Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 281948
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
248 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTH
EAST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE HEADWAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO EAST AND
NORTHEAST. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SAGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTH GULF
COULD INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF EAST OF
KENEDY COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL RGV TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST OR EAST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPS RANGE FROM 85 TO 90.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY LIGHT FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MID VALLEY ONCE AGAIN...EVEN WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE AREA DUE TO THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES WITH A FEW SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOR THIS PACKAGE THE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
THE CONSISTENCY ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST. EARLY IN THE LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF CONUS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHEAST BRIEFLY
THURSDAY AND QUICKLY RETURN TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A REINFORCING
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS AGAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD OF IT. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY FAVOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND GULF WATERS. RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE WEST
KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 60S BY SATURDAY
MORNING AFTER FRONT COMES THROUGH THE CWA. DRY AIR MOVES BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND WILL DIMINISH EVEN MORE THE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
NE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
THE PAC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY MONDAY AND PUSH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT TOWARDS TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP RETURN THE SE FLOW AND INCREASE
WINDS OVER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION AS IT WILL
INCREASE THE MID ND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO...DUE TO WAA WITH THE
SE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
80S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW
A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
STRENGTHENING AND BEING PULL NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER LOW TAKING A
NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY. THE MODELS SUGGESTS THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW
WILL SURGE NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY. LEFT INHERITED 25 TO 30
PERCENT POPS AS THE CONSISTENCY CONTINUES. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AROUND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LATE TUESDAY
AS THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS IS MAINTAINING THE ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND KEEPING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN
ABUNDANCE IN MOISTURE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF IS INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES...BUT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT... LIGHTER WINDS
AND LOWER SEAS WILL BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FROPA WILL BE VERY WEAK SO THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SE WINDS INCREASING CLOSE
TO SCA AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL DETERIORATE SEAS AS WELL AS THEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
CLOSER TO 6 TO 7 FEET. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SO THERE IS AN
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  85  71  84 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          68  86  69  84 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            65  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              68  87  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  89  68  87 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  85  73  81 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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