Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 190537 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1237 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies with light and variable winds
prevail across deep south Texas early this morning. High
pressure and dry air aloft will maintain VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours. Southerly winds will develop later this morning
becoming southeast and gusty this afternoon. Winds are expected
to become light and variable again later this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Afternoon CU field is now dissipating this
evening...with only a few high clouds noted. Winds will shift to
the south overnight or generally become light and variable. High
pressure and dry air aloft will keep VFR conditions in
place...with winds backing to the SE by Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night):
The core of an H5 ridge centered nearly overhead will shift
slightly west through the short term, but its broad spread will
still cover the CWA, and the mid levels will remain dry. This will
result in continued above average temperatures and generally rain-
free conditions across the area. Will still see some low, marine
source clouds moving in prior to dawn Mon and Tue mornings, but
those will dissipate or scatter as the morning progresses. A few
coastal low CU will develop late Monday morning to early afternoon
along a weak sea breeze, but skies will remain on the sunnier side
of the mix. Reinforcing high pressure will move out over the
Northwest Gulf on Monday, bringing a subtle backing of winds late
Mon into Mon night, through wind strength will remain light. Look
for mercury readings in the mid to upper 70s at night, and in the
90s to near the century mark for daytime readings. Heat index
values to near 108 degrees will be possible during the afternoon.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): During midweek, the H5 ridge
gets nudged northward as the pesky cutoff low that has been
lurking off the Louisiana Coast finally gets absorbed into a
westward passing inverted trough, finally passing into north
Mexico. The trough will pass close enough to the region that the
instability and deeper moisture with it will bring a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms each day Wednesday through
Friday. Longer range models show the moisture remaining in pace
over the weekend, while the trough continues to the east and weak
ridging tries to return. Models are having issues locking down on
smaller features for next weekend, but currently looks that
seabreeze will still be active for the weekend.

Now through Monday night...Reinforcing high pressure will move out
over the Northwest Gulf starting tonight, shifting winds to
northeast and east. Winds will remain light to moderate with low to
moderate seas through the short term.


.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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