771
FXUS64 KBMX 220454
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1154 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet weather is set to continue for the next several days with
an abundance of relatively dry air through the column associated
with deep-layer ridging. Widespread high temperatures in the low
to mid 90s will continue with readings on the high end of model
guidance due to the ongoing drought.

Will introduce small rain chances in the southern and eastern
counties beginning on Sunday due to a modest increase in PWATs as
weak southeasterly flow develops. The general upward trend in
moisture and rain chances will continue into the upcoming week
with models indicating a large trough developing across the
Plains. This should cause low-level moisture advection as
southerly flow strengthens across the region. There is large
disagreement regarding the timing and evolution of the trough and
associated cold front, but a frontal passage seems probable around
Tuesday/Wednesday along with much higher rain chances.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions expected tonight and Thursday as high pressure
remains in control. Calm to light northeasterly winds are possible
overnight, with speeds remaining below 5kts. Sct to bkn mid level
cigs are possible overnight, but do not expect any lowering or fog
development. Renewed surface breezes (likely variable in direction)
and cumulus are forecast by Thursday midday.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier conditions will be in place through the end of the week,
with just isolated showers/storms returning on Sunday/Monday. A
front with better rain chances will come our way on Tuesday into
Wednesday. No fire weather concerns are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  92  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
Anniston    68  91  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  10   0
Birmingham  70  93  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  69  94  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10   0
Calera      69  92  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10   0
Auburn      70  90  69  90  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  71  94  70  93  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        69  92  68  91  68 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$