Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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647
FXUS64 KBMX 251744
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon satellite and obs show VFR conditions across the entire
CWA, with a few cumulus developing in the eastern GA/AL border and
the rest of the region observing small altocumulus. Any shower
activity seen on radar in Georgia has dissipated before crossing
over. Low precip chances are forecasted for the afternoon, but any
anomalous development that does occur, will remain isolated and
thunder free. Winds are expected to remain out of the southeast
until the evening, where the may become lighter and more southerly
in the early evening and more variable in the overnight hours.
Calm sky conditions are expected after sunset and will persist
through the night.

Public Discussion.

.LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...

Drier air due to easterly flow evident on this morning`s sounding,
and by lack of development across state this morning. Weak
convergence and activity in western GA moving westward will provide
opportunity for widely scattered to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly confined to areas east of interstate 65.
However, a couple of storms could develop over the western half of
the area during the mid to late afternoon. Temperatures and winds
are on track with previous forecast. Stefkovich

.EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...

The forecast remains on track with hot and humid conditions
continuing into the last week of July. Today will feature highs
again ranging from the low to mid 90`s with isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity.

For tomorrow and Wednesday...part of the deep south and the lower
mississippi valley region will be between two two ridge centers.
One will be located over the Four Corners region while the other
drifts just off the eastern seaboard. We will be much closer to
the western periphery of eastern ridge center tomorrow and
Wednesday and the latest guidance suppresses most of the diurnal
activity. High temperatures 90 to 96 and lows in the 70s.

For Thursday through the weekend, the weakness between the two
ridge centers becomes more pronounced with better chances for
scattered convection as we get into the weekend. The Euro remains
a little slower in opening up the gap but the general concept is
the same as the GFS. Temperatures are not going to fluctuate much
but perhaps a couple of degrees cooler if scattered showers/storms
develop early enough.

88

.AVIATION...


14

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days with highs in the 90s. Surface winds will be rather
light and generally from the southeast although some variability
will also exist. Since surface dew points are so high, critical
fire weather thresholds are not expected to be met with no watches
or warnings anticipated.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Afternoon satellite and obs show VFR conditions across the entire
CWA, with a few cumulus developing in the eastern GA/AL border and
the rest of the region observing small altocumulus. Any shower
activity seen on radar in Georgia has dissipated before crossing
over. Low precip chances are forecasted for the afternoon, but any
anomalous development that does occur, will remain isolated and
thunder free. Winds are expected to remain out of the southeast
until the evening, where the may become lighter and more southerly
in the early evening and more variable in the overnight hours.
Calm sky conditions are expected after sunset and will persist
through the night.


92

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days with highs in the 90s. Surface winds will be rather
light and generally from the southeast although some variability
will also exist. Since surface dew points are so high, critical
fire weather thresholds are not expected to be met with no watches
or warnings anticipated.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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