Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 172001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT OPTIMIZE THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD
FAVOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS THIS TREND AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT KEEPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVING INLAND ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT STILLS REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AT TIMES. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 75-80. THURSDAY`S HIGH WILL
BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. LOW TO MID 90S
SHOULD SUFFICE WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND. DID HOWEVER GO A DEGREE
ABOVE MODEL BLEND. SUMMER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 4 DAYS AT LEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND DAILY SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES
KEEPING THEM NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
NORTH OF THE CWA...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND 850 TO 700 MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
70 PERCENT. CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING GETS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
WEST BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. PWATS LOWER TO
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP...DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A DAILY SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z
ECMWF PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BUT STALL/WASH OUT THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL LOCATION
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS TO
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
PASSING OVER THE LAGUNA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF
PORT MANSFIELD.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING
LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  79  89 /  10  20  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  92  77  91 /  10  20  20  40
HARLINGEN            76  94  76  92 /  10  20  10  40
MCALLEN              77  95  78  92 /  10  10  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  78  93 /  10  10  10  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  87  80  87 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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