Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 272316 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
616 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ABATE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A LESS BREEZY DAY IS FORECAST TOMORROW AS THE CORE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR AND
LARGELY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT
MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTH TX AND AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTH
TEXAS COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH SE WINDS REMAINING LIGHT BETWEEN 10 MPH OR
LESS WHILE REMAINING MODERATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REACH
THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STALLED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH TX THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.

INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST KEEPING A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
INTO TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE GUSTING AS MUCH COMPARED TO
WHAT WE AREA EXPERIENCING TODAY. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS STILL
SHOWING REALLY LOW VALUES ACROSS THE VALLEY SO THERE IS NO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE TO THE WEST ALONG THE RIVER WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S. MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE WEAK FRONT GETS CLOSER INTO THE AREA. THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ASSOC
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID TO LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD OUT WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. FOLLOW ON MID LEVEL TROUGHS AND ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT ALIVE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE LITTLE
RAIN FOR THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AROUND MID WEEK.

AS THE BOUNDARY NUDGES SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A FEW
MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER MARINE AREAS...BUT OVER LAND DRIER
AIR AND UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL HELP TEMPER AND THREAT OF RAIN. LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND WILL EVENTUALLY
REINFORCE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRY AIR. THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...UPSTREAM RIDGING AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS. ANY UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED OR MOVE INLAND OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE MAJOR MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY AND
SAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER TO EAST. SOME MOISTURE MAY
RETURN ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ALSO RETREATS EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE THOUGH POP CHANCES WILL STILL NOT INCREASE TO MORE THAN
SMALL AMOUNTS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN IN TERMS OF WHAT WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR LOCAL WX ELEMENTS.
THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE WITH FEW CHANGES NEEDED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. A MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR
COMPARISON AND USE IN MAKING MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUOY 2020 STILL SHOWING SCEC
CONDITIONS IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY INCREASE THE SE WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS. THE SEAS ARE BUILDING CLOSER TO 4 FEET AND EXPECT THE
BREEZE CONDITIONS TO BUILD SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SCEC CONDITIONS. THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA
IS VERY LIMITED SO THE CHANCES OF RAIN IS VERY LOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE
DAY...WITH WINDS SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SETTLE IN ON THURSDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND THE MODERATE WINDS WILL
VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WHILE MODERATE SEAS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  85  71  83 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          71  85  69  84 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            68  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              69  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  90  68  87 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  85  74  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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