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000
FXUS64 KBRO 141847
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
147 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...COLD FRONT ON THE MARCH
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN THE LAST 90
MINUTES OR SO. NOTICING ABOUT AN HOUR OF WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT 10 MPH BEFORE THE MAIN SURGE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES AT MOST
SOUTH TEXAS LOCALES. THE MAIN SURGE OF STRONG WINDS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY ABOUT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE. WIND GUSTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ELEVATED CAPPING SEEMS TO BE HOLDING BACK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND THAT IS LIKELY TO GENERALLY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE AFTERNOON...A SHARP INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH COMMONPLACE. TIGHTER GRADIENT PROJECTED IN
MESOSCALE MODELS NEAR THE COAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR 50 MPH GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF FURTHER TIGHTENS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT THAT THE FRONTAL SLOPE MAY
RELEASE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS BUT IN GENERAL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LAND ZONES AND A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.

TONIGHT...NAM/GFS/RAP SHOW A VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 45
MPH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE ABOUT 5 TO 6
HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT TO A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...BUT WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES.

TUESDAY...WE WILL KEEP A PRETTY STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS OVER LAND AND FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS. FULL SUN WILL COMPETE WITH
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO LEAD TO EVENTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S EAST LOW TO MID 70S WEST. ROUGH SEAS AND HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE
EXPECT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST IN A WHILE WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S OVER THE RANCH LANDS AND MID 40S OVER MOST
OF THE VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BROAD UNDULATING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID
WEEK. A SHARPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL PRECEDE A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY. A
DEEP CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP BUILD A RIDGE OVER TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND H5
DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV WHICH WILL
KEEP THE LOCAL PCPN CHCS LOW. HOWEVER...WEST COAST LOW WILL OPEN
UP AND MOVE EAST...WITH LEADING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DESTABILIZING
CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA MADRES AND LEADING TO CONVECTION OVER
THE FRONT RANGE AND RGV PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ONLY CARRYING ISOLATED CHANCES OF
RAIN FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS VERSUS THE GFS THROUGH
DAY SEVEN. BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF IS MAINTAINING TOO COOL OF A
BIAS ON THE TEMPS AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MEX TEMPS
AND POPS THROUGH DAY DAY IS STABLE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE MEX
GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS. SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND PERIODS OF SUSTAINED
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ALL DAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING MORE MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SEAS FALLING TO EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY MAY
SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHEAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINT VALUES WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM FALLING TO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE FALLING BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARM UP TUESDAY
MORNING. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  56  63  51  75 /  30   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          51  64  49  77 /  30   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            50  66  47  78 /  30   0   0  10
MCALLEN              51  70  48  80 /  20   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      51  73  45  80 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   59  62  55  74 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248-249-252.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-254>257.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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