Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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311
FXUS64 KBRO 232256 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
556 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFs the next 24 hours. High pressure is
spreading across the area along with drier air. Thus, clear skies
will prevail tonight and into Monday with light winds. A weak
southeast return flow will develop on Monday as high pressure
shifts east, and moisture will start to recover, but for now there
are no immediate issues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): The late season cold front
that brought us a bit of a cool and cloudy morning has now passed
well south of the RGV. These clouds are rather quickly eroding from
north to south, with a sunny late afternoon expected across Deep
South Texas. Surface high pressure will continue to settle into the
region this evening and overnight bringing clear skies and light to
calm winds. However, it will be the well below normal lows tonight
that will grab everyone`s attention. By Monday morning, temps will
be in the lower to mid 50s for much of the RGV...with upper 50s in
the normally warmer locations to the lower to mid 60s along the
coast and on the Island.

High pressure aloft and at the surface will stick around on Monday,
but the surface system will begin to shift east into the Western
Gulf through the day. As such, light southeast winds will return
through the day. Meanwhile, dry air and subsidence will allow
temperatures to rebound quickly, and highs Monday afternoon will be
back into the mid 80s east to near 90 degrees west. By the evening,
winds will increase as the high pressure now in the Gulf begins to
interact with a developing SOuthern Plains storm system. Meanwhile,
a weak short wave will move through the areas Monday night, bringing
an increase in clouds.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): The main issue during the
long term portion of the forecast will be wind. High pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico will interact intensely with a series of low
pressure systems that will march through the Central Plains during
the period. A Wind Advisory may be needed for the central and
eastern portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, and then Friday night
through Saturday night. The most relaxed wind conditions will
occur around the middle of the week due to the intrusion of a weak
cold front. A nearly zonal flow will produce dry weather through
the forecast period, with the onshore flow providing well above
normal temperatures, both during the daytime and at night.

MARINE (Now through Monday Night): Buoy 42020 is reporting north
winds of near 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Seas remain elevated
near 8 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in place for the offshore
Gulf water through 6 PM. The surface high pressure system moving
into the Lower Texas Coastal waters will settle across the region
this evening. Winds and seas will continue to subside through the
late afternoon and early evening hours. Current thinking is that the
seas should come down enough by the time the advisory ends, however
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution will be needed tonight. An
excellent marine forecast is expected for much of Monday as the the
high pressure moves east into the Western Gulf. Light and variable
winds in the morning will become southeasterly through the day, with
seas around 2 feet. However, the gradient will begin to strengthen
Monday night as the surface high moves further east and begins to
interact with a developing low pressure system across the Southern
Plains.

Tuesday through Sunday: Small Craft Advisory winds and/or seas
will prevail for the Lower Texas coastal waters through a majority
of the forecast period. These adverse conditions will mainly be
the result of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting
intensely with a series of low pressure systems in the Central
Plains.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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