Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 182327 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
627 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR expected to predominate for the next 24 hours. Limited
sea-breeze driven convection of this afternoon has already
dissipated. Breezy winds reported in latest METAR`s should ease
off around sunset. Water-vapor satellite imagery shows next surge
of moisture already approaching BRO from the southeast; an
isolated shower could occur overnight there, but operational
impacts would be negligible. Storms currently 200-300 miles SE of
BRO (over the Gulf of Mexico) likely to send debris cirrus
over the RGV for at least the first part of the night. With the
increase in atmospheric moisture overnight, sea-breeze convection
will probably be a bit more active on Wednesday vs. today, but
currently forecast coverage of showers and thunderstorms does not
merit even mention in a PROB30 group.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): A weak sea breeze will
move west this afternoon and evening, but a paucity of moisture
compared to yesterday has prevented more widespread coverage.
However, current satellite and radar indicate that activity spawned
earlier today over the Southwest Gulf is moving north along the
Northeast Mexican coast. Some of this activity will move into the
area this evening. Some model guidance indicates the return of
moisture tonight and Wednesday, and convection around the area will
likely increase in coverage. Look for mid to upper 70s for low
temperatures tonight and Wednesday night, with mainly 90s for high
temperatures on Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across the
south-central United States Thursday will provide subsidence
across south Texas through the rest of the week into the weekend.
A 500mb low is progged to develop across the northern Gulf coast
Saturday but will likely be absorbed into a 500mb trough
developing across the northeast U.S. Sunday into Monday. Upper
level ridge across north central Texas will dominate the weather
pattern across the CWA through the rest of the forecast period.

MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday night): Light to moderate
southeast winds and low to moderate seas with high pressure in
control across the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible at times across the coastal waters.

Thursday through Sunday...Light south winds will prevail across
the coastal waters Thursday with surface high pressure across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Light south winds will continue across
the western Gulf of Mexico Friday as the pressure gradient remains
weak across the lower Texas coast. Winds will increase slightly
from the south on Saturday as low pressure across the south-
central United States increases the pressure gradient slightly.
Moderate south to southeast winds should prevail across the lower
TX coast through the weekend.




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