Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 212323 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
523 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHIFTING DIRECTIONS IN THE UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE A BIT.
WIND SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP UP MUCH OF THE
NIGHT UNDER BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND THAT SHOULD MAKE RADIATION FOG
HARD TO COME BY. MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES ON THE 5 PM BALLOON
RELEASE SHOW AN INVERSION AROUND 3000 FT AND AN AREA OF ABOUT 85
TO 90 PERCENT RH BELOW THAT TO ABOUT 1200 FT. MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS WILL KEEP THAT LAYER FROM COOLING TOO MUCH FOR A
FEW HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY A BKN/OVC DECK AROUND 1000 TO 1200 FT AND
UP WILL LIKELY FORM AND PAINTED THAT IN THE TAFS. WITH THE
TURBULENCE FROM THE PERSISTENT WINDS EXPECT CLOUDS VISBY
RESTRICTIONS BELOW THAT WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY TONIGHT...THUS
THE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAFS.

A MODEST IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST TO AROUND 2000 FT LOOKS LIKELY AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BUT A FRONT WILL
BE ON THE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ARRIVING IN THE VALLEY BY AROUND
2100Z AND IFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY...WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BEHIND THE FRONT. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...DEEPENING 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA AGAIN BECOMING MOBILE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITHIN THE BRO CWFA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE AS MAJOR AN ISSUE WITH CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE
WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. NONETHELESS...BRIEF DENSE MAY OCCUR AGAIN NEAR
THE COAST AROUND DAWN. AN ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE THE 500 MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE INTO TEXAS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A GENERAL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BRO CWFA AND THIS HAS BEEN RETAINED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE APPROACH OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPR VALLEY WILL HELP DEFINE A COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE...AND BETTER LIFT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE AS IT
SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURGING HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE TEMPS DECREASE INTO THE MID 40S WITH
MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS...PRODUCING A FEW "FEELS LIKE"
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...FRIDAY MORNING...THE H5
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH...WITH THE SFC TROUGH
ALREADY EJECTING WELL TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN SWIFTLY
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BREAK
UNTIL LIKELY JUST AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL MEAN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER MAINLY BEFORE NOON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S. SKIES WILL
CLEAR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
NEAR 40. WEAK RIDGING TAKING OVER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC...THE WEEKEND WILL BE
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE 60S BOTH
DAYS AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE AS
THE LARGE SCALE CUTOFF LOW SPINS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AREA ARRIVES IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN
CHECK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND NO CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN
THEY WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BY EVENING AND THEN NORTH BY MIDNIGHT...
INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW HOURS OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURGING
HIGH PRESSURE CREATES A TIGHT GRADIENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE WEEK
END UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  74  48  55 /  30  50  40  40
BROWNSVILLE          66  75  48  55 /  30  40  40  40
HARLINGEN            65  75  48  56 /  30  50  40  30
MCALLEN              66  73  48  58 /  30  40  40  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  68  47  57 /  30  40  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  71  49  55 /  20  50  40  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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