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000
FXUS64 KBRO 171728 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Breezy winds continue through this afternoon with VFR
predominant over the next 24 hours. Can`t rule out fleeting MVFR
ceilings at any of the three airports overnight (as has occurred
the past couple of nights), especially with a modest increase in
lower-level atmospheric moisture expected after midnight. However,
confidence is low on duration of any CIG and statistical guidance
is really downplaying. More moderate SE winds in store from mid-
morning on Friday and beyond due to a relaxed pressure gradient
with surface high pressure extending over much of the Gulf of
Mexico.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
some high clouds across the coastal sections of the CWA this
morning with some patchy low clouds across the area. Ceilings were
near 2600ft at KEBG. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the
Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands today as the 500mb
subtropical ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and south Texas
continues to provide subsidence across the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb subtropical ridge across
the Gulf of Mexico and south Texas will continue to provide
subsidence across the CWA the next couple of days. Breezy
conditions will prevail across the coastal sections this afternoon
before the pressure gradient weakens across the lower TX coast
Friday. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the lower
TX coast Friday. This will provide some isolated convection across
the coastal sections Friday. Will go with persistence for
temperatures today through Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): While the first half
of the long term forecast period will feature 500 mb high pressure
dominating over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, the
second half will feature an inverted 500 mb trough that will
approach from the east and then over the BRO CWFA. Precipitation
chances will be limited to most of the adjacent coastal waters
from Friday night through Sunday night, but will then expand to
include the eastern portion of the BRO CWFA for the remainder of
the forecast as the inverted trough approaches and moves overhead.
It is possible that future forecasts may reflect a higher chance
of rain in association with the trough if precipitable water
values increase more than currently progged by model guidance.
Unfortunately, the current isolated nature of convection and
generally limited cloud cover will allow temperatures to reach
well above normal levels.

MARINE (Today through Friday): Seas were near 6 feet with south
winds near 18 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Moderate
southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters today with
surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will be
slightly higher across the bay waters this afternoon so will word
SCEC for the Laguna Madre. The pressure gradient will weaken across
the western Gulf of Mexico Friday. Light to moderate southeast winds
will prevail across the lower Texas coast Friday.

Friday Night through Wednesday: Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas continue to be anticipated during the long term
portion of the marine forecast. These conditions will be due to
surface high pressure remaining generally centered over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico and extended over the Lower Texas
coastal waters.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

53-Schroeder/52