Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 111857
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
157 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WEAK
500MB RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TX. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST TX SAT NIGHT
AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
850-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. NAM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURE WISE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH BLEND OF ADJUSTED MET/MAV
MOS FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...EMPHASIS WILL BE PLACED ON
MONDAY`S FRONT AND THE SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS. SOURCE REGION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH IS CENTRAL CANADA. A 1030MB DROPS OUT OF OUR NORTHERN
NEIGHBOR AND SLIDES DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE COLD AIR
SPILLS INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN IT FORWARD PROGRESS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS BUT HAS STAY SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT FROM THE LAST NIGHTS
RUN. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER BEGAN TO TREND LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY TUE
AND WED AM.

BREEZY AND WARM SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE A BIT MORE WITH A LATER
AFTERNOON COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 850MB TEMPS FROM THE 12Z GFS RUN ARE
PUSHING 22C ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS PUSHES SFC TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 90S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT OF THE WARMER MODEL TREND. AS MENTIONED RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
THE SAME MONDAY AS BEST LIFT AND DIVERGENT FLOW REMAINS NORTH OF OUR
CWA WITH A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH NE TEXAS AND ARKANSAS
THE SHARP FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A LINE OR CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES INTO HIGH PWATS OF AROUND 1.80
INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SPC KEEPS THE STRONGEST STORMS WELL
NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTION DISTURBANCE AND
BETTER DIVERGENT FLOW. LATE LOOK AT ECMWF INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER AND TRACKING FARTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER THEN THE GFS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS
TREND CONTINUE TO LINGER RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY.

SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTH
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
WITH MID 50S DOWN SOUTH. NORTH WINDS AND DRY AIR TUESDAY TO PROVIDE
AN OPTIMAL BUT COOL DAY FOR SOUTH TEXAS STANDARDS IN MID APRIL. HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE ALONG THE COASTAL BEND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
BUT COULD SEE THEM BEING LOWERED A FEW MORE DEGREES IF THIS TRENDS
IS MAINTAINED.  THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD TRACK WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR EVENTUALLY INCREASE.


&&

.MARINE....SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WEAK 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TX. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST TX SAT NIGHT AND A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST IN
RESPONSE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
850-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. NAM AND
GFS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURE WISE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH BLEND OF ADJUSTED MET/MAV
MOS FOR TEMPS.


/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AS SEAS REALIZE THEIR MAXIMUM WITH THE LONG SOUTHEAST
FETCH. WINDS TO BEGIN TO SLOWER LATER MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DEVELOPING. 1028MB HIGH FROM CANADA TO SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE NECESSARY WITH EVEN A SHORT DURATION OF GALE CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT AS WIND GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW IN
MOVE SOUTHEAST MAINTAINING STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY
WITH MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  72  82 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          69  84  72  84 /   0  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            69  85  72  86 /   0  10  20  10
MCALLEN              69  87  73  89 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  92  72  94 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  77  71  78 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM





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