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000
FXUS64 KBRO 141124 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS A MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
SITUATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED
ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO IN THE UPPER VALLEY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODELS DID A GOOD JOB
INITIALIZING THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE KICKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND
WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO HAVING A
HARD TIME MOVING EASTWARD...PERHAPS DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER
KBRO 00Z SOUNDING. PWATS ARE AROUND 1.30 TO 1.60 CURRENTLY AND
THIS WILL CHANGE TODAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AND MOISTURE INCREASES. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE...MODEST CAPE...VIRTUALLY NO CAP...AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON FIRST IN THE WEST THEN
MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE DID COME IN A LITTLE
DRIER SO REDUCED POPS BY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. DECREASING
CLOUDS AND SUN BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PUSH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THE LOWER 90S OUT WEST BUT MORE CLOUD OUT EAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S....

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS GETS
BACK TO SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
HANGING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE LAST WEEK FINALLY MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD OVER THE STATE AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTH REMAIN WELL NORTH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS THE MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO BEGINS ITS GRADUAL PUSH NORTH.
FORECAST TO REMAIN RAINFREE WITH MOISTURE CHARTS KEEPING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 925MB AND THE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION/CAP
STRENGTHENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE OVER SEASONAL NORMALS
WHICH CURRENTLY ARE APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY
TO MID 90S OUT WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO ARE BUMPED ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE DEW POINTS CLIMB WITH THE GULF WATERS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER ELEMENT
BESIDES THE HEAT WILL BE THE WIND. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ONLY  SLIGHT
DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT THUS THE EXPECTED SUMMER LIKE SULTRY MID 70S
FOR LOWS.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FEET THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STEADY STATE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF TO INTERACT WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITION WILL BE THE PREVALENT CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATED TO STRENGTHEN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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