Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 151737 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1137 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
clear skies across the CWA late this morning. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern
ranchlands this afternoon into this evening as surface high
pressure across west Texas this afternoon continues to build into
south TX today.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 519 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...VFR conditions to prevail today with some mid to high
level clouds streaming across at times. Northwest winds to gusts
near 25 knots at time this morning with lowering and less frequent
gusts this afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Mid level ridge will
continue to build over South Texas today and Thursday as upstream
trough deepens significantly as it dives south across NW Mexico.
Surface high pressure over New Mexico and West Texas this morning
builds into South Texas today and tonight and steadily moves east
Thursday. This will maintain a cool and dry Northwest flow today
with temperatures only recovering into the mid to upper 60s. High
pressure builds over South Texas tonight with a clear and cool
night in store with model guidance suggesting 40s for all areas
with exception to the immediate coast where lower 50s prevail.
Thursday will be the transition day with the surface ridge moving
east and winds turning east to southeast. Temperatures recover
into the low to mid 70s but with the light nature of return flow
humidity to remain on the lower side. A gradual increase in mid
and high level cloudiness is expected through the day as next
upstream mid level trough digs into NW Mexico. If the clouds
thicken up more than expected this may limit the afternoon
LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): The H5 trough ejects
across Texas Thursday night into Friday, with good midlevel
dynamics, but no surface focusing mechanism. Thus only isolated to
widely scattered showers are expected going into the weekend.
Brief H5 ridging sets up for Saturday, with mostly clear skies
and temperatures jumping into the upper 80s. Skies will become
more cloudy on Sunday as the next larger H5 trough moves east
across northern Mexico. Models indicating a widespread rain event
Sunday night through Tuesday morning when the center of the H5
trough finally moves just east of our region. Model consistency
has been fairly reasonable, so will continue with good chance pops
for the first half of next week.
Now through Thursday: Center of high pressure remains west
of the coast until this evening. This will maintain a moderately
strong northwest to north wind with seas expected to build another
foot or two. Small craft advisories have been extended through the
morning as a result. As the surface ridge spreads over South Texas
and the Western Gulf later today and tonight winds and seas will
begin to lower. The ridge moves east Thursday with a slow return of
light east to southeast winds. Seas will steadily subside tonight
becoming slight Thursday.
Friday through Sunday: Light to moderate southeast flow will
continue through the entire upcoming weekend with high pressure to
the east. Winds will start the weekend 5 to 10 knots before
increasing to 15 to 20 later Sunday afternoon. Seas will thusly
begin the weekend around 2 feet before increasing to 5 to 7 feet
Fire weather...Dewpoints are rather low this morning and will
continue to drop through the afternoon lowering relative humidity
values into the 20 to 45 percent range. Northwest winds remain gusty
this morning but are expected to slowly diminish through the
afternoon. This will raise the fire danger threat but with winds
expected to diminish as the relative humidity reaches its minimums
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected to be met at this
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until noon CST today for GMZ130-
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ170-
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ150-155.
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