Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 281744 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF IS INTERACTING WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. TAF SITES REPORT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND FEW TO BKN
MIXED LEVEL LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH MORE SO NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH A DECREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE...AND WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS LIGHT
PATCHY MID VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
DAYLIGHT. LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCT LOW CLOUDS ABV 3 KFT WILL
DEVELOP AS WELL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN GENERAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CU FIELD CURRENTLY RUNNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
REMAINING SCT IN NATURE AROUND 2500 FEET. CU WILL REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT HELPING TO MIX ANY LLVL
MOISTURE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET WINDS
LOWER TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH CONTINUED NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MIDLEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT
ACROSS TEXAS. WINDS ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
WEST TO EAST...NOT HELPING THE FRONT CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE
REGION...WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAYS BREEZY
CONDITIONS...RUNNING 10 TO 15 MPH. FURTHER RELAXING OF THE
GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING VERY LIGHT WINDS ONLY AROUND 5
MPH.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...PROGRESSIVE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LATEST MODEL RUN
REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE WITH THIS
PATTERN. OVERALL...MOST ACTION TO REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM SOUTH
TEXAS WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 5 TO 6 DAYS. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE CONTENT TO REMAIN ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY THEN A TREND IN INCREASING
AND DEEPENING MOISTURE IS BEING ADVERTISED BY LATEST MODEL RUNS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POSSIBLE TAP OF PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE
COMBINE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THURSDAY`S COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK WIMPY WITH A WEAK LEAD
SHORTWAVE BARELY PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MODEL POP GUIDANCE REMAINING VERY LOW.
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LOW
GRADE RAIN CHANCES. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT AS IT BACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY THEN ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY START
OFF RATHER WARM THEN TREND DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL PLACE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
LOW IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AS WINDS BEGIN
TO TRANSITION NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AS A MODESTLY STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE RETURN OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUNDAY BECOME ENHANCED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH STEADILY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GULF
OPENS UP AND THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS ADVERTISE MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF AND
LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS UPWARDS WITH THE POPS. LATEST GRIDS
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH EVEN THE
CHANCE OF RAIN BETWEEN 25-40 PERCENT NEXT TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK FRONT INTERACTING WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER FOR THE GULF WATERS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP SEAS AGITATED RUNNING 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BRINGING WINDS
DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE ABLE TO RELAX INTO
WEDNESDAY...FALLING TO AROUND 2 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
WILL BE REINFORCED FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUAL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY INCREASING SUNDAY.

THANKS TO CRP AND WPC FOR THE COORDINATION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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