Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KBRO 032343 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DAYTIME CUMULUS FIELD SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH THE COOL
OF THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INITIATES A STRATUS DECK PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO CONDITIONS OF MVFR VSBY A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF SUNRISE BEFORE A TYPICAL VFR CUMULUS FIELD SPREADS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS RELAX TONIGHT WITH A 25
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING. THIS JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE TAIL EDGE OF THE
H5 TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...
KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES FROM COMPLETELY ENDING...BUT ALSO KEEPING
THE BLAZING HEAT AWAY FROM THE REGION. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE NWWD INTO THE REGION...BUT IS NOT OVERLY DEEP. A BRIEF SURGE
MAY REACH SOUTH TX EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS...
BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOWER OUT WEST
TOMORROW...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
90S WEST OF US281. MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE DISSIPATED BY SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD FIREWORKS VIEWING
AREAWIDE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A BROAD HEIGHT FIELD WILL
EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL WEATHER. DAILY
PWAT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...YET GENERALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WEAK SEA BREEZE SHOWERS.
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW MAY ALSO BRING ISOL OVERNIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS
UP FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE THESE POSSIBILITIES...RAIN CHANCE
PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW AND WILL BE ADVERTISED AS SILENT.

LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY.
THE LOWER PRESSURE WILL HANG ON INTO MID WEEK EVEN AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...591 DM HEIGHTS WILL STRETCH FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TEXAS AND THE LOWER SOUTHEAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE SIGNIFICANCE
WILL BE MUTED. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL BE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WERE SLOWLY INCHING
UPWARDS THIS MORNING BUT HAVE NOW STEADIED IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RELAX SLIGHTLY IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN TOMORROW...BUT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD 1016 TO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE OVER THE GULF...RESULTING IN MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE GULF AT NIGHT AND ON THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY...
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  90 /   0  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  91 /   0  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            77  96  77  93 /   0  20  10  10
MCALLEN              77  96  77  95 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  98  76  98 /   0  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  88  79  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/61


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.