Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 171951
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
251 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM:(Now through Saturday night):
More of the same in store for the short-term...with breezy, humid
conditions and both daily max and min temperatures running 6-8F
above seasonal norms. On the synoptic scale, upper- level ridge
and surface high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern.
Moisture will be confined to the lowest 4000 ft. or so, with
precipitable water values correspondingly only around 0.9-1.0
inches.

For tonight, breezy to gusty conditions currently observed (mainly
east of Hwy. 281) will settle down shortly after sunset.  Partly
cloudy skies will develop after midnight, with morning low temps
generally in the mid-upper 60s (around 70 at the beaches).  Reduced
these morning lows a couple of degrees for the populated RGV per
latest guidance.  A moderate risk of rip currents continues, due to
elevated wind waves in the surf zone, though tonight, with a Rip
Current Statement in effect to highlight potential impacts to the
Spring Break crowds on South Padre Island.  Patchy fog also possible
late for portions of the northern Ranchlands where wind speeds
become lighter and better cooling takes place.

No big changes for Saturday, though it appears that a weakness in
the mid-level flow, evident on WV imagery in the Chihuahua/Durango/Coahuila
junction area, will drift eastward over the area. This sets up a
"mini-Rex block" with ridging over North Texas providing light
easterly flow at mid-levels. Various models (and WPC) want to spit
out light QPF for Saturday afternoon over the northern
Ranchlands. Even if the mid-level weakness enhances the sea-breeze
effect, just can`t see any measurable precip falling as the
moisture depth will be way too shallow. Will put a slight chance
of "sprinkles" during the afternoon in the grids (centered around
Brooks County) at any rate. Feel that 12Z MOS temps came in a bit
too warm for Saturday (e.g., MET showing 87F for BRO), so ended up
not changing inherited values much at all. Breezy SE winds will
again occur, especially in the afternoon, but not as strong as
today. Should be another great day at the beach with lots of sun
in the afternoon with temps in the upper 70s. Expecting Sunday
morning`s low temps to be similar to Saturday`s, again under
partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday):The High pressure ridge that has
been dominating for the last several days is shown by the latest
model package to remain intact and over Texas through at least
Thursday. This will maintain the dry and warm spell with the well
above normal temperatures and nil rain chances. Moisture to remain
shallow with mean RH AOB 850mb at around 80 percent while the
overall moisture content through the atmospheric column continues
very low with PWATS below one inch or in the lowest 25 percentile
range. The drier air and modest southeast winds should keep
temperatures right about 4 to 8 degrees above normal but with the
driest days Monday and Tuesday we could see temperatures peak 8 to
12 degrees above or upper 80s to mid 90s locations along and west
of 69E. Anyway you look at it the last week of "Solar/Calender"
Winter will end just like it has been all season.

Then finally a Western low pressure trough makes its way into the
Desert Southwest later Thursday then into Texas and the Plains
next Friday. Models have been somewhat inconsistent with the
timing but this might be the beginning of a series of troughs
advancing through the CONUS as the dominate ridge begins to show
signs of breaking down. As the troughs accompanying cold front
moves into Central Texas low level moisture eventually deepens
increasing the chance of rain. Will go ahead and introduce slight
chance pops next Friday with little to no significant drop in
temperatures until we see the development of this system.

&&

.MARINE:(Now through Saturday Night): Small Craft Advisory for the
Laguna Madre until 7pm looks to be in good shape, per available obs.
Latest report from Buoy020 indicates SSE winds at 15-18 knots with
combined seas of 5.6 feet, so have continued SCEC for the Gulf
waters following the expiration of the SCA at 1pm.  Pressure
gradient already starting to weaken as SE CONUS surface high builds
westward into NW Gulf, so light to moderate SE winds will be the
rule over the Lower Texas Coastal Waters from this evening onward.
Gulf seas subside to around 4 ft. by early Saturday morning with
little change thereafter. No additional SCEC/SCA anticipated.

Sunday through Wednesday...A moderate southeast wind and sea
regime is likely to persist through the middle of next week as
broad high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain its
grip over the Gulf of Mexico. Little variation in day to day
weather pattern will allow for the onshore flow to persist with no
small craft advisories anticipated to develop at this time. Winds
and seas may increase next Thursday as a low pressure trough
develops over the Desert Southwest eventually moving into West
Texas Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  82  67  84 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          68  83  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            66  85  66  87 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN              67  87  68  88 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  89  66  90 /   0   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  77  69  77 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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