Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 301732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH FOR KHRL...STILL THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF KBRO AND KMFE. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST SATELLITE AND
WATER VAPOR OBSERVATIONS SHOW RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND DEEPENS
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA
GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY AND UNDERNEATH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEPICTED OVER THE AREA WITH 00Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED UP TO 800 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY REACH 1.72
INCHES AND THAT IS DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF 8Z...RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FAVORING NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND EASTERN HIDALGO AND
CAMERON AND IT IS MAINLY RAP RAP AROUND THE WEAK LOW/MCV. THE CONVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INTO
BROOKS COUNTY BY MID DAY AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND BEFORE
IT GETS TAKEN BY THE MID TO UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS LATE
TODAY INTO WED. LEFT INHERITED 10 PERCENT AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CLOSE TO 90S ALONG
THE RIVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. TONIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER
THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LEAN TOWARDS 10 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT RETURNING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA ALLOWING FOR THAT WEAK LOW TO DISSIPATE. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOW AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AS DRY AIR GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. TODAY DUE TO THE LIGHT TO
VARIABLE WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE LINGERING AROUND THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE
MORNING HOUR.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THURS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RGV FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
STALLS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIAPAS.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EAST TX
SATURDAY MOVES EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS THE WEAK LOW KEEPS SPINNING OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 10 T 15 KNOTS.  THIS LOW IS HELPING
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AND DO EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND IMPROVE WEDNESDAY. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SCA BUT A SCEC IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRI
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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