Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 242333 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
533 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO REMAIN VFR. STREAMING
HIGH CLOUDS TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN TO OCCASIONALLY OVC CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS AOB 20K FEET. CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AFTER A RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD CHILLY (AND DAMP) FIRST HALF OF JANUARY...THE SECOND HALF
CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE ROSY...SAVE FOR A BRIEF BUMP IN THE ROAD
TO RECOVERY WITH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY`S CHILL. IF YOU LIKE
CIRRUS CLOUDS...YOU`LL LOVE THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THERE WILL BE
PLENTY FLOATING BY AND FOR OCCASIONAL PERIODS FILTERING THE
SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE...IF YOU LIKE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...YOU`RE IN FOR A TREAT.

UPPER LOW WINDING AROUND OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN THE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO SEE BRIGHTER STARS AND THE
WAXING CRESCENT MOON.  THE CIRRUS CANOPY AND JUST A TOUCH OF
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
FREEZING.  MOST POPULATED AREAS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
40 THOUGH PREFERRED COLDER POCKETS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WHEN SEVERAL RURAL
LOCATIONS TOUCHED 32 DEGREES.

IF YOU LIKED TODAY BUT FELT IT WAS STILL A TOUCH CHILLY...YOU`LL
LOVE SUNDAY.  MODIFYING ATMOSPHERE AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE 70...RIGHT ON
THE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. NEAR THE COAST A SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM AND COULD PLUNGE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER
60S BASED ON MID 50S SURF TEMPERATURE AND ASSUMED UPPER 50S NEAR
SHORE TEMPERATURES OVER SLIGHTLY DEEPER WATER.

MUCH OF THE ABOVE WAS THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND DEVELOPING
INTO A FAIRLY ROBUST...HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH AS IT CRUISES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE...PROBABLY AIDED BY THE
BUCKLING PATTERN THAT BUILDS A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THESE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES WILL BOTH DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AND STRENGTHEN A
REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
RETURN OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON LAND AND SOME REDUCTION OF CIRRUS
MAY BRING EVEN COLDER LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING THAN ADVERTISED...FOR
NOW HAVE LOWERED IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RANGES THROUGH
THE 40S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV.  MORE IMPACT WILL BE
FELT FOR BOATERS...SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROFFING REMAINS CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EASTERN STATES. ALSO TO THE WEST A SERIES OF 500 MB BAJA LOWS WILL
IMPACT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
EASTERN AND WEST COAST TROFFING WILL BE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY
WARM THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DECENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLY
HELPING THE HIGH TEMPS ALONG. LATE NEXT WEEK THE LAST IN THE
SERIES OF BAJA LOWS WILL OPEN UP AND START PUSHING EAST TOWARDS
TX. SOME DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE STARTS TO ADVECT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH FRI AND SAT. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20/30% POPS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE BULK
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
RIDGING.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE 500 MB FIELDS REMAIN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THROUGH THURS WITH SOME BIGGER DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP FOR FRI AND SAT ESPECIALLY IN THE HANDLING OF THE BAJA
LOW CONFIGURATIONS OVER THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
PRETTY HIGH IN THE LONGER RANGE TEMPS AND POPS AS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS NUMBERS IS PRETTY STABLE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BEHAVING AS FORECAST
AND ARE QUICKLY HEADED TOWARD THE LIGHT/SLIGHT RANGE AS THE FIRST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS SETTLES IN. IF YOU`VE GOT SUNDAY
FISHING PLANS...FROM THE LAGUNA MADRE TO WELL OFFSHORE...YOU`LL
HAVE SOME OF THE QUIETEST CONDITIONS YOU CAN SEE THIS TIME OF
YEAR. GRAB A JACKET FOR THE CHILLY MORNING AND TAKE ADVANTAGE.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
ATMOSPHERIC `BUCKLING` BRINGS AN INCREASING GRADIENT FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WEST TO TEXAS...WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
RIDGE...PERHAPS EDGING ALL THE WAY TO 1030 MB...MOVING INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EARLIER QUIET FORECAST NOW IN
JEOPARDY AND AT MINIMUM FOR THE GULF BEYOND 20 NM WE`LL LIKELY SEE
CAUTION WINDS...NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUCH WINDS COULD EXTEND BACK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH WINDS CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS
LAGUNA MADRE.  WINDS OFF THE SURFACE SHARPEN UP AS WELL...REACHING
40 TO 45 KNOTS AT FIVE THOUSAND FEET BEYOND 20 NM OUT.  LACK OF
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PRECLUDE FULL MIXING...BUT WARMER WATERS
WILL HELP.  BOTTOM LINE?  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS BEYOND
20 NM OUT REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING MONDAY...WITH LAGUNA MADRE WINDS PROBABLY HOLDING AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS.

AS FOR SEAS...ENOUGH LAND COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP RISES DOWN NEAR THE
COAST.  A DIFFERENT STORY OFFSHORE...FOR NOW HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP
INCREASE TO 4 FEET BEYOND 40 NM OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE 5 OR EVEN 6 FEET WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE OUT
THERE.  STAY TUNED.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE TX COASTLINE EXPECT
FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS ON THURS
RAISING UP WINDS AND SEAS A BIT. HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  42  69  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          42  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            41  71  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              42  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      40  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   47  68  54  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM





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