Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 271745 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...CU field a little more pronounced this afternoon, but
remains SCT or thinner areawide. Seabreeze beginning to move
inland currently, with an isolated shower or two beginning to show
up on radar. Local airports should remain VFR through the rest of
the day, unless a brief shower approaches, but chances of this are
too low to mention in TAF. Winds become L/V or calm overnight
areawide, which any overnight CU remain above 2500. Light and
variable winds continue well into the late morning hours tomorrow.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Mostly clear skies with light and variable winds
prevail across deep south Texas this morning. VFR conditions
expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Light winds this
morning will gradually increase to around 12 knots across the
area this afternoon. Convection is expected along the seabreeze
again later today but coverage will be too isolated to mention at
this time. East winds will gradually diminish to less than 10 knots
by late this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Brownsville radar shows some very
isolated streamer showers across portions of the lower Texas Gulf
waters this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a mid to upper level
ridge centered over the mid Atlantic states, a 500 mb low over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and a weak TUTT low overhead. Also, a
large plume of deep tropical moisture was noted on water vapor
imagery over the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Brownsville sounding
data from Thursday evening showed a precipitable water value of 1.76

The combination lighter winds, limited moisture, and day time
heating should support isolated sea breeze convection this
afternoon. High temperatures today and Sunday will be slightly above
normal with heat index readings generally between 103 to 108 degrees
this afternoon. Light winds are expected tonight with low
temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s. Ample moisture and
instability from weak low pressure aloft will allow isolated to
scattered coastal convection to develop tonight and Sunday across
the lower Texas Gulf waters. Isolated to scattered sea breeze
activity is expected again across the deep south Texas on Sunday
with deeper moisture remaining mainly north of the area.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): The first sustained
period of rainfall in weeks still appears on track for a majority
of the long term portion of the forecast. Closed 500 mb low
pressure initially over the Middle Texas Coast will slowly move
south-southwest towards and over the BRO CWFA. Coupled with deep
tropical moisture and daytime heating, mainly scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected. The best opportunity for rainfall
(50 percent) will occur on Monday through Wednesday, and locally
heavy rainfall has been included in the official forecast for this
time period due to the anticipated deeper tropical moisture. Drier
weather, but still isolated convection, is forecast for Friday as
the closed 500 mb low dissipates and mid-level high pressure once
again resumes. With significant cloudiness in place and the
opportunity for rainfall each day, daytime high and overnight low
temperatures are expected to be near normal for most of the long
term forecast period.

MARINE (Now through Sunday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 6 knots gusting to near 8 knots with seas around 1.6
feet with a period of 6 seconds at 300 AM CDT/08 UTC. Broad high
pressure across the southeastern United States will maintain a
weak gradient through the forecast period. Light onshore flow and
low seas expected today through Sunday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop at times across the coastal
waters due to weak low pressure aloft.

Sunday Night through Friday: A weak pressure gradient will produce
light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower
Texas Coast throughout the period. Small Craft Exercise Caution
and Small Craft Advisory will not be needed.


.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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