Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 031132
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KHRL TO KBRO AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF
THE REST OF THE VALLEY REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER
WILL BUILD LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO HEATING TAPPING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH PW VALUES ESTIMATED ABOVE 2.1 INCHES STILL. BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST...SO RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE
TEMPERATURES REASONABLY WELL TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 104 INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 105 TO 110 THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT...FURTHER LIMITING THE RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT LESS...SO ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SATURDAY...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BETWEEN USUAL SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE INLAND WATERWAYS TOMORROW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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