Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 230917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
317 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY BRINGING DRIER
AIR INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES AS WELL AS KENEDY
COUNTY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT BUT REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWS MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE EXTENDING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN REGION OF TEXAS. THIS WILL MAINLY PROVIDE
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 40S.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE 70S AS MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED. STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST CONTINUING THE
SAME WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH THE
WARMEST DAY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TOWARDS
THE EAST RETURNING THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
RETURNING TO THE MID TO LOW 50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE
NORTH REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN CA AND BAJA CA COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
INCREASING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTER ALOFT INCREASING THE
DIFFLUENT PATTERN. PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SOUTH TX WHILE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN REGION OF TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE THE ADDITION OF POPS STARTING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REACHING NORTHERN TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE THIS
FRONT ARRIVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 8 FEET WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 21 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE
SCA FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AND GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IF GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED ACROSS ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. THE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN A RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NO SCA OR SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
GULF STRENGTHENS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN NO MORE
THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL ONLY BRING SEAS
TO BUILD CLOSE TO 3 FEET AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASE AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  55  41  63  45 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          56  40  64  44 /  20  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            56  39  65  43 /  20  10   0   0
MCALLEN              58  39  66  43 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      58  37  66  42 /  20   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   55  46  62  48 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-170.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ155-175.

&&

$$

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