Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251735
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS AT BRO...WHICH WILL
REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS VFR. IT IS
BREEZY WITH SE WINDS 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP A STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO END THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED TODAY. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UNDERNEATH A STRONG
SUBSIDENT INVERSION. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP RIGHT AFTER SUNSET
WITH IFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR IS IN PLACE WITH CLOUDINESS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1K
AND 1.5K FEET AND LIGHT FOG. FULL VFR WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS. MVFR IS LIKELY TO RETURN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WEAK 500 MB RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO STRENGTHENING ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS...DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE BRO CWFA THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUES NIGHT.
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FOLLOWING ON SUN.
DESPITE THIS STEADY PROGRESSION OF 500 MB CLOSED LOWS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY LIMITED
OVER THE REGION. THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND. BUT EVEN THIS MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE BEST MOISTURE POOLING WELL NORTH OF THE
BRO CWA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE
BOTH TREND TOWARDS SLGT CHC POPS NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL GO WITH
THIS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING.

WAA WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOW LEVELS THROUGHOUT THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AHEAD OF THIS STEADY PARADE OF 500 MB CLOSED LOWS. THIS WILL HOLD
OVERALL TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7. THE ECMWF AND GFS
TEMP GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TEMPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS DUE TO
THE CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODELS. RUN TO RUN
COMPARISONS WITH THE GFS MEX TEMPS AND POPS ARE ALSO PRETTY STABLE
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE
WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03
CDT/08 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE STEADY PROGRESSION OF 500 MB
CLOSED LOWS TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE LOWS. THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE WINDS AND SEAS TO NEAR
SCEC/SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING CWF PERIOD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE FRI AND SAT WHERE THE
SURFACE PGF IS THE STRONGEST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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