Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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545
FXUS64 KBRO 160539 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP OVER THE AERODROMES
RIGHT NOW WITH CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 2K FEET DEVELOPING AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. VFR WILL RESUME AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. LOWER STRATUS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING MVFR BACK TO THE AERODROMES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...LAPS CAPE VALUES <1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE BRO
CWA INDICATE THAT THE ATMS HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE CONV
THAT HAS MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. ACCORDINGLY HAVE
ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AND HAVE UPDATED
THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING TO MENTION ONLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD CONV THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DRIFT SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CURRENTLY TSRA IN KMFE AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF KHRL.
CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE STORMS STAYING AWAY FROM KBRO...BUT WILL
NOTE A BRIEF WIND CHANGE AND GUSTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
EVENING. TSRA WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SELY FLOW
RETURNING AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS FORECAST TOMORROW WITH 15G25KTS EXPECTED. MORNING CIGS
WILL LIFT LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE
BURNING OFF UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES IN JUST BEFORE NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS TAPPING AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE
/PW 1.9 INCHES/ AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED REGIONS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE LOWER VALLEY COUNTIES WHERE
LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SEEN THIS WEEK. WITH CONTINUING
BACKBUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH HIDALGO COUNTY AND INTO NORTH
MEXICO...THUNDERSTORM OPPORTUNITY REMAINS HIGH FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED INUNDATING RAINFALL THIS WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION
TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AREAWIDE FOR SATURDAY. WILL WITH NO POPS FOR TOMORROW...WHILE
HIGHS REACH NEAR MOS GUIDANCE AROUND 90.

MARINE...
MAIN MARINE THREAT IS THE ADVANCING SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE NW
MARINE ZONES. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CROSS
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SQUALL LINE AND KEEP A SAFE
HARBOR WITHIN REACH FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 15 KNOTS...WITH SEAS ON THE GULF AROUND 5 FEET. AGITATED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH SE WINDS 15 TO 20
AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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