Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 280843
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE LAST 24
TO 48 HOURS WITH PWAT VALUES LIKELY RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40
PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A 500 MB WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTING OVER ALABAMA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS REGION IS EXPECTED
TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.

A FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SEE NO REASON TO
GO WITH ANYTHING LESS THAN 50 POPS FOR ALL AREAS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE AREA WHERE RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. THOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN JUST ENOUGH BY
CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO PREVENT HEAT INDICES FROM
REACHING 105 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINGERING CIRRUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
SURFACE HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     93  74  93  75  92 /  30  20  30  20  50
ANNISTON    93  73  93  74  93 /  30  20  40  20  50
BIRMINGHAM  94  75  94  76  93 /  30  20  50  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  96  74  96  76  95 /  30  20  50  30  50
CALERA      93  74  93  75  93 /  30  20  50  30  50
AUBURN      93  73  92  74  92 /  40  20  50  30  50
MONTGOMERY  96  75  96  76  96 /  40  20  50  30  50
TROY        95  73  96  74  94 /  40  20  50  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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