Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 041737 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1137 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST /18Z/ AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FRESH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS STILL KICKING NICELY IN
THE KHRL/KBRO AREA AND WITH RIDGE AXIS STILL ALONG/WEST OF THE
COAST EXPECT GUSTINESS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS QUICKLY COLLAPSE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING SAGS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TX COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLEAR SKIES QUICKLY FILL WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS BY 9 AM FRIDAY AND
SHOULD SPREAD TO KMFE BY NOON. STILL...WITH NO MORNING FOG AND THE
HIGHER BASED CLOUDS SITUATION REMAINS FAIR FOR MOST GENERAL
AVIATION LANDINGS AND TAKEOFFS VALLEYWIDE.
60/52



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AFOREMENTIONED GUSTY WINDS IN THE AVIATION
SECTION ABOVE SHOULD RETREAT TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 WHERE
FINE FUELS REMAIN RELATIVELY MOISTU COMPARED WITH LOCATIONS UP THE
VALLEY AND TOWARD THE RANCHLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLACKENING WINDS FROM LA FERIA THROUGH
SANTA ROSA...LINN/SAN MANUEL...AND FALFURRIAS WEST SHOULD KEEP
RAPID GROWTH RATES IN CHECK. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DRYING
FACTOR AND PROBABLY REACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM IN
THESE AREAS...SO CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY VEHICLES/TRACTORS IN
HIGHER GRASS AND GENERALLY NOT RECOMMENDED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TO REINFORCE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EASES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY EVEN WITH ANOTHER FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO MODERATE SPEEDS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGES EDGES SOUTH BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DROP OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS SPREADING
ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A CHILLY NIGHT AS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO MID 30S NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE RGV
FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO TRACK
EAST FRIDAY AS THE QUICK PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SURFACE WINDS TURN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND GULF MOIST INCREASE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE DEPTH NOT EXCEEDING
5000 FEET AND DEW POINTS MAYBE RECOVERING TO 50 DEGREES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTH TEXAS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON ANY
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FLUX OR LIFT NEEDED FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
MIGHT IMPACT THE MAX TEMPERATURES BY KEEPING THEM FROM ACHIEVING
FORECAST HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...EXTENDED FORECAST
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE GENERALLY DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE NEXT H5
TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING WITH IT. MINIMAL RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MINIMIZE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS AND THE GULF WATERS. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...BUILDING INTO A LARGESCALE TROUGH. DEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING ELEVATION OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS TODAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT
SPREADING EAST FRIDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATELY
STRONG LEVELS MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE GULF WATERS TODAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE
LAGUNA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE STEADILY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS BUT HIGHER SEAS MAY TAKE LONGER TO RELAX. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA UNTIL 10PM TO COVER FOR THE LINGERING SEAS. WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOW A LOWERING TREND AS THE
RIDGE TRACKS EAST FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NW GULF
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY FOR
THIS REASON. WINDS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...LEADING TO
LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK REINFORCING COLD
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AT THAT TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER DEW POINTS WORKS ITS WAY INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY HOWEVER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ELEVATE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWERS BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 69E AND 20-30 PERCENT EAST. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WEST ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE REGION.


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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