Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 310854
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY MAINLY WEST OF I 69C WITH SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS
AND WESTWARD MOVING SEABREEZE TSTORMS. SOILS CONTINUE TO BE
PRECONDITIONED IN THESE AREAS FOR QUICK RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING.
REPORTS FROM ACROSS HIDALGO COUNTY WESTWARD TO ZAPATA COUNTY
INDICATE SPORADIC AREAS OF STANDING WATER EVEN BEFORE THE EVENT
LAST NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND BUT NOT BEFORE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AS WELL WITH 0-6KM WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS. WITH THE
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AND DECENT CONVERGENCE WILL GO AHEAD
AND EXTEND THE FFA THROUGH 6 PM. WILL TRIM OUT THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. ONGOING CONVECTION NOW AND SEABREEZE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS.

THE DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH PWATS DECREASING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES BY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AS WELL FROM THE WEST AND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWER/STORM MONDAY AS WINDS
WILL STILL BE EASTERLY...POP CHANCES DECREASE WITH TIME THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION AROUND AND IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY AS DRIER AIR
AND LESS CLOUD COVER ALLOWS GOOD HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REAMINS
WEAK.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE H5 RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO WHERE IT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MORE SETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE
STAYS MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD...AND WILL IN FACT BUILD OVER TEXAS
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FORECAST WILL THEREFORE REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEAR
90 ALONG THE COAST...SLIGHTLY LOWER AT THE BEACHES...TO THE MID
90S FAR WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WIL BE AROUND THE MID 70S.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL BE FLAT
AND WEAK WITH A LOOSE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO SOMETIMES
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  74  87  75 /  40  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          88  72  90  73 /  40  20  20  10
HARLINGEN            88  71  90  72 /  40  20  20  10
MCALLEN              89  72  92  71 /  40  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  70  93  70 /  40  30  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  75  84  77 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ248>250-252-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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