Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 151728 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
mostly clear skies across the CWA early this afternoon. Ceilings
were near 3500ft at KPIL. 500mb ridge across northeast Mexico and
southwest Texas will provide subsidence across the Rio Grande
valley and northern ranchlands the rest of the afternoon into this
evening. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across local aerodromes
through tonight.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across
deep south Texas this morning. VFR conditions will continue
through the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. Light
southeast winds will become moderate to breezy later this morning
into the afternoon. Mostly clear skies and light winds expected to
return by late this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Deep south Texas will
continue to be influenced by 500 mb high pressure, initially over
northern Mexico, and then building east as the shortwave trough
over the Gulf of Mexico fills in. Rain- free conditions and near
to above normal temperatures will continue across the CWA today
through Saturday due to the rather dry atmosphere. Patchy fog will
be possible across the northern ranchlands around sunrise this
morning and again Saturday morning.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday):Mid to upper level
high pressure ridge will spreading over Texas and the Western
gulf through the long term while a subtle surge of tropical
moisture is still indicated by the latest model suite for Sunday
and Monday. The overall synoptic pattern remains unchanged with
model consistency and agreement looking reasonable. Moisture
levels are shown to deepen from the surface to between 700-500mb
with pwats exceeding 2 inches as Pacific and Southern Gulf
moisture surges north from the decaying circulation of Pacific
Tropical Cyclone Max (and maybe some from Norma). Overall rain
coverage is still uncertain with the mid/upper ridge in place
however this moisture is of tropical nature and with light e-ese
surface winds and weak to no cap seabreeze activity could be
enhance especially Sunday and Monday. Rain chances lower slightly
Tuesday and may tapper off below 20 percent Wed and Thu as the
upper ridge becomes centered over South Texas and moisture levels
drop off slightly as subsidence increases. Temperatures to remain
near to slightly above normal with model guidance in very good

MARINE:(Now through Saturday): Favorable marine conditions expected
along the lower Texas coast today through Saturday. High pressure
across the northeast Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to moderate
southeast winds and low seas across the coastal waters through the

Saturday night through Tuesday: Weak surface high pressure will be
centered over the north central Gulf through the weekend and early
next week. Lower pressure will extend across west Texas and the
Southern Plains maintaining a light to occasional moderate
southeast wind and low sea regime.



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