Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 291750
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVC DEVELOPED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST NEAR SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND PORT ISABEL. THIS LOW IS STRENGTHENING AND
INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH LIGHT RAIN. THIS
WILL IMPACT KBRO IN THE NEXT HOUR AND EXTEND INTO HARLINGEN.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT.
AROUND MIDNIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CEILINGS DUE
TO THE HUMIDITY AND TE SATURATED SOIL ACROSS THE AREA FROM
RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH PRODUCING SOME STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. INCREASE
POPS THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 40 TO 50
MPH AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA AT
20 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL PLACE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE TAF
SITES WITHIN TWO TO THREE HOURS. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING...OR AWW...
MAY BE NEEDED FOR BRO AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WEATHER. ONCE THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVES AWAY AND/OR WEAKENS...AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR. A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL
LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND 4 AM AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 8 AM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY
AROUND NOON...AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING... BUT FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE IT MAY
STALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH LIMITED CAP
AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE CWA THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND A DECENT SEABREEZE SETUP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING
TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKER SEABREEZE IF ANY AT
ALL.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL LINE
WILL RESULT IN MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NOON OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 KTS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS AROUND 4
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL DISRUPTION...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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