Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...SOME HAVE TERMED THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THE `LAND OF WASTED CAPE`...AND THE CURRENT BIG
PICTURE `PUZZLE PIECES` ARE MAKING THE ARGUMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHLY ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE IS CREATING MESSY WEATHER FROM NEAR
AUSTIN INTO OKLAHOMA...AND EVEN PRODUCED A DEADLY TORNADO ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE FROM DEL RIO EARLIER THIS MORNING.  WITH THE WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...ANY SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE CONVECTIVE WILL FAVOR
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEAVE DEEP S. TEXAS OUT OF THE ACTION.
VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM 700-400 MB DOESN`T HELP THE CAUSE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ALL THE TRIGGERS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
TIP OF TEXAS.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH PICK UP ON THE GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AND
LACK OF FORCING...WITH RAW DATA AND GUIDANCE BARELY REGISTERING AND
RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A
VERY SMALL AREA OF 70% MEAN RH ALONG THE TAIL OF WHAT`S LEFT OF THE
EAST TEXAS CONVECTION BETWEEN SUNSET AND 10 PM JUST SOUTHWEST OF
STARR COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING IT IN MEXICO...AND THE 18Z HRRR
WANTS TO DO SOMETHING SIMILAR BUT MUCH EARLIER...AS I WRITE THIS A
LITTLE AFTER 230 PM...WHICH HAD NOT HAPPENED AND LOOKS SPURIOUS.

BOTTOM LINE?  HAVE TRIMMED BACK RAIN CHANCES AND LOCATIONS EVEN
MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND KILLED OFF
ALTOGETHER THIS EVENING (OUTSIDE OF A 10 PERCENT SILENT CHANCE).

OTHERWISE...BENIGN WEATHER IS THE RULE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHATEVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE ERASED BEFORE NOON...WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS BUT A PLENTY WARM ATMOSPHERE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TICK UP 1 TO 2 DEGREES OVER THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL A SHADE UNDER GUIDANCE WHICH ISN`T HANDLING THE
WET SOIL/EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SITUATION THIS SPRING. THE USUAL
OVERNIGHT OVERCAST RETURNS SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FORECAST TEMPERATURES...75 TO 80...LOOK ON
TARGET.

AS FOR THE RIP/LONGSHORE CURRENT THREAT AT AREA BEACHES...HAVE
UPDATED THE STATEMENT TO KEEP THE HAZARD FLOWING GIVEN ANY LATE
VISITORS BEFORE THEY HEAD HOME TO WORK AND SCHOOL.  SHOULD BE ABLE
TO LET DROP AT MIDNIGHT...OR SOONER.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY WITH
THICKNESSES INCREASING IN STEP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
NORTH AND WEST GULF...RESULTING IN SEASONAL WEATHER WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH
NEARS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING CONVECTION OVER WEST TEXAS AND
THE BIG BEND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THE ENERGY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA.

THE SUBTORIPCAL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SPREAD WEST ON FRIDAY...WITH
A DRIER AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
IS PUSHED NORTH. MAY SEE A SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY...BOTH LONG TERM
MODELS HINT AT IT...AND MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY AS A
RESULT. COULD STILL SEE SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE MEXICAN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN INTO A BETTER DEFINED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A
TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY FORM SOUTH OF BAJA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY TELECONNECTING NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAZARD TO BUFFER FOR MEMORIAL DAY BOATERS IN THE MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE GULF...BUT WITH SYSTEM
EXITING AND AREA LEFT UNDER LIGHTER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE (10-15
KNOTS AT 850 MB) FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD EXPECT THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS...WHICH WILL FAVOR CAUTION /15-20 KNOTS GULF/ OVER
THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND THE SAME FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE BY DAY. SEAS
HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET BUT WITH STEADY STATE OR
LOWERING WINDS EXPECT 7 FEET ONLY IN LOCAL SITUATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF AND TEXAS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGIME OF MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND UPPER END MDT WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY SOLID ON THE GULF MUCH OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
FOUR TO SIX FEET WAVE HEIGHTS. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THU NIGHT...BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS DUE TO UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS
IN ADVANCE OF TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  89  80  87 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  79  88 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            77  92  79  90 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              78  94  79  91 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  95  78  92 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  86  80  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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