Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 120510 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1110 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM WINDS.
HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL SITES
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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