Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 281145 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  63  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              84  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  60  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  68  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58



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