645
FXUS64 KBRO 080528
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

An inverted mid-level trough of low pressure currently over the
central Gulf of America will gradually retrograde into Mexico
during the period. This weakness, combined with precipitable water
values that will hover near two inches, will result in isolated to
scattered convection across the BRO CWFA. The likely scenario will
be streamer convection over the lower Texas coastal waters at
night, followed by showers and thunderstorms that will develop
inland during the heating of the day and gradually migrate from
east to west. Temperature-wise, the opportunity for rainfall and
the associated cloud cover will hold daytime highs at near normal
levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

With the above-mentioned 500 mb weakness inland over Mexico
(eventually transitioning over the Pacific Ocean), and mid-level
high pressure nosing into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley from the east, generally dry weather will prevail through
the period. However, one issue that may reintroduce convection
into this portion of the total forecast at a later time will be
precipitable water values, which never significantly fall too far
below two inches.

Regarding temperatures, near normal daytime highs will be
maintained, with the 500 mb high in proximity to the region but
not overly oppressive. Despite relatively ample atmospheric
moisture, these values will not support any threat of a Heat
Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Conditions should mainly be VFR for all airports but BRO in
particular could see ceilings drop to MVFR as low clods move in
off the coast overnight. Winds should be southeasterly and
potentially become gusty around 14z. Guidance is showing some
possible showers moving into Cameron County around this time as
well but confidence is too low to put it in the TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

High pressure over the western Gulf of America will produce light
to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas
Coast through the period. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and
Small Craft Advisory are not anticipated to be needed.

(Thursday through next Tuesday)
High pressure over the western Gulf of America will interact with
thermal low pressure that will strengthen and persist over inland
Mexico. This will produce generally moderate winds and seas along
the Lower Texas Coast during the period. Although Small Craft
Advisory is not likely to be needed, Small Craft Should Exercise
cannot be entirely ruled out due to winds, especially for the
Laguna Madre.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  78  92  78 /  30  10  20  10
HARLINGEN               94  75  94  76 /  20  10  20   0
MCALLEN                 95  78  96  78 /  30   0  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  76  96  76 /  10  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  79  87  79 /  20  20  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  91  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...55-MM