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000
FXUS64 KBRO 042334 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
534 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
CURRENTLY A NARROW BAND OF LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 77/69E WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY TO THE
WEST. WHILE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE POTENTIAL CLEARING AND
ERODING OF THE LOWER RESTRICTED CLOUD DECK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AND EVEN EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. A NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVEL COUPLED WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES AND WET GROUND FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL WOULD SUGGEST
ANY RISING OF THE CIGS EARLY ON IN THE TAF PACKAGE WOULD QUICKLY
REVERSE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. AS RESULT THE TAFS WILL
REPRESENT THIS THINKING INDICATING POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL AND SHORT LIVED WINDOW OF
IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE REGION. OVERALL...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PACKAGE WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE IF THE LOWER CATEGORIES
REMAIN INTACT. NW-N WINDS WILL BE NO ISSUE BUT SOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE AOB 4000 FEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 131 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A 1023 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CWA WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THEN SOME...
STILL DOMINATED BY A THICK WEDGE OF COLD AIR. THE MORNING SOUNDING
AT KDRT SHOWS SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND DRIER AIR WORKING
SOUTH...BUT THE BRO CWA IS PRETTY WELL SATURATED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE THICK OVERCAST
HAS STYMIED MUCH TEMPERATURE INCREASE TODAY...AND REALIZED TEMPS
ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FORECAST. THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOWER 40S OR UPPER 30S. WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WIND
CHILL SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. WITH AN END TO SERIOUS CAA...HIGH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S...WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE UPPER
VALLEY. KEPT A TOKEN MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS WHILE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MODIFY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL SWING ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY...BUT DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT HERE...AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...BUT AS THE
TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR...SETTING UP A
PLEASANT THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL EDGE UP
INTO THE 50S FOR THE LOWER VALLEY WITH 40S STILL FOR THE RANCH
LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. AT THE
SURFACE...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST. NORTH WINDS THURSDAY
MORNING QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO MID
AND UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
500 MB TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S SATURDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ECWMF FASTER THAN THE GFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER
1.4 INCHES BY SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE. RAIN MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AM CARRYING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH 6 PM SINCE WINDS AND SEAS AT BUOY 020
ARE STILL CLOSE TO CRITERIA. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CLEAR TO THE
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NORTH WINDS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND BUILDING THE SEAS AS WELL AS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTH WINDS DECREASE AND VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
68...LONG TERM