Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 211832 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
132 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL
COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW PLENTY OF
VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THE USUAL INVERSION WILL
REFORM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUES. THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSIST THROUGHOUT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS MIDWAY THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. THESE CLD DECKS
WILL BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED AS THE 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR NORTH EXITS
THE REGION ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. SO
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...MIDLEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
CROSS TEXAS...WITH WEAK IMPULSES DRIFTING THROUGH OUR REGION IN
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS HAS SPARKED A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH MORE BUILDING TO THE WEST. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...BEFORE H5 RIDGING BUILDS IN
LATER TONIGHT. LESSER CLOUD COVER THAN YESTERDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. TUESDAY THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MORE
SUPPRESSING...ENDING ANY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FURTHER INCREASE...APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
STRONGER 500 MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT. STRONG CAPPING AND LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT CAN NOT RULE THIS OUT COMPLETELY SO
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED SILENT POPS THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM TO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A DRY
LINE/SURFACE THROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY RESULTING IN VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST. THE MEX/ECX MOS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SO WILL ONLY
BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR NOW.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...WAVEHEIGHTS CONTINUE IN THE 2 TO 3
FOOT RANGE AS SOUTHEAST FLOW REMAINS LIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ANY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING THE SEAS TO
REMAIN MINIMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS MAY
SWEEP ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS TODAY...BUT WILL BE BRIEF.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST
TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM 1-3 FEET WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO 3-5 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  80  68  82 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          66  83  68  83 /  10  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            65  85  66  85 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              67  88  68  88 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  76  69  78 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ





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