Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 260840
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF I-55 IN MISSISSIPPI.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND
HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DESPITE LOSING ITS
STRENGTH...THE MCS WILL STILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH OUT A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT
THAT WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND
EAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER...WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INFLOW...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST ALABAMA WILL
GREATLY HINDER SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS DOWNGRADED THE SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL FOR TODAY. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER
SOUTH GEORGIA THAT WILL ALSO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA TONIGHT AND
LIKELY KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59. AN UPPER
TROF WILL DIG INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES THURSDAY AND PRODUCE
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONVECTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE MORE DIURNAL WITH LESS AREAL
COVERAGE. THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN TROF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS EXITED EASTWARD AND THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE ORGANIZED AREA HAS DECREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH
A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND NEAR SURFACE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER OVER NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY DID NOT MENTION ATTM.

ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT
OF CLOUD COVER AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 08-12Z AREA WIDE. WENT WITH A
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR MENTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ALL
AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR BY 15Z.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A CHAOTIC DAY ONCE AGAIN. ADDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT THE NORTHERN SITES BETWEEN 16-18Z AND TEMPO FOR
THE SOUTHERN SITES AT 20Z. IT APPEARS THAT ALL AREAS WILL STAND A
VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. SOME OF THIS RAIN AND THUNDER MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BREIFLY AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30KTS. THE MESO
SCLAE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE...DETERMINING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  69  81  66  82 /  80  60  70  40  40
ANNISTON    82  69  80  66  81 /  80  60  70  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  82  70  81  68  82 /  80  50  70  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  82  69  84  68  85 /  80  50  60  30  40
CALERA      81  68  81  67  82 /  80  50  70  40  50
AUBURN      82  68  80  66  81 /  80  70  70  40  60
MONTGOMERY  85  70  83  68  84 /  80  60  70  30  60
TROY        85  68  83  67  83 /  80  60  70  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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