Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 250844
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
344 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...

RELEVANT FEATURES... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST OVER THE COUNTRY AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. TROUGHING
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS RIPPLE IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB
AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH HIGHER 850/925MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA PER GOES SOUNDERS
AND AMSU/SSMI IMAGERY.

TODAY... MOISTURE STREAMING IN ON INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER
TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT BE RICH ENOUGH IN THE MORNING
HOURS TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND A STRONG RESIDUAL
INVERSION AT AROUND 2500 FT SHOULD KEEP DEEPER CONVECTION AT BAY.

TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR FOG...BUT
MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WOULD PRIME TWO OUT OF THE
THREE NEEDED RADIATION FOG INGREDIENTS SO WILL BE WORTH WATCHING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH WEDNESDAYS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AT LEAST SOME OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. HELD
RAIN CHANCES OFF EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE DEEPER FRONTAL
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING GOING.

THURSDAY...DEEPER UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY HELPING A COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES ON LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
PRECIP WILL VERY LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES AND
BEGINS TO CUT THROUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA. MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT PER GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND A POST-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND
CONTINUED THAT IN THE FORECAST. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 50
PERCENT WHICH SHOULD BE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED
AND SEMI/CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP AS MOISTURE IN THE LAYER
OVERRUNNING THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED WHICH WOULD CUT
DOWN ON STRATIFORM RAIN COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALREADY SOMEWHAT DEPRESSED OVER WED
BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
DOWN INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP BY THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BE ENDING...AS COOLER AIR STABILIZES THE LOWER LEVELS
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. FORECAST PWAT DROPS FROM 1.72 INCHES
THURSDAY AFTN TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE QUICK CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT...AS UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS
IN...WITH CLEARER SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STILL IN THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A RADIATIVELY COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S. FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS HIGH PRESSURE MODIFIES
AND WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL DRIVE THE SEASONAL WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND IN PLAY.

STARTING SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THENCE CONTINUING EAST
ASHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BY MONDAY RESIDING OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM CONDITIONS TO
WHERE...WHEN COMBINED WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND...WE COULD
SEE SOME COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN UPPER MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WELL. THE
FEATURE WILL FURTHER OPEN UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY THEN A DRY WEST NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY... RELATIVELY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS PERSISTING. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AMID LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY LIKELY LEADING TO MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AMID GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND ROUGHENING
SEAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS DECREASING BELOW 20 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SEAS DECREASING BELOW SEVEN FEET FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL OCCUR WITH AND AFTER THE FRONT
THURSDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE BY SUNDAY. LOW SEAS WILL
PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE ON SUNDAY DUE TO LONGER PERIOD SWELLS ARRIVING FROM FARTHER
OUT IN THE GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  67  75  59 /   0  10  50  20
BROWNSVILLE          81  68  78  58 /   0  10  50  20
HARLINGEN            83  67  78  57 /   0  10  50  20
MCALLEN              85  69  79  56 /   0  10  60  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  68  76  55 /   0  10  60  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  67  73  60 /   0  10  50  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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