Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 291140
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
640 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...A mix of MVFR to IFR CIGS developed earlier in
the morning across the ranchlands and are moving with the
mid and upper level flow ridging aloft. Surface SE winds
will begin to strengthen this afternoon with gusty winds
expected. Expect mvfr to improve to vfr by mid day with a
SCT to BKN CU field. Winds will diminish tonight with high
CIGS returning due to debri clouds from thunderstorms.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Upper level low entering the
CA coast weakens early in the short term aiding a zonal flow
across S Texas. A few perturbations within the flow in addition to
an inc in low level moisture will enhance ISO to SCT showers and
thunderstorms along and E of the Sierra Madre Mountains. Most of
the convection will remain West of the International border but
can not ruled out a storm making it into the western counties this
afternoon. The surface pressure gradient strengthens this
afternoon as weak trough digs South across the Desert Southwest.
Expect SE wind increasing by the afternoon hours to breezy
conditions with a mix of sun and clouds across the CWA. Heights
rising with 850MB temps above 19C will keep temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s across the area and lower 90s near the coast.
Heat index climb into the 102 to 105 range for much of the area.
Sunday night into Monday, upper flow becomes slightly diffluent
aloft with a few weak disturbances in the mid-level flow. This will
enhance another round of convection along the dry line E of the
Sierra Madre late Sunday into Mon. Kept the 20 percent mainly for the
Western portion of the CWA. Models are depicting MCS developing over
S Central TX which could produce convective outflow boundary
reaching the western counties of the CWA.
LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): The 500mb ridge
across the the state Monday will flatten out and move eastward
Tuesday as a 500mb low/trough across Arizona meanders across the
southwest United States and a 500mb trough deepens across the
northern plains. The global models prog convection developing
across portions of north and south Texas Tuesday as low to mid
level moisture remains high across most of the state. The upper
level trough across the north-central U.S. is expected to deepen
and move eastward Wednesday bringing a weak cold front through
north TX. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead
of this frontal boundary as it continues to move southward into
south TX Thursday as moisture continues to pool along the front.
Rain chances will increase across south TX Wed. night into
Thursday as the front moves into deep south TX Thursday. The
positive-tilted 500mb trough across the state Thursday is progged
to cut-off and linger across south TX through the rest of the
forecast period. There are some differences in the location of
this feature Friday and Saturday. With the CWA on the western
periphery of the upper level low...a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms is warranted across the coastal sections
through the rest of the week into the weekend as low to mid level
moisture wraps around the western periphery of the 500mb low.
Now through Monday...Surface high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will strengthen keeping a SE flow across the Gulf waters
through the short term but seas remain moderate. The SE winds will
prevail through the period with SCEC today mainly in the Laguna
Madre and seas remaining around 2 to 4 feet. The Southeast winds
will weaken overnight and remain moderate into Monday.
Monday night through Thursday...Moderate southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Monday night before increasing
slightly on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases slightly
along the lower Texas coast. Moderate to strong southeast winds
Tuesday will continue Wednesday before the pressure gradient
weakens across the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night into
Thursday as a weak cold front moves into south Texas. Light to
moderate southeast winds should prevail across the coastal waters
Wed. night into Thursday as a result.
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ251-256-257.
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