Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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982
FXUS64 KBRO 050545
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
RGV OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE S-SE AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER TX SLIDES
EASTWARDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...00 MB AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGV THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE 500 MB
RIDGING WILL STEADILY BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DUE
TO DUAL CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD AND NEAR ZERO POPS WILL PREVAIL. THE
SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARDS THROUGH THURS WHICH WILL
ALLOW A RETURN OF A S-SE WARMER LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK UP TO ABOVE
CLIMO.

THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOW PICKING UP ON
THE WARMUP WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING SHOWING A LITTLE WARMER
TEMPS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS. WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF TEMPS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BENIGN WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
BLOCK BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN RESPONSE. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
TO SNEAK IN TO THE CWA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS. PLUS...STRONG CAPPING AND MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER REDUCES CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PGF WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND THURS. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD EXPECT THE SURFACE FLOW TO
SHIFT AROUND MORE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION HEADING INTO THURS
NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH FAIRLY
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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