Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 030914
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
414 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE
RETURN OVER TEXAS...SUPPORTING THE CONCEPT OF MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...AS ADVERTISED BY THE CURRENT MODEL SUITES.
THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE SHORT TERM...
ALLOWING THE AREA TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...SEASONAL
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING GENERATES LOW LEVEL CU...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST...MID
80S AT THE BEACHES...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 70 TO 75...EXCEPT A
SKOSH HIGHER AT THE BEACHES. CAN`T RULE OUT A WEAK SEA BREEZE AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE OF MUCH
SIGNIFICANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...BUT AS THINGS DRY OUT IT WILL BE LESS OF AN
ISSUE. KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS A PAIR OF
500 MB TROUGHS BRACKET THE RIDGING TO THE EAST AND WEST. THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO RIDE UP OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
MAY BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT AND ALLOW A LITTLE MORE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGING TO BUILD WEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLGT CHC POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY COVER THIS WITH SOME 10/20% POPS AS DEEP LAYEER TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY LIMITED OVER THE REGION.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY DECENT THROUGH DAY 7
AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS
ALSO PRETTY STABLE. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPS AND POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER
TEXAS SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO...VERY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL BE THE NORM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX THROUGH THIS COMING
SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD OF THE CWF. NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SE WINDS PREVAILING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 53 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 54 FEET LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. AT 55 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 23 FEET
CURRENTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 23 FEET EARLY THURSDAY. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
CONTINUED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  76  87  76 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          88  75  89  76 /  10  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            89  74  90  74 /  10  10  20   0
MCALLEN              91  74  92  75 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      92  74  92  74 /   0   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  78  83  78 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65



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