Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 291806 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
106 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY EAST OF I-69C. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.
CALM WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY GROUND FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAINLY
BETWEEN 09-13Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL LIMIT THIS SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. DEBRI CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING REMAINING CALM OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GROUND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN KMFE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE TEXAS REGION WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NOTABLE NW FLOW
UP TO 700 MB IN THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR FILTERING
IN THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS OF 7Z...WEAK MID LEVEL LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST IS HELPING DEVELOP SOME STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW THIS LOW REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AND
LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS IT SLIGHTLY SHIFT EAST. AT THIS TIME...LEFT
20 PERCENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS.  DRY AIR
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL LOWER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
TODAY. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER WITH A FEW SPOTS FURTHER NORTH REACHING 69
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOCATIONS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE 90S.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE RICH MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RAIN
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP. INCLUDE PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AND IMPROVING BY MID MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
WEAK LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY LOWERS AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST.
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE VEERING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE 90S
WEST OF HWY 77 AND 80S ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURS
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS SOUTH
TX THURSDAY INTO THURS NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX FRIDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO
SATURDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR CRP IS PRODUCING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WHERE IT IS MORE UNSTABLE.  THIS LOW WILL
KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE WEAK LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF WATERS
ENHANCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS A
RESULT BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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