000
FXUS64 KBMX 170021
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
721 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Thursday.

--Hot/muggy this afternoon with areas of storms, some lingering
 nighttime clouds + patchy fog; hot/muggy Thursday with spotty
 storms--

Surface high pressure-500mb ridging will be centered along the north-
central Gulf coast today through Thursday, as an upper trough moves
eastward through the Midwest states. Clockwise streamlines will
maintain an influx of Gulf moisture into central Alabama during the
period. Despite the proximity of the ridge center having some
suppressive influence, diurnally-forced convection is expected
through the remainder of this afternoon, and again on Thursday.

As of 18:30Z/1:30PM, ongoing convection along a west-to-east
oriented boundary in central Mississippi + another zone of activity
along the seabreeze has not moved much recently due to light deep-
layer flow. Ultimately, some outflow propagation into the
western/southwestern portions of the forecast area could yield a tad
higher chance of shower/storm activity as compared to the remainder
of central Alabama, but in all expect limited coverage. High-res
models continue to conclude a steady waning of activity just after
sunset, with some lingering clouds thereafter. Patchy fog/low
clouds may develop overnight- early Thursday morning. Spotty
showers and storms are forecast into the afternoon hours.

With mid 70s dew points and low-mid 90s air temperatures, some
areas (mainly the southwestern half, or so, of central Alabama) could
edge toward 105F this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon.

89^GSatterwhite

.LONG TERM...
Through next Wednesday.

A cold front stretches southward through the Mississippi River
Valley and slowly moves into the area by Friday. The front weakens
as it interacts with the ridging in place across Central AL. I
have kept slightly higher than normal rain chances in the forecast
for Friday afternoon due to the extra lift that is possible along
the frontal boundary, but will not go as far as to say
rain/storms will be widespread. Low-level ridging builds in behind
the front Saturday as the upper-level trough axis is still
overhead. Northerly flow starts to slide in across our northern
areas, keeping the higher PWATs across the southern and
southeastern counties. Therefore, have the best chances of rain
across the southern portions of Central AL Saturday and Sunday.

Ridging builds back in for the early part of next week as an upper-
level low retrogrades through the Gulf. Expect typical diurnal
thunderstorm activity Monday through Wednesday due to the lack of
any significant lifting mechanisms.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

In the short term, a boundary is bringing a semicircle broken line
of TSRA N/E across C AL. Part of this line could affect MGM/TOI
if it holds together. An area of convection behind the boundary
moving NE could affect TCL. Less certain of convection affecting
BHM/EET, a few showers may move close. Later tonight, will likely
see more low IFR/MVFR stratus in the late night hours and toward
morning as we are in a similar pattern. Winds are generally W/SW
across C AL around Gulf ridge.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially in the south
and west. Rain chances are lower on Thursday. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time due to the abundant moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  90  74  89  71 /  30  30  20  40  10
Anniston    74  91  75  90  73 /  30  30  20  40  20
Birmingham  76  92  76  91  74 /  30  30  20  40  10
Tuscaloosa  75  94  76  93  74 /  30  30  20  40  20
Calera      75  92  76  91  74 /  30  30  20  40  20
Auburn      74  90  75  90  74 /  20  30  20  50  20
Montgomery  76  94  76  93  76 /  30  30  20  50  20
Troy        73  93  75  93  74 /  30  30  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$