIENCE A MIXTURE OF STORM
DRYNESS WITH MORE DRIER THAN WETTER ACTIVITY MIDWEEK.
A COUPLE OF WEATHER ENTITIES WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A CLOSED/CUT OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE DRYLINE OR MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SLOSH BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND CUT OFF
LOW WILL BE A VERY DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AS
ALOFT. RH RECOVERIES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POOR ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH HIGHER RECOVERIES ACROSS THE
EAST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOONS FROM A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING OR RETREATING DRYLINE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER BUT MAINLY
IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
WETTER STORMS WOULD BE FOUND ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE. Mixing
HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY BEING THE TRANSITION DAY. A
VIGOROUS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
DURING THE MORNING AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE SOUTH AND WESTWARD
DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRONGER GAP WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS INCLUDING IMPACTS TO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. HUMIDITY WILL GO ON THE RISE WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL.
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL IMPACT...A LITTLE MORE DRIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS DUE TO THE
UPPER LOW PLACEMENT. MODELS VARY ON THE COVERAGE AND LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS BUT IT IS SAME TO ASSUME DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
ACROSS THE WEST. THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY THUS GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS IS A CERTAINTY WITH THAT ACTIVITY. WETTING RAIN IS
HIGHLY LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL SURGE AND IMPACT THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE VERY HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
A COOLER AND HIGHER HUMIDITY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DRY TO WET BATTLE ZONE WILL
BE FOUND BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND AZ STATE LINE. WETTING
MOISTURE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
DRIER STORMS WOULD BE FOUND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. STRONGEST
WIND DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH WOULD RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF DRIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES
GRADUALLY LOWER. THE CURRENT ECMWF AND GFS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT
WITH THEIR PACIFIC LOW/UPPER RIDGE PLACEMENT BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL
HAVE ISSUES IN THE COMING DAYS. THUS...EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. IF THE RIDGE STAYS PUT THEN ANOTHER BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.