Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 170545 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Low clouds will remain minimal overnight, restricted
to the Gulf waters regions. An area of midlevel clouds is
spreading northeastward currently, which will only dim the full
moon. Winds will remain light form the southeast overnight. Winds
will only gradually increase during the day Monday, reaching 10
to 15 knots during the afternoon. Daytime CU field will again
develop later in the morning, but cigs will remain around 4000


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Strong and large scale high pressure over Texas will
continue to provide vfr conditions across all of the Rio Grande
Valley air terminal sites through Monday. Some short-lived patchy
mvfr cigs or vsbys might develop over the Northern Ranchlands
around sunrise Monday otherwise the rest of Deep South Texas will
also remain VFR Winds will continue. Light Southeast expected tonight
with some moderate gusts Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): 500 mb ridging will
remain entrenched over the RGV throughout tomorrow night
maintaining dry and stable conditions over the area. The abundant
sunshine in combination with the dry soil conditions and the
pretty elevated 1000-500 mb thickness values will set the stage
for another round of well above normal temperatures tomorrow. So
far today the near record or record breaking high temps expected
this afternoon appear to be verifying pretty well. So expect
forecast highs to push back close to records again on Monday. The
latest NAM/GFS and ECMWF forecast temp guidance is in good
agreement through Monday night. So will go close to a model blend
throughout the short term.

Light surface winds across the northern counties will combine
with the fairly high surface dewpoints and generally clear skies
to allow for some patchy ground fog formation late tonight through
early Monday morning. MAV and MET guidance for Hebbronville and
Falfurrias both indicate a brief window of some reduced vsbys here
overnight. So will maintain a mention of some patchy fog mainly
across Brooks and Jim Hogg counties.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): Unseasonably warm and dry
weather will kick off the long term period and will persist into
Wednesday as mid level ridging will remain parked aloft and high
pressure stays over the Northwest Gulf. An H5 trough will move
into the high plains Tuesday night into Wednesday with a building
ridge over the Pacific Northwest increasing underlying maritime
polar high pressure like mercury rising in a thermometer. The high
pressure will spill southeast on Wednesday and will push into
Texas in advance of the ridge.

Some moisture will continue to be drawn north along the coast to
provide coastal shower activity Wednesday night, but low to mid
level moisture will also pool along and ahead of the front moving
into North Texas Wednesday night, increasing Thursday before the
front moves through the CWA during the day. The recognizable front
will support a chance of showers and a slight chance of tstms
across the area Thursday. A slight chance of showers will linger
Thursday night before drier and cooler air filters into deep South
Texas in the wake of the front. Temps will then be much more
seasonable from Thursday through Sunday.

Now through Monday night...Surface ridging over the Gulf of
Mexico will maintain a pretty steady but light southeasterly
surface flow over the Lower Texas Bay and Gulf waters through
tomorrow night. This flow pattern will maintain light to moderate
Bay conditions with Gulf swells ranging from 1 to 3 feet. No SCA
conditions expected in the short term.

Tuesday through Friday...Moderate southeast winds will prevail
Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure remains over the
Northwest Gulf. Wave heights will be low to moderate with an
easterly swell component. The leading edge of a cold front will
push into North Texas on Wednesday night, and winds will veer to
east as the gradient weakens and upstream high pressure flattens
the pressure field. Winds will shift to north Thursday morning,
and will increase through the day behind the front, reaching small
craft advisory criteria by Thursday evening as the tightest
portion of the gradient moves over the coast. Strong north winds
will then persist through Friday. Wave heights will build to nine
feet offshore most of Friday, and will outlast winds in SCA
territory, as winds will decrease below 20 knots late Friday
evening while seas will hang on above seven feet offshore until
some time Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany
the front as it moves through.




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