Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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554
FXUS64 KBRO 050513 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1113 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDSRETURNING LATER FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND
LOWLEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. CEILINGS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
VFRRANGE WITH SCT-BKN TO POSSIBLE OVC CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
MIDDAYOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING
EASTSOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURNING MID FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO EAST SOUTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE. VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY MID FRI AND
SHOULD STAY VFR...OR HIGH MVFR AT WORST. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE 500 MB TROFFING OVER TX
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE TX COASTLINE TONIGHT AND FRI. AT THE SURFACE THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO SLIDE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PGF TO WEAKEN
STEADILY OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST EXPECT THE WAA TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO
MODERATE STEADILY. ALL THREE SHORT TERM MODEL SETS APPEAR TO BE TOO
SLOW IN PICKING UP THE WAA. WILL GO A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER 500 MB SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TX FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ON THE RETURNING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO ALLOW SOME DECENT CLD COVER TO REFORM. THE
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE TOO SHALLOW AT THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY ANY
MENTION OF POPS. ALSO THE IMPACT OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO PROVIDE THE RGV WITH ANY DECENT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ON THE WHOLE IT REALLY
DOESN`T GET ANY BETTER FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WHEN IT COMES TO THE
COMBINATION OF GENERALLY SUNNY DAYS...FAIR CRISP NIGHTS...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND ONLY A FEW DAYS WITH FRESH WINDS.  IF YOU LIKE YOUR
WINDOWS OPEN DAY AND NIGHT..."GOOD" HAIR DAYS...AND WEATHER THAT
MAKES YOU FEEL GREAT...WE`VE GOT YOUR TONIC.

THE BIG PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME:  QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDES
WHIPS FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH EAST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY AND
SCOOTS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROADER AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND SETS UP CAMP ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE LOOSENING ITS GRIP NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH IS
DEEP AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT NEARLY EVERY LEVEL...WHICH LOCKS
IN THE DRY AIR.  A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
MEXICO MONDAY WILL HAVE NO SHOT AT STRETCHING NORTHWARD...BLOCKED BY
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE NEAREST RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY FROM
TAMPICO SOUTHWARD.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THREE WIND SHIFTS WILL OCCUR AS IMPULSES
SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. FIRST WELL-ADVERTISED ONE IS
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY TURNING NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.  THE
SECOND ARRIVES ON MONDAY...AND WEAKENS BEFORE BEING SLIGHTLY
REINFORCED TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS FINALLY GO
BACK TOWARD THE MORE FAMILIAR SOUTHERLY BUT AT RELATIVELY TAME
SPEEDS...WITH SOME PICKUP BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH GOOD SUNSHINE...OCCASIONALLY DIMMED BY CIRRUS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY BY DAY (LOW TO MID 70S) AND A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL BY
MORNING (GENERALLY 40S EXCEPT A FEW 30S ON SUNDAY MORNING RANCHES)
BEFORE RISING TOWARD 80 BY AFTERNOON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...BUOY020 CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS. THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER THE
PGF WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE TX COASTLINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA THROUGH 10
PM. AFTERWHICH EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW AND REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRIT THROUGH FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: DAY AFTER DAY OF
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES RISING
TO BETWEEN 70 AND 90 HAVE TAKEN A TOLL ON "CRISPING" FINE FUELS
(GRASSES) IN THE LAST WEEK...AND NOW EVEN THE LONGER FUELS (100
HOUR) ARE INDICATING DRYNESS ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF US 281/IH
69C. SATURDAY BRINGS THE NEXT THREAT FOR A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND 15-25 MPH 20 FOOT WINDS...AND EVEN THE
FOLLOWING MONDAY AND PERHAPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR WIND SPEEDS AS DEWPOINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE NO
PROBLEM CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HUMIDITY EASILY
DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT AND LIKELY TOUCHING 10 PERCENT IN SPOTS
AS TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  45  69  53  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          44  70  52  71 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            42  72  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              43  73  52  72 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      38  72  48  71 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   53  68  57  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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