Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 280936
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
436 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN TX BY
FRI. THE APPROACH OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO TX TONIGHT AND FRI WHICH WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE
PGF INCREASING THE S-SE SURFACE WINDS. THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE 500 MB RIDGING THAT BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEX WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. THE MET
TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PERFORM SOMEWHAT POORLY WITH THE CURRENT
WX REGIME OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINS A PRETTY COOL BIAS VERSUS THE
MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB
CLOSED LOW REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED WITH SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION RETURNING STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS. SO CONSIDERING
THE COMBINATION OF THE FAR NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW AND THE PRETTY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL GO WITH ONLY SILENT 10 % POPS THROUGH FRI.

THE LATEST TCEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST PLACES THE RGV IN THE CATEGORY
OF "UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" DUE TO THE ONGOING AG FIRES
BURNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THE SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE RGV DEGRADING THE
AIR QUALITY. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HAZE ON THROUGH TODAY
AND FRI. LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE HAZE
WILL THEN MIX WITH FOG AS THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD NARROWS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT 500MB LOW DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SATURDAY...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST MID LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER POPS ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PGF WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE TODAY AND FRI AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL START TO PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS CLOSE
TO SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD BY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  78  89  78 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          89  78  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            92  77  94  77 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              95  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  77 101  76 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  78  84  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58



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