Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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081
FXUS64 KBRO 301138 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BACKING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MOST DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY BE
AT MFE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO FORECAST WITH HAZE DOMINATING THE
VISIBILITY. TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT DISSIPATES. CEILINGS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN AT
MVFR LEVELS...AND LIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
THE TAFS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TODAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE BRO CWFA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE INTRUSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...A TREND THAT
WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT...AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
LARGELY PREVAILING...WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A BROAD 500MB TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE LATE MONDAY COLD FRONT. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE BEST LIFT/CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER /SPC/ HAS PLACED ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
6.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF
PADRE ISLAND UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING DUE TO ROUGH SWELLS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
UNTIL SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING IF THE ROUGH SWELLS PERSIST. MORE
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
LIKELY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND SHIFTS EAST.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155.
&&

$$

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