Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 112336
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
536 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

This Afternoon through Tuesday...Southwest winds have allowed
temperatures to warm into the 50s and 60s. Still seeing readings
cooler in a band across Central Alabama indicating all of the snow
has not melted just yet. The latest satellite imagery has a quick
moving trough headed east southeast from the Mid Mississippi
Valley region. This feature will allow a cold front to swing
through the state later tonight. Since this feature is moving
across tonight, it will mess with the radiational cooling and have
overnight lows at or above freezing area wide. Breezy and colder
conditions will prevail on Tuesday behind this cold front as
surface high pressure moves into the region. Highs will be in the
40s and 50s. Some clouds are possible behind the front by Tuesday
afternoon.

75

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday Night through Sunday.

Widespread mid to upper 20s are probable for lows on Wednesday
morning as winds become light near the surface ridge axis.

A moisture-starved front is expected to move through the region
on Thursday, and westerly low-level flow will be responsible for
afternoon highs 5-8 degrees warmer than the previous couple of
days. Forecast confidence decreases for Friday and the weekend due
to model disagreement and inconsistency. If the approaching
shortwave digs farther south and west as shown by the ECMWF, rain
chances would increase on Friday. Currently the best window of
opportunity for rain appears to be across the southern part of the
area due to the positive-tilt nature of the trough. Both the ECMWF
and GFS are in general agreement for Saturday, indicating a dry
day between weather systems. The next chance of rain may come on
Sunday, but models disagree on moisture availability and trough
amplification.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conds thru the period. A fast moving cold front will push
thru central Alabama between 09z and 15z. No pcpn expected with
fropa due to dry air mass aloft. Sfc winds will gradually veer
from southwest early in the period to northwest by 15z. A post-
frontal band of clouds with cigs arnd 3500 feet agl will impact
KBHM/KASN/KANB between 15z and 18z. Sfc winds beyond 15z will be
gusty with gusts up to 22 knots.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum relative humidity values mainly in the 30s this afternoon.
A cold front moves through late tonight, but humidities increase
slightly on Tuesday. Then they drop back into the 30s Wednesday.
Low dispersion values this afternoon improve Tuesday as winds
increase behind the cold front.

An up and down week is anticipated as another cold front moves
through on Thursday followed by another one on Sunday.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     33  47  25  48  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    35  48  24  48  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  38  49  28  50  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  38  51  29  53  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      36  49  27  51  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      39  51  28  48  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  38  54  28  52  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        40  55  30  52  35 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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