000
FXUS64 KBMX 030530
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WERE ONCE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
COLDER...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO OUR NORTHWEST...NOW THEY
HAVE BEGUN A SLOW RETREAT AT LEAST AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE
PRECIPITATION.  THE FRONTAL RAINBAND AND CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  STILL MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WE STILL
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN OR COLD RAIN WITH THE
CHANCE OF SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.  WILL LEAVE THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE COLDER AIR.
HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE ON ELEVATED SURFACES THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT FREEZING BEFORE EVAPORATION TAKES HOLD...SO WILL LEAVE THE
ADVISORY AS IS.  AGAIN...MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
CONSIDERING THE WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER TODAY.  SOIL AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...BUT WILL BEGIN TO AGGRESSIVELY COOL
ONCE IT STARTS RAINING.  IT DOES BEAR WATCHING CLOSELY ESPECIALLY IN
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL HAVE TO STAY VIGILANT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT EXPECT THIS TO
CHANGE QUICKLY. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KTCL NEAR 08Z AND
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH KTOI AROUND 13Z. IFR CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION LAG AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE
ARE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT CONVECTION IS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO KTOI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RAIN
CLEARS...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
AFTER 20Z. WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY WITH
SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KTS.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: FAYETTE...LAMAR...MARION...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$