Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KBMX 300840
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
340 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. FURTHER TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS IN PLACE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS CREATED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THIS WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LAST NIGHTS
00Z BMX SOUNDING ONLY INDICATED 1.39 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP BUT DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
REPORTS OF THE PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND YET. THIS WILL
CHANGE AS PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN ALABAMA TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH TODAY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE THE BEST JUST A BIT TO THE WEST ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE DRIER MID-LEVELS TO THE EAST AND
HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT SOME FOR TODAYS WEATHER. IN
ADDITION...HI-RES MODELS MODELS INDICATE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL CREATE 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20KTS OR SO. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES JUST TO
THE WEST. THEREFORE...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING.

THE LIFT MOVES TO THE NORTH RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BEST POPS THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME MODERATE
LIFT AND DECENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE DRY
AIR MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS LOW AND
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THEREFORE...HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MOVING INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE
OF A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RATHER
ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AND EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
SOME MVFR VIS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK FOR KTOI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD. CIRRUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE LESS IN
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AT LEAST VCTS IS ANTICIPATED
AT SOME POINT FOR ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     89  70  91  69  93 /  60  50  50  20  20
ANNISTON    89  72  91  71  93 /  60  50  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  89  73  92  73  94 /  60  50  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  91  73  92  72  95 /  70  50  40  20  20
CALERA      89  73  92  72  93 /  60  50  30  20  20
AUBURN      91  72  92  73  93 /  40  40  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  93  74  95  74  95 /  50  40  20  20  30
TROY        92  72  94  72  94 /  40  40  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.