Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 262351 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOMING MORE MODERATE BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE THE 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE NE. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH NORTHEAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER VALLEY AND EASTERN RANCHLANDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED BUT A
FEW STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FOR
THURSDAY...WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WON`T FEEL QUITE SO
OPPRESSIVE WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING UNDER 105 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THOSE
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 BUT 20 FT WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE AND BELOW CRITERIA FOR ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
RETREAT WEST THEREAFTER HOWEVER AS H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE GULF. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING...AND
PERSISTING OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND POTENTIALLY PUSHING WEST
INTO THE MID VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW SEAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. LOW SEAS OF
THREE FEET OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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