Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 201735
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING...JUST A
FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

MAIN/IMPACT WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. BMX MORNING SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A
BIT OF A HYBRID MICROBURST/WIND THREAT...NOT TOTALLY A WET
MICROBURST PROFILE NOR A DRY MICROBURST PROFILE. LACK OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING IS ALLOWING FOR MAXIMAL HEATING...SO REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND PLENTY OF CAPE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY. STEEP
LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A BIT OF A DRY LAYER ALOFT...AND
RELATIVELY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES ALL ARE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS.
PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY FAINT TAIL OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE AREA...FAIRLY DEEP WNW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ALSO MAKES THIS
SOMETHING OTHER THAN A TYPICAL WET MICROBURST SCENARIO.

BOTTOM LINE...AS PER HI-RES MODELS...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TSTMS
BEGIN POPPING UP AS WE APPROACH THE NOON HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE HINTING EARLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY N OF BHM AS WELL AS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF BHM...WHICH
IS CERTAINLY FEASIBLE.

GRIDS/PRODUCTS UPDATED AND SENT.

JD/02


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING/DETAILS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET...THEN TREND LIGHT FROM SW TO NW
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT W TO NW WINDS TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1110 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING...JUST A
FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

MAIN/IMPACT WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. BMX MORNING SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A
BIT OF A HYBRID MICROBURST/WIND THREAT...NOT TOTALLY A WET
MICROBURST PROFILE NOR A DRY MICROBURST PROFILE. LACK OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING IS ALLOWING FOR MAXIMAL HEATING...SO REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND PLENTY OF CAPE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY. STEEP
LOW AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A BIT OF A DRY LAYER ALOFT...AND
RELATIVELY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES ALL ARE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS.
PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY FAINT TAIL OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE AREA...FAIRLY DEEP WNW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ALSO MAKES THIS
SOMETHING OTHER THAN A TYPICAL WET MICROBURST SCENARIO.

BOTTOM LINE...AS PER HI-RES MODELS...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TSTMS
BEGIN POPPING UP AS WE APPROACH THE NOON HOUR MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE HINTING EARLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY N OF BHM AS WELL AS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF BHM...WHICH
IS CERTAINLY FEASIBLE.

GRIDS/PRODUCTS UPDATED AND SENT.

JD/02

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










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