Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251733
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FIELD OF CU PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT
LOCAL TERMINALS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN EFFECT AT MFE RIGHT NOW WITH
LOWERED STRATUS WAFTING UP FROM THE SOUTH. BRO AND HRL WILL HAVE
THE CHANCE FOR MVFR WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS HEADING
NORTH OVERHEAD. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITH RISING CLOUD
DECKS AND MODERATE WINDS...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RE-DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...STILL NO OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD COURTESY OF DOMINANT 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE AND EXTENDED OVER THE BRO
CWFA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE REGION HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS PER OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS
.AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...500 MB RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND GENERALLY RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE INHERITED
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES...MID TO UPPER 90S NEAR THE COAST
AND 100 TO 105 MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-69C/US HWY 281
CORRIDOR UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE 500 MB PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE BY LATE WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES NORTHWEST AND A MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACHING OVER 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH A MORE ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO
BREEZY WINDS OVER THE BAY. OTHERWISE...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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