Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251129
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
529 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES UP TO 25 KNOTS. IFR/LIFR CONTINUES ITS GRIP ON THE TAF SITES
AS WELL WITH CONTINUED REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE DUE TO
OVERRUNNING. MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND PROVIDE A DRYING ATMOSPHERE ON ITS SOUTH AND
WESTERN FLANK. CIGS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR BY 19Z.
APY AND LRD ARE NOW VFR WITH THE AREA OF CLEARING HEADED EAST.
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END BY 15Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE COME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER TROF CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS IS INDUCING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
SIERRA MADRES AND ANOTHER AREA OF SFC PRESSURE FALLS IS SITUATED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT THIS HOUR WHICH MEANS WEAK CAA CONTINUES AT THE SFC
BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD STEADY OWING TO THE CONTINUED THICK
CLOUD COVER. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ALTHOUGH ONLY EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.

SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TAP FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL USHER IN AS WELL WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
AND WILL AID IN SHUNTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING AND OUT OF OUR MARINE AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST...THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR OUT WEST WHERE MORE SUN IS ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE LAND AREAS WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP THE
DOOR OPEN TO NORTHERN AIR. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PLAINS WILL EXTEND SOUTH WITH COLDER AIR ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MERCURY READING AT MIDNIGHT OF
45 TO 50 DEGREES MAY REPRESENT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 40 AND THEN NOT INCREASE MUCH FRIDAY...BUT THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWA MAY BE ABLE TO RECOVER BY A FEW DEGREES...FROM
THE MID 50S AT MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS GETTING TO 60 FRIDAY DURING THE
DAY. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY AT ANY
RATE...AS TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL FROM
ROUGHLY 65 TO 70. LOOK FOR GRAY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WITH COOL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...
THOUGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY MAY RECOVER INTO THE 60S WITH LIGHT
WINDS...EVEN BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST.

WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA...A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE WILL HANG UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S....IT WILL HELP RESHAPE THE PATTERN ALOFT...LEADING
TO A SOUTH WEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
TO THE NORTH EAST. THIS SHOULD...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...LEAD TO
LESS ACTIVE WX FOR THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP MOVING THOUGH...AND WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT EAST ON MONDAY. SFC PRESSURE WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOCALLY BRZY SOUTH EAST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

ONCE THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TRANSITS TEXAS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY. A WEAK SHOT OF MODIFIED PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE DOWN THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED
BETWEEN INBOUND HIGH PRESSURE AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SCA FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE IS IN EFFECT TILL 11AM LOCAL
AND THE GULF WATERS TILL 2PM LOCAL. GRADIENT WEAKENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES LATER
THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
HIGHER THAN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN 15-18 KNOTS FORECAST
CURRENTLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ARRIVE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 20 KTS AND WITH BUILDING SEAS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...BUT STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS A LONG GULF FETCH WILL KEEP SWELLS
MOVING INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM FARTHER OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE MAIN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST...WITH A WEAKER
SOUTHEAST WIND SETTING UP BY SUNDAY. SEAS MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUSTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

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