Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 281910 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
210 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WILL
MAINTAIN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY INLAND LOW LEVEL CLD COVER MAY FORM UP
LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE MFE AIRPORT FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY WED
MORNING. SO SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE HERE AROUND MIDWAY
THROUGH THE TAF SET. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ESLEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE IMPROVE TO VFR IN BRO AND HRL. AS
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS...EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD
RIDGE IN PLACE. THIS WILL PUSH INLAND SAHARAN DUSTS AND RESULT IN
MORE HAZE CONCENTRATED IN THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
SLIGHTLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION DAYTIME MIXING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
850MB IS HELPING DEVELOP BKN LAYER AT AROUND THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
NEAR 1800FT. BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS VEERS
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT ON AN INCREASE OF SAHARA DUST ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND MAKING IT HAZE IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS. AS DAYTIME
MIXING BEGINS...THE INVERSION BREAKS AND THE HAZE BEGINS TO MIX
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIR QUALITY WILL BE MODERATE DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL HELP DEVELOP A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES OBSERVED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF HWY 77 FROM HRL TO RIO GRANDE
CITY COULD SEE BETWEEN 100 TO 106 DEGREES WHILE ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES NEAR 94 DEGREES IS EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN
AROUND 103 DEGREES ALONG THE RGV AND 101 TOWARDS THE WEST WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER. THIS DRY AIR HELPS MAINTAIN THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF WHAT
IT IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER
WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH VERY SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BUT MAINLY REMAIN IN THE GULF WATERS. MORE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH 100 TO 103 WEST
OF HWY 281 WHILE NEAR THE COAST REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL REMAINS IN A SEGMENT OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SPECIFICALLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A SPIKE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL COMBINE WITH ELONGATED 500 MB WEAKNESS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTLINE OF
TEXAS TO PRODUCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BUT AS FAR WEST AS THE HIGHWAY
281/INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...SCEC CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE GULF BUT WINDS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA TO COMMENCE OVER THE LAGUNA CLOSE TO 10 AM.
SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EITHER THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  94  80  94  80 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          94  79  95  80 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN           100  78  99  78 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN             101  81 101  79 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     104  79 103  78 /  10   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  81  87  81 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63



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