Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 121733 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Daytime CU field limited to the coastal areas this
afternoon, and is slowly eroding from the west. SCT or better cigs
will continue through the rest of the day. Winds have not risen
as high as expected, but some strengthening is still coming this
afternoon. Winds will remain elevated around 10 knots overnight,
with minimal cloud cover at any layer. CU field develops briefly
tomorrow, but FEW or better is most likely through the day.
Lesser cloud cover will allow winds to better mix to the sfc, so
breezy conditions with gusts approaching 25knots during the day
Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite imagery shows low cloudiness over
neighboring Reynosa moving towards MFE, which may cause MVFR
through the next few hours. However, VFR is expected for a
majority of today for the aerodromes. Breezy surface winds are
also forecast. Tonight, VFR should persist with winds becoming
lighter and a few lingering low clouds. Convection is not likely
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The KBRO upper air sounding
from Friday evening indicated a precipitable water content of 1.80
inches, a value expected to hold through the forecast period.
Meanwhile, broad 500 mb high pressure centered over the southern
half of Texas will dominate over the BRO CWFA. With a relatively
dry atmosphere in place and suppressive high pressure overhead,
dry weather with well above normal temperatures are anticipated
for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday): 500mb high pressure
will remain over the Southern Plains through the period, bringing
plenty of subsidence across Deep South Texas through the week.
Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will maintain light
to moderate southeast flow with breezy conditions possible Tuesday
and Wednesday as low pressure develops in the Central Plains.
Temperatures each afternoon will range from the upper 90s east of
Highway 281/I-69C to well above 100F in the Upper Valley and
Ranchlands, with Heat Indices ranging from 105 to 110. Besides a
few isolated seabreeze showers possible along the coast, dry
conditions will dominate. By the end of the week models indicate a
slight uptick in moisture with a weak inverted trough developing
over the area, but have kept PoPs low given the limited moisture
depth by the end of the long term period.

MARINE (Now through Sunday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 16 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas
slightly under 4 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 02 CDT/07 UTC.
High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will interact with
intensifying thermal low pressure over inland Mexico during the
period. Winds over the Laguna Madre will reach Small Craft
Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisory criteria today and
tomorrow, with moderate winds and low to moderate seas on the Gulf
of Mexico waters east of Padre Island during the same time
period.

Sunday night through Friday: Surface high pressure will remain
over the Gulf with low pressure developing in the Central Plains
the first half of the week. S/SE winds will be moderate at times
with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions likely Monday through
Wednesday. Seas will build to 4 to 6 feet through Wednesday with
improving conditions the rest of the week as the gradient relaxes.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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