Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 130922
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
422 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): A fairly tranquil night across
the RGV for the most part. Sky conditions have been mainly clear.
Recent rainfall, clearing skies, and calm winds have caused some
fog development this morning. Patchy fog should remain confined to
the northern ranchlands, but locations further south aren`t
immune. Fog will begin to dissipate around or shortly after
sunrise. At the moment, will hold off on the Dense Fog Advisory as
the more dense fog is currently more localized rather than
widespread.

A surface trough or what remains of the cold front that moved
through early this week was still situated across the northern Gulf
of Mexico. There have been a few showers develop along this boundary
overnight, however, overall coverage has been isolated at best.

Models have been a tad bullish with precipitation along the
aforementioned surface boundary in the Gulf. CAMs, or specifically
the HRRR has been rather dry, which is fitting based on early AM
trends. That will likely change just a bit as a plume of moisture
aloft slides over extreme south Texas later this morning and
afternoon. This moisture coupled with the sea breeze will likely
spark additional showers and storms, especially along and east of
I69C/Hwy 281 corridor. That said, the dome of high pressure will
likely help keep activity rather scattered.

Temperatures will be on the increase today and through much of the
short term period. Decided to bump highs a bit more today and
tomorrow as the ridge continues to dominate. Likewise, on Saturday,
showers may again be possible with the continued weak easterly flow
and westward progression of the sea breeze.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): A pretty strong 500
mb trough will dig across the central Plains States late Sat/early
Sun. This trough will shift further eastwards late Sun which will
allow a cold front to push through the RGV allowing for a cooler
and drier airmass to build over the region early next week. 500 mb
ridging will then rebuild over the area as the work week
progresses which will allow the airmass to moderate pretty quickly
as the low level flow becomes more onshore off of the warm Gulf of
Mexico. This fropa will allow the temps for next week to drop
closer to climo for mid to late October.

The GFS and ECMWF temp guidance are in reasonable agreement and
will go close to a model blend between the two through Day 7.

Decent moisture will pool ahead of this next cold front allowing
for some decent pops for the RGV for late Sun. Both the ECMWf and
GFs then tend to dry out the atms pretty quickly as a drier
airmass pushes in from the north. Both the longer range models
also show less potential for surface coastal troffing near the
lower TX coastline which will tend to limit the post front conv.

&&

.MARINE (Today through Saturday): A light easterly surface flow will
continue throughout the short term period. Buoy observations off
shore this morning indicated wave heights at around 3 feet or less.
Light winds and fairly benign wave heights can be expected at least
through Saturday. Can`t rule out a stray shower or possibly a
thunderstorm each day.

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night...Fairly low winds and seas
will prevail over the lower TX marine locations Sat Night and Sun
ahead of the next fropa. The post frontal PGF will then strengthen
back up to near SCA levels from late Sun through Mon and Mon
Night. The PGF will then start to weaken some starting Tues as the
center of the surface high sags more over the southeastern states.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  76  88  73 /  30  20  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          89  74  89  72 /  30  20  30  10
HARLINGEN            90  74  90  71 /  30  20  30  10
MCALLEN              91  75  91  72 /  30  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  74  93  71 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  79  86  77 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...69/55
Long Term...60



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