Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS ACTUALLY IMPROVED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...RISING FROM
1500 TO 2000 FEET. MFE RECENTLY...HOWEVER...SLIPPED CLOSER TO 1K
FEET. FULL VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AND LESSENING CLOUD
COVER. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE LEVELS WHILE
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. RELATIVELY POOR AIR QUALITY WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT HAZE THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK 500 MB RIDGING WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMBINED WITH
PALTRY...BUT INCREASING...AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TODAY. A DRYLINE WILL INTRUDE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE BRO CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FROM EAST TO WEST...RESPECTIVELY.
THE DRY LINE FADES TONIGHT...AND YIELDS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
TOMORROW...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE HIGHWAY 281/INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...WHERE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST. EVEN WITH THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR WEDNESDAY TO WHAT
ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES REGION
WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
THURS AND FRI THAT WILL SWING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. SEVERAL TROUGHS SWING AROUND THIS CLOSED
500 MB LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
CLOSED LOW SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE RGV MON NIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING. OVERALL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THESE RESPECTIVE TROUGHS/CLOSED 500 MB LOWS
REMAINS PRETTY LIMITED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
DO NOT GO MUCH ABOVE 20 TO 30 % POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY ONLY 10 % POPS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE ATMS IN PLACE THROUGH FRI.

THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE WEAK TO MODERATE 500 MB RIDGING THAT PREVAILS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST. ALSO MODERATE E-SE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY WAA ON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TEND TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT. OTHERWISE EXPECT TEMPS
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AROUND SUN IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE LONGER
TERM GUIDANCE THEN STARTS TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHOWING A FASTER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500 MB TROUGHS LATE IN THE PERIOD
VERSUS THE ECMWF. ACCORDINGLY THE GFS SHOWS A LITTLE STRONGER CAA
FOR MON AND TUES OF NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
WARMER ECMWF FOR TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY AS BELIEVE THAT THE GFS MAY
BE OVERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY UNDER 4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07UTC.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE...
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. THE INTRUSION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY...LEADING TO LIGHTER
WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE PGF WILL REMAIN
PRETTY STRONG IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. EXPECT THE BEST CHCS FOR SCA
CONDITIONS TO EXIST STARTING LATE THURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.
&&

$$

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