000
FXUS64 KBMX 171806
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
106 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Shower activity with a few thunderstorms have largely been
confined to the east of I-65 except for a few showers across
Dallas County. Expect activity associated with a west to east
oriented boundary across Macon/Russell County to continue to lift
north and affect portions of Lee/Tallapoosa/Chambers counties
through mid afternoon.

More uplift due to terrain continues to occur across our east and
northeast counties, portions of Talladega/Clay/Calhoun/Cleburne
Counties, and expect this activity to continue to persist and
drift northeast through mid afternoon.

Have adjusted hourly grids accordingly to reflect current and
short-term trends.

JH/05

Previous short-term discussion:Today and Tonight.

The main feature of interest this AM is that of an upper low over
Mississippi that has been digging southeastward toward the Alabama
Gulf Coast. This feature is evident with cyclonic motion on both
satellite and radar. With the upper feature expected to remain
across the Alabama Gulf Coast today and into tonight, we would
expect to see a north to south gradient in our rain chances with
the best chances in the southern counties of Central Alabama
closer to the low. The lower levels still promote onshore flow,
and so we have deep moisture continuing to stream into the state
through tonight with humid conditions remaining across the area.
Expect for the most part a diurnal nature to the activity with the
best chances during the heat of the day.

08

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

Scattered showers and storms on Sunday will be driven by daytime
heating and an upper-level weakness that will persist over the
region. The southern edge of a large-scale trough will reach the
forecast area on Monday along with the associated cold front. This
will further enhance convective activity along and head of the
front. As the front loses upper-level support, it will decrease in
forward speed as it moves southward across Alabama. Rain chances
will linger mainly across our South and East for Tuesday into
Wednesday as the front becomes ill-defined and dissipates.

For Thursday into Friday, models diverge on the handling of a
tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, but it seems possible
that moisture from the disturbance could get drawn northward and
lead to an increase in rain chances.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Already seeing several showers across east Central Alabama, both
in the higher elevations of the NE and in the SE in association
with a remnant MCV. Scattered showers/storms will persist thru
sunset, with the best chances in the south and east. Winds will
be out of the SW around 5-7 kts.

Convective coverage will decrease with loss of daytime heating,
but we could see some lingering and/or redeveloping activity in
the southeast part of the forecast area (near MGM/TOI) late
tonight. Models are hinting at low clouds or a mix of low
clouds/fog again overnight. Will go ahead and include some MVFR
cigs at all northern terminals near sunrise for now, but
confidence is rather low at this time.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and storms are expected through the next
several days with a moist airmass in place. The best chance of
rain will occur during the afternoon and early evening hours.
There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  70  85  67 /  20  40  40  70  50
Anniston    70  88  71  86  68 /  20  40  30  60  60
Birmingham  72  89  73  86  69 /  20  40  30  60  50
Tuscaloosa  72  90  73  88  70 /  20  40  30  60  40
Calera      71  88  72  86  70 /  20  40  30  60  50
Auburn      70  86  71  85  70 /  20  40  20  40  50
Montgomery  72  91  72  91  72 /  20  40  20  40  50
Troy        70  89  70  89  71 /  20  40  20  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$