000
FXUS64 KBMX 172007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE STEADY RAINFALL WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FILL IN AROUND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...OR THE REMAINDER OF THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD.

TONIGHT...WEAKENING INTENSITY BUT SOME DECENT COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A SIMILAR SET UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER
EASTWARD.

A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE RAIN SHIELD AREA TOMORROW AND
SUNDAY WITH WARMER HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MID
SOUTH... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE STARTING AND ENDING TIMES FOR VCTS... NAMELY
PUSHING THE START TIME BACK A FEW HOURS FOR ANB... BHM... AND
EET. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A LATER ENDING TIME FOR VCTS AT SITES
WHERE IT IS INCLUDED. BOTH OF THESE DECISIONS WERE BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. KEPT MGM AND
TOI FREE FROM ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS BEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF BOTH SITES.

DID NOT INCLUDE A PREVAILING TSRA LINE FOR ANY TAF SITE YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE TSRA AS PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MISSISSIPPI AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A FUEL ALT PREVAILING LINE AT ALL SITES
GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN SHOWING THIS AND THE
FACT THAT THERE ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY IFR YET.

77/GLEASON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  79  63  83  63 /  90  60  60  60  10
ANNISTON    65  79  65  82  65 /  80  60  60  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  68  80  67  85  67 /  80  60  50  40  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  82  68  86  66 /  60  40  20  10  10
CALERA      66  80  66  84  66 /  60  50  40  30  10
AUBURN      66  80  66  84  67 /  40  50  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  65  83  67  87  66 /  30  40  30  20  10
TROY        64  82  65  87  66 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$