Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 290343 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1043 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...It will be another hot day tomorrow with 850 temps
looking just as robust as they were today. Have increased temps
for much of the area as downsloping SW winds are expected.
Furthermore, the dryline will attempt to push towards the coast
once again. Winds will also be strong along the coastal counties
and another Wind Advisory maybe needed especially in the mid to
late morning. However, winds should decrease by the afternoon as
low pressure begins to take shape across the Mexican Plateau ahead
of the cold front that is expected late Saturday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 709 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Gusty SSE winds will continue through the early
evening before lessening a bit after sunset. However, the surface
pressure gradient will remain strong across Deep South Texas
through the period and gusts will continue overnight.
Meanwhile, low clouds will likely form again overnight and have
kept MVFR cigs at all locations and have include mention of HZ.
Winds will increase around mid morning Saturday for a few hours,
but should weak some in the afternoon as low pressure form near
the Mexican Plateau ahead of a cold front that will come through
just beyond this period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): A mid level low will sink
over the four corners tonight and toward the Texas Panhandle on
Saturday. Ridging will remain parked over the Southern U.S. Atlantic
Coast. Persistent low pressure over the Southern Plains, ahead of
the mid level low, will keep the local pressure gradient tight and
the switch to the wind machine on. Look for another breezy to windy
day along the coast on Sat, though conditions for a wind advisory
may be marginal. Those winds will help keep high temperatures a
skosh lower than otherwise, however, but still looking at mid to
upper 90s for the coastal areas with 100 to 105 degree readings
inland. Lower relative humidity values will keep heat index values
below 110 degrees and below heat advisory criteria territory. A
front is still due Saturday night, moving into the Upper Valley
around midnight and through the CWA by dawn. The Upper Valley will
feel refreshing low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s, but the
Lower Valley may not dip below the 70 mark Sunday morning due to the
later arrival of the front. High temps Sunday will be lower for all
areas, however. A few showers may develop along the front Sunday
morning, but cooler, drier, air will be in close tow behind the
front, quickly moving in with a stabilizing effect.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): 500mb low/trough across the
southern plains Sunday will move northeast Monday providing
subsidence across south Texas early next week. A 500mb shortwave
trough is expected to develop across northwest Mexico as well as
the northwest United States Tuesday and move towards the south
central U.S. Wednesday. Low to mid level moisture is progged to
increase across south TX Tuesday into Wednesday as a result and
rain chances will develop Wed night into Thursday as a cold front
moves into south TX Wed night and through the Rio Grande valley
Thurs morning. Will go with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wed night/Thurs morning for the CWA. Drier and slightly cooler air
will filter into the area in the wake of the front Thursday. Above
normal temperatures will prevail Monday through Wednesday before
the front moves the CWA early Thursday. Near normal temperatures and
relatively dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the
forecast period.

MARINE (Now through Saturday night): Small craft advisory
conditions with fresh winds will continue on the Gulf through the
period. A persistent southeast wind stress vector will build seas
through the period as well. Winds will decrease Saturday night ahead
of a front, but advisory conditions will persist due to elevated wave
heights. The Laguna will be a little more problematic, with winds
dropping below criteria tonight but increasing above criteria again
on Sat. Elevated rip current risk and higher surf will be issues for
beachgoers on Saturday, given the relatively warm weather expected.

Sunday through Wednesday...Strong north winds will prevail across
the coastal waters Sunday in the wake of a cold front moving
offshore the lower Texas coast Sat night. Winds and seas should
diminish across the western Gulf of Mexico Sun night as the
pressure gradient weakens. Surface high pressure across the
northwest Gulf Sun night will move eastward Monday allowing winds
to continue to diminish and veer to the east. Light east winds
Monday will increase and veer to the southeast Mon night as low
pressure develops across west TX and high pressure moves eastward
across the southeast United States. Light to moderate southeast
winds will prevail across the lower TX coast Tuesday and Wednesday
before a cold front moves into central TX Wed afternoon. Small
craft advisories will be needed for all the coastal waters Sunday
and offshore waters Sun night.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

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