Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 212006
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
306 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DEEP SOUTH TX
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY. THE
FIRST BEING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA
AND THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW
ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COVERAGE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONV
HAS ALSO BEEN HELPED ALONG BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO JUSTIFY SOME MENTION OF CONV THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER ON WED TO EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE
CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF THE THREE MODEL SETS WITH THE MAV AND
MET COMING IN WITH LOWER POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV/MET BLEND LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED AND WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE MID SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURE THIS FAR SOUTH
THAT WILL SPARK ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS FURTHER LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST FRIDAY
WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TREK EASTWARD AS WELL WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST SOILS...AM RELUCTANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER ON TEMPERATURES DESPITE A FEW MODELS WARMER THAN MY
FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY REGARDING PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS IS WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER. WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING BUT ADD SILENT 10S TO THE AREA BASED ON THE WETTER ECMWF
SOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 HAS BEEN HOLDING
CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM 15G20KTS
WITH SWELLS FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. THE TIGHT PGF PERSISTING DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT FETCH OF ELEVATED GULF SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. FOR NOW EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
THROUGHOUT WED. SOME BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
GULF CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WILL POST A CFW TO CAUTION FOLKS OF THE
POTENTIAL OF BEACH RUNUP DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED AND NO SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  73  86 /  30  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          72  85  71  86 /  40  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            71  86  70  87 /  30  30  20  10
MCALLEN              70  87  70  88 /  40  30  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  87  68  87 /  40  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  83  75  84 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ





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