Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231128 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
628 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail
across Deep South Texas this morning. Some low cloud decks have
developed overnight across portions of the northern ranchlands but
are not expected to impact valley TAF sites. Daytime heating and
strengthening southeasterly low level flow will maintain good low
level mixing later this morning and afternoon. Winds of 20 to 25
knots with gusts around 30 knots are possible this afternoon.
Southeast winds will gradually diminish to moderate levels after
sunset this evening. VFR conditions expected to continue for the
next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Above normal temperatures will
continue through the short-term. Current water vapor imagery shows a
500mb trough over the Great Basin with mid level ridging overhead.
Latest BRO VAD winds indicate southeast winds of 30 knots at 1000

Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with
strengthening low pressure across west Texas will support breezy to
windy conditions across the area today. Latest short term guidance
suggests winds may not reach or marginally reach wind advisory
criteria today and VAD winds only show 30 knots of winds up to 2000
feet. Will hold off on the mention of a wind advisory at this time
due to below average confidence. High temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 80s under partly cloudy skies.

The axis of a mid level trough will move over the Four corners
region this evening as 500mb ridging drifts over the Gulf of Mexico.
A front will push into Central Texas tonight as moderate southeast
winds continue locally. Increasing moisture will support some low
and high clouds tonight, especially across the northern ranchlands.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 60s to lower

A front will move into the Deep South Texas on Friday bringing much
drier airmass into the western half of the CWA Friday afternoon. No
rainfall is expected with this boundary. Friday will be warmer with
high temperatures ranging from the 80s near the coast to the low to
mid 90s across the west.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): Tranquil weather
continues to be anticipated through most of the forecast period
with a nearly zonal 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley complemented by high pressure at the surface. The
only opportunity for rainfall during the period may occur on
Wednesday as the zonal flow becomes oriented more out of the
southwest with closed 500 mb low pressure shifting into the Four
Corners area. No cold air surges from cold fronts will result in
well above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 16 knots with gusts near 18 knots and seas of 3.3 feet
with a period of 6 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. High pressure over the
Gulf and strengthening lower pressure across west Texas will support
moderate to strong southeast winds and building seas today and
tonight. A small craft advisory is in effect 11 am to 7 pm for the
Laguna Madre due to the strong southeast winds. Small craft should
exercise caution conditions expected to prevail on the Gulf waters
today with small craft advisory conditions developing by late this

Friday Night through Wednesday: Adverse marine conditions, with
Small Craft Advisories, will dominate throughout a majority of
the forecast period courtesy of high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico interacting with lower pressure over the Central Plains
and northern Mexico. The most favorable period of wind and sea
conditions looks to occur Monday night through Tuesday, as a weak
cold front washes out north of the Lower Texas coastal waters,
briefly weakening the pressure gradient.


GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM
     CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-135.



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