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000
FXUS64 KBRO 022327 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
527 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECASTS.
NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE W-SW AT MOST OF THE ATMS LEVELS. THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT SPREAD NARROWS ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUES
MORNING TO ALLOW SOME POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG IMPACTING THE AREA. THE
BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THE MFE WITH THE MET MFE GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR MORNING FOG. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL GENERALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT
THROUGH TUES MORNING FOR THE VALLEY AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY WITH MODERATE WINDS
IN PLACE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE 500 MB RIDGING
WILL SHIFT STEADILY EAST OVER THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER REGION AND
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG MID
LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED OVER
THE REGION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW GOOD DIURNAL
HEATING FOR TOMORROW. WAA WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SW-SE AT THE
LOWER LEVELS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL STEADILY WARM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THE MET/MAV AND ECMWF MAX AND MIN TEMPS ARE ALL CLUSTERING PRETTY
CLOSE TOGETHER THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS ALL APPEAR TO BE
CATCHING ON TO THE WARMUP PRETTY WELL. WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SHORT TERM TEMP TRENDS.

THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR ZERO POPS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE
REGION TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION. HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD REMAINS A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL BUT NOT EXPECTING HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AS COMPARED TO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WITH
THE CONTINUED LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES OF HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
STREAMER SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

MODELS STILL IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING...BUT BROADLY SPEAKING PASSAGE SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY AROUND
LUNCH TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF WARMING POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CHANGING OVER TO MORE STRATIFORM RAIN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT SOME CLEARING LATER SUNDAY
OUT WEST BUT WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES IN UNTIL BETTER
CONSISTENCY EXISTS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SATURDAY OF TWO WEEKS
AGO AND MAYBE A TICK COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE LOWER VALLEY. WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT THE MOMENT.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...CURRENTLY BUOY020
REPORTS A SW WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SWELLS AROUND 3 FEET. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WILL START TO STRENGTHEN THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE YET...BOTH THE BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS COULD PUSH INTO SCEC CRITERIA THROUGHOUT TOMORROW
NIGHT MAINLY DUE TO WINDS NOT SO MUCH SWELLS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUST POSSIBLE
AS WELL. SEA HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY JUMP TO 10-12 FEET BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE 7 FOOT SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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