


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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464 FXUS64 KBRO 111045 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 545 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Weak mid-level low pressure remains sandwiched along the lower Texas coast with high pressure across the Desert SW and eastern Gulf into this weekend. Current Saharan dust plume is expected to dissipate into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure holds across the Gulf, with low pressure across northern Mexico, maintaining moderate to gusty southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas, especially Friday and Saturday. Rain chances generally remain low, currently around 15 percent Friday and Saturday along the sea breeze, then below 10 percent Sunday and Monday. Drier air and another round of dust arrives next week, keeping rain chances below 10 percent. Expect seasonal temperatures gradually warming next week with humidity boosting the heat risk to moderate (level 2 of 4) across Deep South Texas into late next week. Skies may be hazy through Friday and again next week, with periods of degraded air quality for sensitive groups. Increasing swell periods and surf around 3 to 4 feet will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents late Friday through Wednesday across the lower Texas coastal beaches. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Through 12z Saturday....By and large, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire 24 hour 12z TAF period. There could be a few MVFR clouds around from time to time. An enhanced pressure gradient near the sfc will result in moderate to breezy southeasterly winds through the day today. Southeast winds 5-10 kts early this morning will strengthen later this morning/afternoon 15-20 kts with gusts as high as 25-30 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Surface high pressure generally holds across the Western Gulf with light to moderate southeasterly winds through the forecast period, maintaining seas of generally 2 to 4 feet into mid next week, with gradually improving marine conditions late next week. Small Craft Caution conditions are expected generally each afternoon across the bay and northern nearshore waters and may approach Small Craft Advisory criteria Friday and Saturday afternoons due to gusty winds. There remains a low chance of thunderstorms offshore through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 80 92 80 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 94 78 95 77 / 10 0 10 0 MCALLEN 96 80 96 80 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 77 97 78 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 87 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 78 91 79 / 10 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...23-Evbuoma