Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250617 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
117 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE AREA
MAY ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND
SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A TEMPO FOR BR FROM 10-14Z
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A S/W TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. THE END WILL
RESULT WILL BE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PATCHY FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENCE BETWEEN THE
MET AND MAV AND JUST BLENDED THESE TWO INTO THE GOING FORECAST.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STRONG 500 MB RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ON SUNDAY BUT WILL START TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIG
SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL DROP A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO CENTRAL TX BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL TO OUR NORTH AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURS.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL MIDWEST LATE
THURS INTO FRIDAY WHICH MAY PUSH A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS KEEP
PRETTY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY SLGT CHC POPS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGHS GET CLOSER TO THE REGION.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH DAY 7 AND ALSO AGREE IN
THE LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES NEXT WEEK. WILL GO NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE MEX TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK AS WAA WILL BE PRETTY
STRONG OVER THE REGION AND SUNSHINE WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD.
WILL GO CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TREND IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3.3 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND NO
SCEC OR SCA EXPECTED AS WELL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT SURFACE TROFFING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG PGF OVER THE
LOWER TX COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE A STRONG
S-SE SURFACE FLOW WHICH COULD PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS UP CLOSE
TO SCA LEVELS LATE IN THE CWF PERIOD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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