Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 130907
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  61  77  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          75  59  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  57  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              80  58  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      82  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  63  73  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD


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