Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 300541
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE THREE
TERMINALS WITH HAZE REDUCING THE VISIBILITY IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAX OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WIND WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
EXPECT VFR IN THE EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME CLOUDS AND
SOME HAZE IS STILL BEING SHOW ON SAT IMAGERY. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT HAZE FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS AS VSBL SATL
IMAGERY THIS EVE INDICATES AN AREA OF SMOKE/HAZE MOVING FROM SE
TO NW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEX. THIS MAY DROP SOME TERMINALS INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR AWHILE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
WHICH WILL IN TURN MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE PGF WILL BE A LITTLE BIT WEAKER THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE BRO CWA. DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION
BUT THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMING IN AT AND BELOW THE 950 MB LEVEL. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
MORE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLD COVER. OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIRLY
STATUS QUO TEMPS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE MOVING FROM SE
TO NW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO.
EXPECT THIS TO POTENTIAL REDUCE THE VSBYS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BRO CWA. AIR QUALITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN REDUCED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE RGV.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE 500 MB RIDGE LOCATED
OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AS AN
ELONGATED 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
TEXAS ON FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-69E/HWY 77 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AS THE WEAK 500 MB
WEAKNESS APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER TO NEAR 2.4 INCHES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIEFLY STALLS
NEAR THE TEXAS COASTLINE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
BUILD FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DECREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PGF WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. SO AT
THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER
TX COASTLINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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