000
FXUS64 KBMX 020010
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT IS GOING TO
TRY TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE AIR IS STILL PRETTY DRY SO THINK RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT A DECENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA IS POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH WITH THIS
AROUND MGM OR TOI.

THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT MONDAY BUT THEN WE ARE LEFT IN A WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFTING PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE ALLOWED TO WARM UP WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THURSDAY IS ALSO A TRANSITION DAY INTO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN THAT
COULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING IN THE GULF AND
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUT US UNDER
PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE PATTERN WILL
BRING NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE DEEP SOUTH. A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS COULD SPIN UP AND
BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
FRONT. THE BEST LOCATION FOR THIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-59. LOOK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ICY CONDITIONS NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS
UP AS SOME OF OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE CLOSE TO POTENTIAL
FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS POINT...I THINK IT REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR AREA BUT ITS CLOSE. WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT SOME RAIN TO BE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CEILINGS DOMINATE THE SKIES OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES IN THE MID LEVELS. THE CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 5K FT IN
A FEW HOURS FOR ALL THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. THERE IS MOST LIKELY
PLENTY OF VIRGA FALLING AS SOME WEAK RETURNS ARE INDICATED ON
LOCAL AREA RADARS. AS THE TOP DOWN MOISTENING CONTINUES...CEILINGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR 025-030 AFTER 06Z AND LAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RAIN AND GRADUAL MOISTENING IS BASED ON THE
IDEA OF RATHER LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. IF THE RAIN IS
HEAVIER...IT MAY KNOCK CEILINGS DOWN AND BIT AND PRODUCE SOME BR.
AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH P6SM -RA FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A LESSER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM AND
A VFR FORECAST..BUT CEILINGS MAY GET AS LOW AS 5K FT.

BEYOND THIS FORECAST...IT LOOKS LIKE A MESSY WEEK WITH A FEW
SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN AND RESTRICTIVE CEILING CHANCES.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     42  57  48  63  53 /  50  60  30  30  20
ANNISTON    45  58  49  66  56 /  40  50  30  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  47  60  52  67  58 /  50  60  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  47  63  53  69  58 /  50  60  30  30  20
CALERA      46  61  51  67  57 /  50  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      46  62  51  66  56 /  20  30  30  30  10
MONTGOMERY  46  67  51  73  57 /  20  20  30  30  10
TROY        45  68  51  73  57 /  10  10  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$