Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 270842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$







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