Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 310540
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT WILL REMAIN VFR WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE AERODROMES FROM TIME TO TIME. MONDAY WILL BE A
CHALLENGE DUE TO EXPECTED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND MID MORNING AND SHIFT
WESTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST TIMING WILL
BE 16-20Z AT BRO AND HRL AND 18-22Z AT MFE. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CONDS AND POSSIBLY LOWER IN HEAVIER CONVECTION. CONDS WILL GET
BETTER BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONDS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CIRRUS DEBRIS REMAINS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
CONCORDANT RAMPING UP OF POPS AND...WITH DAY 2 GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWAT WILL EDGE
BACK UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF AN
ELLIPSE OF H5 LOWER HEIGHTS POSITIONED OVER THE CWA. SEA BREEZE
WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH SLOWLY MOVING TROPICAL TYPE
STORMS RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN MAKING POTENTIAL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE ELONGATED 500MB
LOW/TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINSIHING SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE GFS
INDICATING A BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THE MODELS
ARE BETTER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY ALOFT AND INCREASED MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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