Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 270856
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EARLIER INDICATIONS SUPPORTED THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS HOLDING IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE LIKELY PROVIDED
JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP VISIBILITIES HIGHER. UNLESS CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF I-65. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH AND WARM LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO WANE ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND
WILL BE FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITH
TOTALS AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO
ALABAMA. A MODERATING TREND ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...SOME PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG. SOME TERMINALS...EET/MGM/TOI/ANB...ARE ALREADY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN MVFR/IFR VIS. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT OR WHETHER THEY WILL EVENTUALLY GO DOWN AND
STAY DOWN. RIGHT NOW...BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF TIME WHERE MOST SITES LEVEL OFF AT MVFR BEFORE SOME DROP
BACK DOWN TO IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE LOOK
FOR AMENDMENTS THRU THE NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  55  79  58  71 /   0   0  10  30  30
ANNISTON    84  56  79  60  73 /   0   0  10  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  84  59  80  61  72 /   0   0  10  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  86  59  81  61  73 /   0   0  10  30  40
CALERA      84  59  80  61  74 /   0   0  10  20  40
AUBURN      84  57  81  62  78 /   0   0  10  10  30
MONTGOMERY  86  58  83  63  79 /   0   0  10  10  40
TROY        86  56  82  62  80 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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