Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251056 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
431 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING
TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL
DIG ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK RETURN OF WAA AND REBOUNDING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL GENERATE UP A PRETTY
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH BREEZIER CONDITIONS FROM TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW.

THE MAV/MET AND ECS TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY IS IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR BOTH MAXES AND MINS. WILL GO WITH A OVERALL BLEND OF
THE THREE MODEL SETS FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MOISTURE RETURN COMING
BACK THROUGH FRIDAY WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ANY MENTION
OF POPS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
REGION SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH TO WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS AROUND NOON...ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER VALLEY AROUND
SUNSET AND WELL OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S...EXCEPT
UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
OVERRUNNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE MID 50S ACROSS NEAR
THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 50S
COURTESY OF INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES ENDING AND CLEARING SKIES. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...EXCEPT ALONG THE BEACHES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SINK SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEW YEAR`S EVE LOOKS TO BE BREEZY...RATHER CHILLY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MARINE AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF
THE RETURNING S-SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. THE
PGF MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI TO POSSIBLY PUSH
THE BAY AND GULF MARINE CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  61  75  67 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          71  61  76  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            71  60  78  66 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              71  59  78  65 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  54  78  62 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  64  74  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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