Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 181142 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
542 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite and radar images as well as surface
observations indicate elevated convection continues to develop
along a stationary frontal boundary draped across the CWA early
this morning. Ceilings were near 300ft at KAPY to near 2300ft at
KBRO. Visibilities were near 2SM with fog at KHRL to near 5SM with
fog at KBKS. Expect IFR to LIFR conditions to prevail across the
Rio Grande valley and the northern ranchlands this morning as the
stationary frontal boundary across deep south Texas continues to
allow moisture to pool across the area. Ceilings and visibilities
will gradually improve this afternoon with elevated showers
diminishing. MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail across the CWA
this afternoon.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): 500mb low/trough across the
southwest United States/northern Mexico early this morning will
move eastward today. With low to mid level moisture across east
Texas...showers and thunderstorms...mainly elevated...will
continue to develop across portions of southeast and south-central
TX this morning before moving towards the Arklatex this
afternoon. This will provide scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across portions of the CWA this morning...mainly
along a stationary frontal boundary draped across south TX. Rain
chances will increase tonight into early Thurs morning as the
upper level trough moves eastward across northwest TX and the
stationary frontal boundary draped across the area provides a
focus for elevated convection along and north of the front. Drier
air will move into southwest TX Thurs morning and move eastward
Thurs afternoon as the 500mb shortwave trough moves across central
TX bringing an end to rain chances Thurs afternoon from west to
east across deep south TX.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): By sunrise Friday,
winds will have already flopped back to the southeast, bringing a
small amount of moisture northward. Models show a weak impulse
passing the region Friday morning, which may bring a very slight
chance for a shower through noon, mainly for the northern
Ranchlands. Saturday will see the region pinched between an
unusually-placed surface ridge to the southeast and quickly
advancing low pressure in West Texas. This will place Deep South
Texas in generally west to southwest flow at the surface. This is
a standard setup for quick-rising temperatures during the day.
Models have backed off of the extreme heat event reaching the
upper 90s, but are still coming in line with a lower to middle 90s
day areawide. These forecast highs would easily breaks the
records for the 21st, and might even threaten monthly records for
most locations. Saturday night into Sunday, the next major H5
trough comes roaring off the souther Rockies into north Texas and
Oklahoma. This will bring rapid and deep cyclogenesis in eastern
New Mexico, which will race eastward across the Texas Panhandle
and Oklahoma. With the wind direction from the northwest from the
surface to above H2, a tinder-crisp atmosphere through the entire
parcel, and a 120kt jet moving overhead Sunday morning, the
probability of a significant wind event is becoming more likely
for the entire day Sunday. Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning
would be needed for Sunday under these conditions. Strong ridging
follows behind the exiting storm system, leading to a tranquil
Monday as wind decrease significantly.

Today through Thursday: Seas were near 5 feet with south to
southeast winds near 8 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light
south to southwest winds will prevail across the coastal waters
today as a stationary frontal boundary across deep south Texas
moves towards the lower Texas coast this afternoon. Winds will be
light and variable across the lower Texas coast tonight as the
frontal boundary remains stationary across the lower TX coast. A
very weak cold front will move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico
Thursday providing a brief shift of winds to the northwest Thurs
morning before the front stalls.

Friday through Sunday: Modest winds and seas are forecast into the
first half of the weekend as winds remain south and southwesterly
around 10 knots, which seas remain steady around 3 feet. Massive
cold front barrels through the northwest Gulf Sunday morning,
bringing northwest winds of at least 30 knots in its wake. The
strongest winds are forecast to continue around the 30 knot
vicinity for near 18 hours Sunday afternoon and evening, which
will lead to seas 10 to 12 feet offshore into Monday morning. Gale
Warnings are likely for all of Sunday, with Small Craft Advisories
continuing into a significant portion of Monday.



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