Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 282003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
303 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): To say the least it is
hot once again across the CWA with the Heat Advisory working out
well with temperatures and dew points peaking out ahead of a weak
cold front approaching South Central Texas. The front is expected
to pull up stationary tonight remaining north of Deep South Texas.
Ingredients remain in place or will be in place for a potential
widespread rain event commencing later tonight and persisting
through Monday evening. Convection is expected to fire over the
Sierra Madre this evening and track east-southeast while tapping
into high instability and combining with increasing upper
divergence as an upper jet max 100kt dips southward. In addition
Hi-Res models indicate moisture convergence along the front
initiating another potential cluster of thunderstorms over South
Central Texas and along the Coastal Bend tracking south into Deep
South Texas. In a nut shell, most if not all models including the
Hi-res solutions all indicate substantial pockets of convection,
some heavy, impacting the region the next 12-36 hours. QPF values
continue to range 2-3+ inches but pockets of heavier rainfall is
possible. We remain in a marginal risk for flash flooding but the
ground will be able to take in a lot of water due to the recent
dry spell. However the more persistent heavier thunderstorms will
be capable of producing torrential downpours with our pwats
expected to increase near 2.25+ inches which is above the 90
percentile. As for severe thunderstorms SPC keep our region in a
Marginal outlook with high instability due to the excessive heat
and dew points but weak shear may inhibit substantial severe
thunderstorms. As has been mentioned can not rule out an isolated
storm that would produce one inch hail and winds in excess of 50
mph. Temperatures will be our least worrisome weather element as
they will trend slightly below normal with the increased cloud
cover and rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): A 500mb trough across
northwest Tuesday and Wednesday moving eastward across west Texas
and northern Mexico Thursday will continued to provide unsettled
weather across portions of south Texas through the rest of the
week as low to mid level moisture remains high across the area and
across the western Gulf of Mexico. Some drier air is expected to
move into the Rio Grande valley and the northern ranchlands
towards the end of the week into the weekend. Will keep a chance
of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday before rain
chances diminish Friday into Saturday.

.MARINE (Now through Monday night): Conditions at Buoy 42020 at 2 pm
show southeast winds at around 12 knots and seas around 4 feet.
Pressure gradient to remain relaxed as a weak cold front over South
Central Texas becomes stationary tonight just north of the Lower
Texas Coastal waters. A light to occasionally moderate southeast to
east wind and slight seas to persist through Monday night.  Showers
and thunderstorms develop sometime tonight possible becoming
widespread Monday morning and into the afternoon.  Some of the
storms will produce heavy rain, gusty winds and occasional

Tuesday through Friday...Light east to southeast  winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Tuesday with surface high
pressure across the southeast United States and low pressure
across west Texas. The pressure gradient will increase slightly
across the lower TX coast Wednesday. Moderate east to southeast
winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and
Thursday before the pressure gradient weakens Friday. Light to
moderate south to southeast winds are expected to prevail across
the lower TX coast Friday.

BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  86  75  86 /  30  70  60  50
BROWNSVILLE          81  88  75  88 /  30  70  60  50
HARLINGEN            78  87  72  89 /  30  70  60  50
MCALLEN              80  89  75  90 /  40  70  70  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  86  72  90 /  40  70  70  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  82  77  84 /  30  70  60  50

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ252>255.



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