Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

285
FXUS64 KBRO 031015
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
415 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST IR SATELLITE AND
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
60 TO 70% AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THE MID TO
LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 40S WEST OF HWY 69C. THE LARGE
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PRD BRINGING REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. AS MIXING STARTS ABUNDANT DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL KEEP A CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE CWA. 850 MB
TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO
LOWER WITH CAA OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW 40S ALONG THE RGV AND UPPER 30S NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS UNDER ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE IN THE EVENING AND REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG THE
COAST AND EVEN LESS FURTHER INLAND.

ANOTHER REINFORCING HIGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE WHICH WILL AID FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WITH CLEAR SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AFTER THE THURSDAY
TROUGH SWEEPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A WEAK H5
TROUGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...KEEPING DRIER AIR IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK ON THE NEXT
TROUGH...MOVING IN SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF TEXAS. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST...WINDS ALOFT SHIFT BACK TO THE NW...BRINGING A
REINFORCING PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS
REINFORCEMENT DOES NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WITH IT...AND
ANY SE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN...RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SUSPECT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
REDUCING POPS...WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO REPEATS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND N TEXAS...WITH NWLY FLOW
BEHIND IT REINFORCING THE DRY AIR. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
INTO A MUCH LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NNW...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP A STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER
THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. N 20 KNOT WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT SEAS BUILD ABOVE 6
AND 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF STARTING AT 15Z
THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT A CONTINUATION OF MIXING WILL MAINTAIN 20
KNT WIND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP 8 FEET KEEPING SCA UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN ABOVE 20 KNOTS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
KEEPING SCA CONDITIONS. EXPECT MODERATE WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS LOWERING INTO 7 FEET. SCA MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX...WITH SEAS FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES IN THE NW GULF...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN MOVES INTO THE NW GULF...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RELAX TO AROUND 10KTS...LETTING SEAS RELAX TO 2 TO 3
FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW RH VALUES IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 50 TO 60 PERCENT FURTHER INLAND. POOR
RH RECOVERIES ACROSS THE AREA WILL OPPRESS EVEN MORE DRIER MIN RH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA.  AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TODAY
WITH RELATIVELY TIGHTER GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA WILL SUPPORT N TO NW
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER
60S AND NEAR 70S INLAND WILL SUPPORT FOR LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW
THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND 20S NEAR COASTAL COUNTIES. DUE TO
THE LACK OF RAIN IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS... FURTHER DRYING FUELS OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THIS CONDITIONS...A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS OUT FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  46  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  44  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            72  41  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              75  42  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  38  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  48  61  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
     CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/64



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.