Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 081744 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1144 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. MODERATE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNSET...AND
NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH CIRRUS OUT OF
NEIGHBORING MEXICO FINALLY ENDING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ON TUESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION JUST BEFORE
NOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN LIMITED TO DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY. THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...WITH L/V WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE
WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR MOST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...DUE TO
AMPLE CIRRUS SWEEPING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THICKER CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH CIRRUS MOISTURE SOUTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S. ANOTHER MILD
DAY IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO MIX TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TRENDS. DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN LARGE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST
AND A WARM RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS MAINTAINS A DRY NORTHWEST MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS SURFACE WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH BEGINNING THE INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP EASTERN TROUGH FRIDAY. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE FRONT BACKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN
GULF LATE FRIDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING INTO SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH FAR REMOVED AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVERHEAD THERE STILL REMAIN LIMITED FRONTAL FORCING. AS A RESULT
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO NIL WITH SOME APPREHENSION OF A
FEW SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. POP GUIDANCE REMAINS BELOW 20
PERCENT INLAND WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE GULF. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
RISING HUMIDITY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GO INTO
EFFECT MID-MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL RISE TO 20 KNOTS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE. NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED FOR
THE GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW. THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN THURSDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SETS
UP FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES
EXCEPT FOR ZAPATA FOR TODAY AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR AREAS WEST OF
US 77. THE ONLY ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS IF THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL WEAKEN BEFORE THE PEAK DRY AIR ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR...ALONG WITH
RAPIDLY CURING FINE FUELS...THE RISK FOR ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR
CONTINUES TO INCREASE EACH RAIN-FREE DAY. AFTER NOT ISSUING A RED
FLAG WARNING SINCE APRIL 2014...WFO BRO HAS NOW ISSUED 6 IN 2016.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ249>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.
&&

$$

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