Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KBRO 262054
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH VERY
LOW MOISTURE VALUES PREVAILING OVER THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START RETURNING FROM A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS.
ALSO THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WAA TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS
A RESULT OF THE RETURNING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOMORROW NIGHTS
MINS WILL BE A BIT WARMER VERSUS TONIGHTS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TOMORROW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO WARM UP NICELY. MAV AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE IS ON THE WARMER SIDE VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS AND
PREFER THIS WARMER SOLUTION.

WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS PREVAILING WILL MAINTAIN NIL POPS
THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING. NEAR PICTURE PERFECT SHORT
TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL WORK TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP VEER THE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE IS A S/W TROUGH
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW /PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES BY SUNDAY/ AND THIS MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY HOLD STEADY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.

A S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND DOWN INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. ITS HARD TO
THINK A SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUT THE ECMWF IS BRINGING IN A LOT OF COOLER AIR. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR TEMPS TUE AND WED AND WILL SHOW A SHORT PERIOD
OF NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILD RIGHT BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL BE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BENIGN BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AMID MODERATE SEAS. FOR NOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  73  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          53  75  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            50  74  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              51  75  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      49  74  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   60  73  63  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.