Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 181759 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR skies and visibility expected to prevail over the
next 24 hours. Breezy SSE winds this afternoon will become light
SE overnight, then increase to around 10 knots again by mid-
morning on Wednesday. Scattered cumulus and perhaps cirrus decks
at times this afternoon with a few low clouds tonight. Winds
should stay up enough to keep fog/mist potential low for the RGV
airports. Outside chance of a brief coastal shower passing near
BRO in the early morning hours Wednesday, but confidence much too
low to include in TAF at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 741 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...Quick update to marine grids for this morning only to
add isolated showers (per recent radar trends) and raise seas in
the outer Gulf waters from 3 to 4 ft., per recent obs from Buoy
42020. No other changes needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Moisture remains trapped in the lower levels this
morning, so daytime CU field will later this morning with cigs
around 3500. Southeast winds will rise to 10 to 15 knots, with
higher speeds noted closer to the coast. CU field will dissipate
again late in the afternoon, with minimal low clouds expected

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday):  The H5 ridge finally begins to
shift away from deep south Texas later today, which will get the
region out from the oppressive late summer heat. Highs today will
again approach 100 degrees, but record highs are not in jeopardy
this time around. Along the surface, southeast flow continues to
bring gulf moisture into the region, providing daytime CU and higher
heat index readings. Heat index values of 104 to 107 are expected
mainly along the river during peak heating hours. With the ridge
shifting east by tonight, cloud cover along the coast will have a
better ability for vertical development. This will bring along a
slight chances of showers offshore tonight. Wednesday, models
indicate a small vort max wrapping around the departing ridge,
pushing inland further up the coast between CRP and Houston. Enough
instability from this feature may be close enough to deep south
Texas for enhancement of the CU field to spark a few tiny showers
during the afternoon. High Wednesday will be slightly lower as the
compressional heating under the ridge departs.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Low to mid level
moisture will pool along and ahead of a cold front moving into
northwest Texas Wed night and central TX Thurs morning. This will
provide a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms across
portions of south TX Thurs afternoon through Thurs evening.
Surface based convection will become elevated Thurs night as the
front moves through the CWA Thurs evening. Cooler and drier air
will filter into deep south TX in the wake of the front Friday as
surface high pressure builds into the state. This will bring an
end to rain chances early Friday. Temperatures will be near normal
Thursday and below normal Friday and Saturday before the surface
ridge across Texas moves eastward and an onshore flow returns by
the end of the weekend into early next week. Moisture is progged
to increase across northeast Mexico into southwest TX towards
the end of the forecast period as a result and this will provide a
slight chance of rain for portions of the CWA Monday.

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): The surface ridge remains
anchored along the northern Gulf coast, keeping the region in
southeasterly flow. Not much change in the gradient seen, so winds
around 10 knots are forecast during the daytime hours, increasing
to around 15 knots overnight. Seas will remain consistently around
3 feet through Wednesday evening.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Light east to southeast winds
Wednesday night will shift to the northeast Thursday and increase
Thurs night as a cold front moves through the coastal waters Thurs
afternoon. Strong northeast winds will develop in the wake of the
front Thurs night and small craft advisories will be needed for
the coastal waters Thurs night into Friday as the pressure
gradient remains strong across the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds
and seas will diminish across the lower Texas coast Fri night into
Saturday as surface high pressure settles across the northwest
Gulf coast and the pressure gradient weakens across the western
Gulf of Mexico.




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