Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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926
FXUS64 KBMX 280855
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
355 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A weak stationary boundary stretches from west to east from the
U.S. 80/I-85 corridor in Alabama early this morning with a
generally clear KBMX radar this morning. Another front across the
Ohio River Valley will push southward across Kentucky and
Tennessee today and into Northern Alabama this evening. Some early
morning sunrise patchy fog is possible this morning especially in
valleys where rain fell yesterday.

During the day today, expecting shower and thunderstorm activity
to develop again, as an upper shortwave progresses across Central
Alabama and through the base of the Eastern CONUS trough,
especially in the vicinity of the lingering boundary. We are
looking at a rather cloudy day generally from the get go except
for the far southeast right now, but that area should fill in
during the morning. Expecting lower highs today, for most in the
80s. Although we could see a few strong storms in the south,
closer to the boundary today. Think that our instability will be
somewhat capped with our earlier precipitation start time and
extensive cloud cover. Shear will be low also. Some locally heavy
rain showers will be possible across the south, but widespread
flooding is not anticipated.

Our setup both north and south of the stationary boundary depicts
little variation in dew points, so we do not have any dry air
intrusion from the north just yet until our 2nd frontal system
arrives this evening. Then we should see some 60s dew points
filter southward into the state and help end rain chances across
the northern half of the area with only low chances remaining
across the south. The 2nd front is likely to stall across the
southern fringes of Central Alabama on Wednesday. Thursday into
Friday should remain dry for most with only low rain chances in
the south/southeast at times as the boundary meanders. Over the
weekend, rain chances will begin to move back northward across
more of the CWA as the boundary is expected to push back
northward and interact with another surface front that is
forecasted to move southward toward Alabama and increase rain
chances as we move into the weekend and into the beginning of
next week.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Most of the rain has dissipated for the night. The is a slight
chance for an isolated shower overnight, but not enough of a
chance to include in the TAFS. Did add in some low level IFR
ceilings after 9z at most sites. Going to be difficult in deciding
whether it will be low clouds and/or fog that will reduce the
conditions the most.

The main convection will be in the south tomorrow, but with
summertime convection only confident enough to add in VCTS at all
sites. The storms may last a little longer in the south than the
north.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances remain fairly high for today, especially across the
southern half of the state as a front moves southward across the
forecast area. Isolated shower/storm activity will remain possible
across the southeast on Wednesday, with drier and less humid
conditions expected across the North. No fire weather concerns are
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  67  90  64  90 /  40  10  10  10  10
Anniston    88  68  90  65  89 /  50  20  10  10  10
Birmingham  89  71  91  68  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  88  70  91  68  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
Calera      88  70  91  68  91 /  60  20  10  10  10
Auburn      88  71  90  70  90 /  70  40  20  10  20
Montgomery  90  72  92  70  94 /  70  40  30  20  20
Troy        90  71  89  70  93 /  70  40  30  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

08/16



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