Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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