Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 300052 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
752 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Drier air filtering in from the north as a surface
high pressure ridge builds over the central plains states will
steadily dry out the atms over the RGV allowing VFR conditions to
prevail. The evening BRO sounding shows that the PWAT over the
region has dropped to 2.17 inches versus 2.34 inches this morning.
Expect some mid and high level cld cover to form periodically over
the next 24 hours. But overall VFR conditions should prevail for
all three RGV airports.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): A cold frontal boundary
remains just to the south of the RGV. A few lingering showers across
Cameron Country and portions of the coastal water will continue
through the late afternoon as the boundary steadily moves farther

High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue to build into
the region overnight...and usher in a much drier air mass. The air
mass will be on place through the end of the work week and dry
weather is expected. With the pattern the way it is...northerly flow
will be place and...besides the drier air...cooler conditions are
also expected. Temps will likely be slight below normal for lows and
near or a bit above normal for highs. Overall...a pleasant short
term forecast is on tap.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): a weak 500mb shortwave
trough is expected to move across southwest Texas Saturday.
Moisture appears limited across most of the CWA so will not
mention any rain chances through the weekend into early next week.
Subsidence should prevail in the wake of the trough Sunday into
Monday before a 500mb trough moves across the western United
States Monday into Tuesday. Moisture is progged to increase across
portions of Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper level trough
will bring a weak cold front across the state Thursday as the
trough moves eastward across the central U.S. Wednesday into
Thursday. This frontal boundary will provide at least a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the
forecast period.

Tonight through Friday Night...Showers will continue to exit the
region late this afternoon as a frontal boundary finally exits
south of the area. High pressure will continue to build over Deep
South Texas and winds could pick up a little overnight.
However...these light to moderate N to NE winds should remain near
or below 15 Knots overnight. Winds will relax through the day
Friday as the high pressure settles in place. Seas will be in the
2 to 3 feet range.

Saturday through Tuesday...Light northeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Saturday with surface high pressure
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will
remain weak across the lower Texas coast Sunday with weak surface
low pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico. Light northeast
winds Sunday will become variable Monday with surface high
pressure across the eastern United States. Light southeast winds
will develop Tuesday with low pressure developing across the
Rockies and surface high pressure across the eastern U.S. moving




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