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000
FXUS64 KBRO 041129
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
529 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST OVER CAMERON COUNTY
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THROUGH 7 AM.
AN AWW IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTING KBRO. WEATHER
PATTERN IMPROVES FOR TODAY AS NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY LOWER WITH
MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT LIGHT NORTH
WINDS PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 1200 TO
900 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF TEXAS ENHANCING
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
INTO THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOWER VALLEY BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
CLEARING MID DAY AND MOVING INTO THE GULF. DRY AIR WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE N WINDS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL IN THE MID 20S THROUGH MID
MORNING SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
WEST AND MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD VEERING WINDS TO EAST AT THE
SURFACE. RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE FILTERING IN DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE WILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 70S OUT WEST AND MID
TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER
THE GULF WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL SWING EASTWARD
THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY
THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY BEFORE A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
FRIDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
RESULT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
U.S./NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY MEANDERING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT BECOMING ELEVATED SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
BLEND BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECX MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUE WITH CONSALL MOS FOR POPS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY
MOVING EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE TROUGH  MOVES EASTWARD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH OUT THE DAY ALLOWING
THE SCA CONDITIONS TO EXPIRED. THE SCA STILL IN EFFECT AS SEAS
REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST AND EXIST THE GULF WATERS...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
DIMINISHES AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASING THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THURS MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
THURSDAY WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT EAST WINDS FRIDAY WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ253>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

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