Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 202008
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
308 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night): The broad mid-level
high pressure area over Texas remains intact while a weak upper
level (300mb)shortwave, evident in water vapor loops over Coahuila
Mexico, moves across South central Texas Thursday. This may allow
for a few more showers or a thunderstorm to develop with possible
enhancement along the seabreeze. Moisture values remain high,
pwats 2"+, and GFS/ECMWF shows slightly deeper moisture as the
shortwave passes nearby. GFS guidance continues to be on the low
side of consensus with ECMWF on the high end. will continue to
show a blend of the model output. Any of thunderstorms that do
develop could produce heavy rainfall. Temperatures will continue
to be above normal with warm muggy nights in the mid to upper 70
and daytime highs in the 90`s to lower 100s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): By the end of the week, the
pattern will include a deep 500mb trough digging into the
Southwest U.S. with broad ridging east of the Great Plains and
over the Midwest. Models continue to indicate a mid-level low
developing over the central Gulf this weekend, but we will remain
in general ridging with strong subsidence and dry air aloft. As
we move into next week the trough is expected to move a little bit
closer into West Texas with deeper tropical moisture moving
northward into our area, so precipitation chances may increase
Tuesday through Thursday if any impulses can move overhead.
Decided to make only little changes to the forecast and have kept
20-30% PoPs each day due to model discrepancies towards the latter
half of the forecast next week. Temperatures will remain above
normal through this weekend with near-normal temperatures next
week.

&&

.MARINE (Tonight through Thursday night): Light to moderate winds
and low sea regime is expected to persist through Thursday night
with weak high pressure interacting with lower pressure over NW
Texas.

Friday through Wednesday: Light to moderate southeast winds will
likely continue for much of the long term period with low seas of
2 to 4 feet as high surface high pressure remains over the
northern Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  94  78  92 /  20  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  77  93 /  20  30  20  20
HARLINGEN            78  96  76  96 /  10  30  20  20
MCALLEN              80 100  79  99 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  77  99 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  80  88 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...59
Long Term...65


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