Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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429
FXUS64 KBRO 240942
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
442 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): 500 mb ridging will continue
to dominate the south central plains states through Wed. A strong
500 mb closed low will dig down over the western states. This in
addition to the formation of another mid level closed low over the
upper Midwest will strengthen a series of surface lows over the
central plains states. This will tighten up the pgf over RGV
increasing the s-se surface flow. The 00z BRO sounding shows a more
stable and drier atms in place over the area with a MUCAPE of 2592
j/kg with a PWAT of 1.8 inches. So the persistent mid level ridging
will limit the conv potential through Wed. The NAM tries to bump up
the pops for Wed to around slgt chc while the GFS and ECMWF guidance
holds the pops to the single digits. See no reason why the NAM is
increasing the pops for Wednesday so will go with the single digits
through the short term period.

Mid and High level cld cover yesterday held down the afternoon high
temps a bit. Numerical guidance is holding the temps near
persistence through the short term. Will nudge up the high temps a
few degrees over today and Wed as expect the stronger more southerly
flow may increase the high temps a bit due to more downsloping off
of the higher terrain in NE Mexico.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the entire
long term forecast period. This convection will be the result of
mid-level disturbances riding over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley within a persistent west-southwest to east-northeast
flow. With deep troughiness prevailing over the western United
States, most of the expected convection will likely originate over
the neighboring high terrain of Mexico before advecting into the
BRO CWFA. These showers and thunderstorms will need to be monitored
for strong to severe intensity given similar convective trends over
the past few weeks.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy020 reports a SSE wind
around 16 knots with swells around 4 ft with MTRPIL reporting a SE
wind around 7 knots. The pgf will remain moderate to strong over
the bay and gulf waters through Wed which will keep the winds and
seas near SCEC territory.

Wednesday night through Monday: Small Craft Advisory winds and/or
seas continue to be anticipated through a majority of the period
with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low
pressure over the Central Plains and thermal low pressure over
northern Mexico. Marine conditions will gradually improve during
the weekend and by the end of the forecast period, with moderate
winds and seas expected, as the center of surface high pressure
shifts closer to the Lower Texas Coast.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  89  78 /  10   0  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  79  91  77 /  10   0  10  20
HARLINGEN            93  79  94  78 /  10   0  10  20
MCALLEN              95  78  96  78 /  10   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  78 100  78 /  10   0  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  80  84  79 /  10   0  10  20
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Speece-60
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Birchfield-65



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