Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS64 KBMX 252047
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NICE WITH A FEW CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 FOR LOWS AND 80S FOR HIGHS.

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD AS THE FORWARD QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
NEBRASKA NEARS. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A
LOW NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS LINE TO SOUTHERN TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME
HEATING/AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S COMBINED WITH REGIONAL DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL OFFER A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A DAMPENING OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH H500 FLOW AROUND
40 KNOTS SHOULD STILL TRANSLATE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING...FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DECENT VEERING WITH HEIGHT...THOUGH SPEEDS CHANGE LITTLE
AND ARE NOT TOO STRONG. ON THE THERMO SIDE...CAPE PROFILES (WHICH
MAY OR MAY NOT BE SURFACE-BASED BY THE TIME DEEPER CONVECTION
ARRIVES) AND CURRENTLY-PROJECTED LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE OVERALL SETUP BECOMES MORE MARGINALIZED
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE. NOTHING WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO.

89

.LONG TERM...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ORIGINALLY BROUGHT THE SHOWERS IN OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING.

WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL
KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE AREA SATURDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY THAT COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR E/SE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY
TAFS ATTM. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE NEAR SUNRISE. THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HINTS AT SOME
LOW CIGS BRIEFLY MOVING INTO THE FAR S/SW...AND OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OTHER AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD RAIN CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  82  61  83  63 /  10  10  10  30  50
ANNISTON    60  82  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  62  83  64  83  66 /  10  10  10  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  61  84  64  83  66 /  10  10  10  30  50
CALERA      61  83  63  82  65 /  10  10  10  30  40
AUBURN      59  81  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  62  85  63  86  66 /  10  10  10  30  20
TROY        60  84  63  85  65 /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.