Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 192333 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE GENERALLY ABOVE 12000FT AT MOST
AERODROMES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT BEFORE MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MON MORNING AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A 500MB LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD AND A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
BAY OF CAMPECHE. POSSIBLE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SYSTEM AND A NORTHWARD EXTENDING
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
SOURCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
GULF WITH DRIER AIR. A WEAK BOUNDARY RUNS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF...CROSSING INLAND ALONG THE MID TEXAS COAST. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...WHICH ALSO SEEMS TO BE HOLDING MOST CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE FINALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
AND UPPER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SCT TO BKN REMNANT HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY...A LITTLE BETTER CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AS A RESULT OF SURFACE TROUGHING...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL BACK
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SUPPORT GULF WIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS. MODELS
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE POP CHANCES NOT ONLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
ACROSS THE RIVER FROM THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY AS WELL. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAINING STORMS. HIGH TEMPS 80 TO 85.

MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION INLAND WILL WANE BUT COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLAY. LOW TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LLVL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEING
HELD IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE CHURNING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENOUGH GENERAL
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO CONTINUE TO SPARK
SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DURING PEAK
HEATING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE NE
THROUGH THE GULF LATER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LET THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER REGIME INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE ONLY DAY IN DISPUTE IS
THURSDAY...VARYING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE WILL DEPART.
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH PUSHES MOISTURE OUT
FASTER AND BRINGS A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

SOME CONCERN LATER IN THE WEEK AS LONG WAVE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF
PUSHES LARGER SEAS ASHORE. THIS WILL ARRIVE AT THE TIME OF A NEW
MOON...SO WAVE ACTION APPROACHING THE DUNES IS A POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO
PRODUCE MODERATE EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A SFC LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST
WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LWR TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG FETCH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...FLOWING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LONGER PERIOD SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE CAMPECHE LOW WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE
NE...ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL TURN SEAS MORE TO THE NE. LIGHTER WINDS LATE INT HE WEEK WILL
ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FEET...LIKELY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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