Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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017
FXUS64 KBRO 092059
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS WILL BE COOL AGAIN AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS LIFTS OUT BY WED INTO THU WHILE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO KEEPING A SE FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST INCREASING SE WINDS THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING WINDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW
HALF INCH AND MEAN RH NO HIGHER THAN 32 PERCENT. INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH STILL ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED BUT WIL MAINLY INCREASE THE CU FIELD ALONG
THE COAST AT THE MOST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA AND NEAR MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT
RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S.

RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BLOCKING A STRONG CANADIAN BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS IT IS
SHIFTED INTO THE SE PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN EAST
AND SOUTHEAST KEEPING S TEXAS ON THE WARMER AIR MASS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST AND SURGE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 70 PERCENT WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE WED
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
INCREASING WINDS AND AGITATING SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCEC OVER THE GULF. THE NEXT ROUND OF HIGHER
WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EAST COAST. THE SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
POSSIBLE HIGH END SCEC LEVEL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS PLEASANT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  45  75  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          42  77  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            44  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              47  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      43  81  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   49  69  58  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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