Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KBRO 250536 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1236 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT BRO AND HRL WITH MVFR EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AT MFE...AND THIS TREND
HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE CURRENT TAFS. VFR WILL RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AND PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE TODAY...12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 2.01 INCHES...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING
LIMITED WITH 1000-500 MB RH VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW AND
APPROACH 25C ACROSS ZAPATA CONTINUING THE HOT TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND INTO LOWER 100S ACROSS AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 77 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 109 ONCE
AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM WILL START
OUT MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. A 595 DECAMETER
HEIGHT CENTER WILL BE ANCHORED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE
1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SUBSIDENT AND STABLE ATMS WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT SIMILAR
SUMMERTIME WEATHER. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW
RAIN CHANCES.

THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS REASONABLE AND THUS CONTINUED WITH THE
ONGOING THINKING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 105 TO
110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ABSENT ANY REAL CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN...SHOULD NOT REALLY GO ANY HIGHER.

THE MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE H5 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...FLATTENING THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
AND PUSHING THE CENTER EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...BUT AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THE H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST TO OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY IN THE GULF...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE MODELS DO REFLECT
MORE UNSETTLED ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST GULF DURING THE WEEK. THOUGH
THERE WILL LITTLE REAL PRECIP PROMISE FOR THE LAND AREAS OF THE
CWA...THE SKY REGIME MAY SHIFT TOWARD MORE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT NEEDING TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FCST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTN
DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.