Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 150813
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
313 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Made quite a bit of change to forecast for the next 24 hours based
on the model consensus. A pre-frontal band of rain will try to
develop after 10am. Looks like the best coverage here for Central
Alabama will be across the southeast, but only isolated to scattered
coverage.

By 2pm, we will begin to see the front enter the northwest and then
slide southeast through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours.
Tried to time based on the consensus of the models as they are in
pretty good agreement. Best coverage through the sunset will be in
the northwest or generally along and west of the I-59 corridor,
including Tuscaloosa and Gadsden but remaining west of Birmingham
and Talladega. There still could be a brief isolated shower or
thunderstorm during the afternoon for Birmingham, Anniston, and
Talladega but chances will remain low.

After sunset, the front will continue to push south and east,
reaching the I-20 corridor in northeastern Alabama between 7 and
10pm. Eventually the front will reach the I-85 corridor right around
midnight. On this timing the front should push out of Central
Alabama by 6 to 7 am Monday morning. On average, the best coverage
will last for 3 to 4 hours at any given location and then quickly
subside after the front pushes through and the winds shift to the
northwest.

16

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Sunday.

A very different, more fall-like, weather pattern sets up for the
upcoming week for Central Alabama. We could see some lingering
showers early Monday morning down in the far southeastern
counties, but this should clear out by noon. Cool, northerly winds
behind the front shift more easterly Monday night into Tuesday as
the high pressure system moves off to our north and east.
Easterly flow continues the rest of the week as the cold air
damming pattern remains in place for the Mid-Atlantic States.
Expect continued dry weather through the weekend. Overall,
slightly cooler than normal temperatures for the first half of the
week, becoming more seasonable for the second half.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Made quite a bit of change to the TAF forecast for the next 24
hours based on the model consensus. A pre-frontal band of rain
will try to develop after 18Z. Looks like the best coverage here
for TAF sites will be across the south, so only mention SHRA VCTS
in here for MGM and TOI. Did include VCSH for all the northern
sites as there will be a chance through the afternoon for a brief
shower, but confidence is too low to include anything more during
this time frame.

After 23Z focus will shift the cold front and the timing of the
showers and storms ahead of it, as well as the wind shift and
speeds. Based on the consensus of the model timing will start the
SHRA VCTS at TCL at 23Z and then side the front to the east,
eventually impacting ANB by 1Z. Will shift the winds around to the
NW about 3 hours after the initial rain sets up. For MGM and TOI
started the rain associated with the front after 3Z and included a
prob30 for TSRA through the end of this TAF cycle. Winds will
shift right at 6Z for the southern sites and will include those in
the next set.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A front will bring an increase in moisture and rain chances for
today into Monday morning. There are no fire weather concerns.
Dry again on Tuesday and into the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  54  70  45  70 /  60  50   0   0   0
Anniston    83  58  70  47  71 /  40  50  10   0   0
Birmingham  84  56  69  50  72 /  50  50   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  56  73  49  75 /  30  40   0   0   0
Calera      85  59  71  51  72 /  40  50  10   0   0
Auburn      83  63  71  52  71 /  20  30  20   0   0
Montgomery  89  66  75  53  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
Troy        86  65  74  52  74 /  20  30  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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