509
FXUS64 KBRO 110515
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1215 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Weak mid-level low pressure remains sandwiched along the lower
Texas coast with high pressure across the Desert SW and eastern
Gulf into this weekend. Current Saharan dust plume is expected to
dissipate into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure holds
across the Gulf, with low pressure across northern Mexico,
maintaining moderate to gusty southeasterly flow across Deep South
Texas, especially Friday and Saturday. Rain chances generally
remain low, currently around 15 percent Friday and Saturday along
the sea breeze, then below 10 percent Sunday and Monday. Drier air
and another round of dust arrives next week, keeping rain chances
below 10 percent.

Expect seasonal temperatures gradually warming next week with
humidity boosting the heat risk to moderate (level 2 of 4) across
Deep South Texas into late next week. Skies may be hazy through
Friday and again next week, with periods of degraded air quality
for sensitive groups.

Increasing swell periods and surf around 3 to 4 feet will
maintain a moderate risk of rip currents late Friday through
Wednesday across the lower Texas coastal beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Through 06z Saturday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the entire 24 hour 06z TAF period. There could be a few MVFR
clouds around from time to time.

An enhanced pressure gradient near the sfc will result in moderate
to breezy southeasterly winds through the day on Friday. Southeast
winds 5-10 kts tonight will strengthen during the day on Friday 15-
20 kts with gusts as high as 25-30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Surface high pressure generally holds across the Western Gulf with
light to moderate southeasterly winds through the forecast period,
maintaining seas of generally 2 to 4 feet into mid next week, with
gradually improving marine conditions late next week. Small Craft
Caution conditions are expected generally each afternoon across
the bay and northern nearshore waters and may approach Small Craft
Advisory criteria Friday and Saturday afternoons due to gusty
winds. There remains a low chance of thunderstorms offshore
through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  80  92  80 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               94  78  95  77 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 96  80  96  80 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  77  97  78 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  81  87  80 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  78  91  79 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma