Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 020532
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1132 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We currently have dry weather/clear skies under a dome of surface
high pressure over Louisiana. That ridge center is expected to
shift to over Alabama during tonight into Friday morning. Look for
a cool night tonight with clear skies and near calm winds. Friday
looks to be similar to today but maybe a couple of degrees milder.
During late Friday into Saturday, we will see a shift in the
overall pattern as the surface ridge center shifts to the Upper
Midwest and flattens some yielding easterly to slightly meager
east southeast onshore flow. Low level onshore flow will increase
as we head through the latter part of the weekend into Monday as
a surface low develops on the Texas coast and moves toward
Louisiana.

At the same time, in the upper levels on Saturday, an upper low
develops and digs into the SW U.S. and into Northern Mexico. This
will in turn shift our upper zonal flow to more southwest flow
regime and allow for shortwaves to commence being ejected from
the low and then across Alabama. Thus, we should see rain chances
return beginning in the west part of the state during the day
Saturday and spreading through the area to become more widespread
by Sunday. We remain in a wet pattern across the state into Monday
as the first low moves northeast across the Central U.S. and gets
absorbed into the upper flow. It will also aide in ushering the
surface low over Louisiana and a coastal front across the area on
Tuesday as the low moves to the northeast. Rain chances should be
lower on Tuesday as the upper system will have moved away but low
rain chances remain until the surface system moves across. At
this time, we do have a slight chance of thunderstorms mentioned
for Monday as dew points do increase with better gulf moisture and
some increased instability. The best instability looks to be
closer to the LA/MS coast.

By late Wednesday into Thursday, we will see another front
approach which will increase rain chances again for late Wednesday
into early Thursday and bringing another shot of cold air as we
head into next weekend.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A surface high pressure ridge is in control of our weather pattern
through the TAF forecast period with not only VFR but clear skies
expected. Winds will diminish this evening, with calm or light and
variable winds overnight. The ridge will shift eastward tomorrow
resulting in north to northeasterly winds Friday at 5-7kts.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through Friday with relative humidity
values falling into the lower 30s Friday afternoon. Widespread
showers will return to the area this weekend and remain in the
forecast for the first half of next week.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     30  59  35  55  42 /   0   0   0  30  80
Anniston    32  59  38  56  44 /   0   0   0  30  80
Birmingham  35  60  40  56  45 /   0   0   0  40  80
Tuscaloosa  33  62  40  56  45 /   0   0   0  50  80
Calera      34  61  40  57  45 /   0   0   0  40  80
Auburn      37  61  41  60  47 /   0   0   0  20  60
Montgomery  35  64  41  61  48 /   0   0   0  40  60
Troy        33  63  40  60  47 /   0   0   0  30  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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