Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 270558 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1258 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies with light and variable winds
prevail across deep south Texas early this morning. VFR
conditions expected to continue for the next 24 hours. However, a
brief periods of mvfr ceilings may develop around sunrise or
during afternoon convection. Light winds overnight will gradually
become moderate across the area this afternoon. Convection is
expected along the seabreeze again later today but coverage will
be too isolated to mention at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...Convection near MFE will continue to dissipate over
the next hour and should not impact the terminal.
Otherwise...afternoon CU field slowly eroding this evening...with
Easterly winds becoming VRB overnight. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail...however a brief MVFR cig may develop. Convection is
expected along the seabreeze again on Saturday...however coverage
will be too isolated to mention in TAFS at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): A few seabreeze showers
are starting to pop up along the seabreeze, and are drifting off
to the southwest. WV imagery shows most moisture in the central
Gulf, being held away from the coast by a weak TUTT low overhead.
This has limited the areal coverage of the showers and will
continue through the rest of the day. This TUTT will slowly drift
to the east during the next 24 hours, continuing to shunt the
deepest moisture offshore. With no additional moisture moving into
the region, Saturday will be similar to today, with a slight
chance for a seabreeze showers after noon, while temperatures rise
again into the mid to upper 90s, with low 100s along the river
from MFE to APY.
Long Term (Sunday through Friday): Keeping an eye on AL99 near
the northeast coast of Cuba in the Atlantic, which could end up in
or nearly in the Northeast Gulf by Sunday. Significant development
is not expected over the next couple of days, but conditions could
become more favorable after that. For now, H5 ridging and surface
high pressure will retreat toward the mid Atlantic States now
through Saturday, leaving a weak mid level low over the Northwest
Gulf and a weak pressure gradient at the surface. The result will
be unsettled weather for the weekend and early next week. The mid
level low will drift toward the CWA on Sunday and is forecast to
be roughly over the CWA Sunday night into Monday. Rain chances
will increase to 40 to 60 percent Monday through Tuesday with the
mid level low in the area. The feature will continue inland over
Mexico later with local rain chances tapering off around mid
week. Forecast rain amounts currently range from a few tenths of
an inch up to around an inch for the period, though significant
variation may be possible due to slow movement and deeper
development. Partly cloudy skies will trend toward mostly cloudy
late in the weekend and early in the week, and temperatures will
be closer to normal.
Now through Saturday night: Light pressure gradient across the
gulf is bringing very light onshore flow, with winds no higher
than 10 knots. This is allowing seas to relax, and have been 2
feet or less for nearly 3 days now. This will continue into the
weekend, as winds remain light from the east 10 knots or less,
with seas under 2 feet area wide. Some shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to develop tonight and again tomorrow night
due to weak low pressure aloft.
Sunday through Wednesday...The surface pressure gradient will
remain weak in the long term, resulting in generally light winds
and low seas. An upper disturbance will move into the area Sunday
night and will help trigger a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night through Tuesday.
This product is also available on the web at: