Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 212350 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...Convection is dying out across Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley and tranquil VFR conditions will prevail
tonight with nearly clear skies and very light winds. Tomorrow,
another batch of convection will develop but will likely remain
too isolated to warrant inclusion in the TAFs at this time. VFR
will prevail with scattered clouds and light to moderate winds
at the surface.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): 500mb ridge across
the south central and southeast United States will allow moisture
across the Gulf of Mexico to move westward into northeast Mexico
and the Rio Grande valley tonight into Friday. This will continue
to provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
coastal waters tonight into Friday as well as across the coastal
sections of the CWA Friday as outflow from convection offshore the
lower Texas coast moves inland.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): Not a whole lot of
changes the long term to speak of. An elongated broad high
pressure system will be stretched across much of the CONUS.
Low pressure systems will pass through the far northern extent of
the high in Southern Canada...which will serve to split it into
two ridges...one over the East Coast and West Coast. This will
weaken the center portions of the high pressure...allowing
weak perturbations in the flow to be driven westward towards Deep
South Texas. As such...the chances for scattered convection will
continue through the period. An interesting feature to note for
toward the end of the period...is an inverted trough...one that is
more robust in nature....which will be passing from the Atlantic
into the north Gulf water At this time...it appears that will
feature may stay well north of the region...and any impacts on the
sensible weather here for the valley may just be an a slight
increase in precip chances for Wednesday and Thursday.
Tonight through Friday night: Seas were near 3 feet with east to
northeast winds near 7 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Light east
to southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight
into Friday with high pressure across the north and northeast Gulf
of Mexico and weak low pressure across the Bay of Campeche. The
pressure gradient will remain weak across the lower Texas coast
through Friday night and light southeast winds will prevail across
the coastal waters as a result.
Saturday though Tuesday night: The pressure gradient should
remain generally relaxed through the weekend and early next week.
The high pressure centers over the CONUS will shift the flow over
the Gulf back to a more southeasterly flow. This will shorten the
fetch and reduce the swells. As such...low to moderate seas are
expected. Winds will also be light to moderate...around 15 knots
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