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000
FXUS64 KBRO 111123
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
623 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AT WHICH TIME RAPID IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR...REACHING VFR BY NOON. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH. IFR CONDS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR ONCE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY AS WINDS WEAKEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AS THE LOW HEADS EAST AND
DOWNGLIDE OVERSPREADS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART
IS DONE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LEFT OVER LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATER THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES
2-4 MILES COMMON AND WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST ALLOWING 925MB
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 20-24C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS TODAY IN
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AS STATED
PREVIOUSLY...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION DUE TO LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE 12-15Z TIME-FRAME WITH
A QUICK TURN TO THE NORTH IN THE WINDS AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE POSTED FOR THE THREE COASTAL COUNTIES
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 60S NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH LOWER 70S WITHIN THE VALLEY. EVEN
THOUGH NOT MEETING FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...WITH THE COMBINATION OF
LOWER RH VALUES AND STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS...ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL THURSDAY.

LONG TERM / WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE EXTENDED
REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS PACKAGE WITH MODELS
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE BY FRIDAY WITH THE SPREAD BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LARGE BY THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT FORECAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK THEN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

ZONAL FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM WITH THIS BENIGN WEST TO EAST FLOW HOLDING THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE
WEST COAST RIDGE AND SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THURSDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS TO REMAIN NORTH OR WEST OF THE REGION AND LIKELY TO
BE A NON FACTOR IN FORECAST. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHUNTING THE TROUGH EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES LITTLE WITH THIS TROUGH AND WAITS FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY LATER
IN THE PERIOD. THE MODEL SPREAD THEN EXPONENTIALLY GROWS FROM
HERE ON OUT AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OUT WEST AND THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE ECMWF TAKES THIS TROUGH AND DIGS IT
SOUTH TO NEAR MAZATLAN MEXICO/FOR A WEEKEND VACATION/ WHILE THE
GFS SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENS THIS TROUGH INTO A STRONG UPPER LOW
AND TRACKING IT JUST OFF THE COAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS FOR A
POTENTIAL RUDE AWAKENING FOR SPRING BREAKERS. BOTH SOLUTIONS LOOK
OUT OF WHACK WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT LOW BUT
SHOVING THE LOW/TROUGH WAY TO SOUTH. THE GFS LOOKS WAY OVER DONE
WITH MINOR SUPPORT ON TRACK BY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUT LITTLE
SUPPORT ON THE EXTREME DEEPENING INDICATED BY THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUN.

SO IN A NUTSHELL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A COOL BUT FINE START ON TAP. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
TO WARM UP NICELY THURSDAY PM BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EVEN UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND COMMENCES FRIDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AGAIN ARE LEFT UNCHANGED INDICATING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
AND A SPRING LIKE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
DRASTICALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SEAS QUICKLY BUILDING TO
6-10 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO LOWER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MARINE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THURSDAY WITH EXCELLENT MARINE
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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