Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 161737 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1137 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 1800FT AT KMFE TO NEAR
2800FT AT KAPY. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY HALF WAY THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND STRETCHES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING IT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT CIGS AT VFR WITH VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ONLY AT BRO. NORTH OF THE FRONT A MIXTURE OF MVFR
AND VFR CIGS. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE VALLEY OVER NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS
WILL MOVE IN TO THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. A SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AND OMITTED FROM THE
TAFS. OVERRUNNING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION OF THE FRONT
FROM THE WATERS OFF OF CORPUS CHRISTI SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR
HEBBRONVILLE. THE FRONT THEN SNAKES DOWN INTO JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK GOOD WITH MAINLY 20 PERCENT
FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING THEN CHANCES SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE RIVER. RAISED LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING SLIGHTLY MAINLY IN THE VALLEY WHERE
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THEN
GOING FORECAST.

FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MAKE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 20 KNOTS. CLOSER TO THE COAST WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE LAGUNA JUST UNDER 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED GUSTING TO NEAR 23 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAKING
IT INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. COOLER IN THE RANCHLANDS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO GET GOING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT WITH LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN
THE VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S IN THE
VALLEY TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE RANCHLANDS.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL DRAW UP
OUR FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT PASSING BACK THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIFT
NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF THE SUN IN THE VALLEY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WARM TO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST OF HWY 281 TO
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS ZAPATA COUNTY WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SFC. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR WESTERN
VALLEY...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT LARGESCALE TROUGH SWEEPING
ACROSS TEXAS. MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A HIGH DUG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH IS PLACED WELL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SFC LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES
STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE NOON. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR
WILL PROMPTLY MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS...SHUTTING DOWN POP CHANCES
AND CLEARING OUT SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED SATURDAY TO KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. SFC HIGH
REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ASSESSING BUOY AND PLATFORM DATA
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS BEHIND INBOUND COLD FRONT...DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE LAGUNA
MADRE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK UP
TO 5-6 FEET BY MID MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS RETURNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER ON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGHING STRENGTHENS JUST
OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT TO THE NE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE REGION AROUND NOON.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS
BETWEEN THE FRONT ARRIVAL AND NOON ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WILL LET WINDS RELAX FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.
&&

$$

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