Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 240434 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1034 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AT THE SURFACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DRY
AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF A STORM SYSTEM EXITING
TO THE EAST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO RELAX TONIGHT AS EVENING
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH
REDUCING THE STRONG GRADIENT. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND PROGRESS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL ARRIVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF LASTING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DRYING THROUGH THE MID AND LOW LEVELS WILL
LEAD TO A PWAT FALLING TO AROUND 0.35 INCHES SATURDAY WHICH NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD BUT BEFORE THEN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS STRONGER WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS WILL EXPIRE AT
3 PM AND DID NOT ALTER THIS ANY. NOT ANTICIPATING A SHORT FUSED
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT A FEW STRONG
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE /30 TO 35 MPH/.

AM EXPECTING THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING. INHERITED LOWS
TONIGHT LOOKED DECENT BUT DID DROP A DEGREE HERE AND THERE BASED ON
COOLER NAM MOS DATA. HOWEVER BASED ON THE INFLUX OF HIGH CLOUDS DID
NOT LOWER TO THIS MOS DATA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BUT HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY. THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA LOW WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH WHILE THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
500 MB RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL DIG SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH ANOTHER BROAD 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS WILL DIG WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY. HOWEVER UNTIL THEN
EXPECT WARM AND PRETTY DRY WX TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WITH
OVERALL TEMPS STAYING WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE JANUARY.

OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD AT 500 MB THROUGH AROUND
WED OF NEXT WEEK THEN STARTS TO DEGRADE SOMEWHAT FOR THURS AND FRI
WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER 500 MB CLOSED LOW LOCATED CLOSER
TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA VERSUS THE ECMWF. WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST THE
GFS ACCORDINGLY PLACES THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS MORE DIRECTLY OVER DEEP
SOUTH TX VERSUS THE ECMWF. THE GFS MEX MOS TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE
IS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF NUMBERS. SO WILL GO
CLOSE TO A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST
WORDING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL POPS. DESPITE THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH AN
OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN THE WIND SPEEDS GOING INTO THE LATE
EVENING. GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS OUT 60 NM LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. THIS
PRODUCT WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AT WHICH TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REPLACE IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
THUS BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THROUGH 3 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A LIGHTER OFFSHORE GENERALLY WESTERLY WIND AND SEAS FALLING
TO NEAR 2 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500 MB RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE PGF WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
DURING THE LATTER MARINE FORECAST PERIODS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
FAIRLY LOW AND SEAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  40  63  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          39  64  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            39  65  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              38  65  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      36  66  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   44  61  48  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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