Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 190923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURPRISING AMOUNT OF RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT.
WELL...MAYBE NOT SO SURPRISING IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THE NAM`S
EARLIER FORECASTS. AND PERHAPS THAT WOULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY ON
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.

LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS LAST NIGHT IS NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE`S A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TCL AND BHM...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE NAM) SUGGESTS THAT ANY
RAIN AT ALL TODAY SHOULD BE OF LESS COVERAGE THAN ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-20 PERCENT) IN AREAWIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS WEST ALABAMA NEAR TCL.
WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATES. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCL LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND PROVIDE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ANB AND INCLUDED
VC WORDING BEGINNING 18Z. SOME CONVECTION COULD PUSH AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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