329
FXUS64 KBRO 081728
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Drier conditions expected mid to late week.

- Saharan dust will lead to hazy conditions Wednesday to Friday.

- Moderate Heat Risk continues through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Will continue to see low to moderate rain chances (20-40%) through
Wednesday as an upper level trough moves westward and interacts with
tropical moisture and diurnal instability. Streamer showers are
expected in the morning hours and become more scattered in the
afternoon coinciding with the heat of the day, though most activity
will remain east of US-281. With PWATS between 1.75 and 2 inches,
any convection could produce brief heavy downpours and the most
robust activity will also be capable of producing gusty winds and
cloud to ground lightning. This activity could become more
limited as we head into Wednesday as a plume of Saharan dust is
forecasted to begin moving into Deep South Texas. This Saharan
dust will lead to hazy conditions across the region.

As we head into mid/late week mid level ridging will build overhead
leading to dry conditions across Deep South Texas. With this said,
we will continue to maintain a very low chance (generally 10% or
less) of seabreeze showers/thunderstorms through the weekend. Hazy
conditions will continue into early Friday before Saharan dust
begins to move out of the area.

Temperatures will remain warm through the period with highs in the
mid to upper 90s and heat indices between 100-110 degrees. This will
maintain a Moderate Heat Risk across much of Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley into next week. If spending a prolonged period
of time outdoors, remember to practice heat safety to prevent heat-
related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions will prevail all all aerodromes through the TAF
period. Southeasterly winds will gust to around 25 kts through this
afternoon before becoming light this evening. There could be a few
isolated showers or thunderstorms through this afternoon that could
briefly lead to gusty winds, cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy
rainfall and briefly reduce visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through much of
the week. Saharan dust will move into the coastal waters by
Wednesday which will lead to hazy conditions. By Thursday afternoon,
a slightly enhanced pressure gradient could lead to Small Craft
Caution as winds increase to 15-20 kts, especially on the Laguna
Madre, through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  93  78  93 /  10  30  10  10
HARLINGEN               75  94  75  95 /   0  30   0  10
MCALLEN                 79  96  78  97 /   0  30   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  96  75  97 /   0  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  80  87 /  10  30  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  91  77  91 /  10  30   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/AVIATION...68