Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 301032
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
432 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): A cold front has nearly passed
through all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this
morning. Breezy northerly winds will prevail across the region today
in the wake of the front. Surface high pressure builds across the
area today resulting in much drier air filtering into the area. High
temperatures will be near normal, climbing into the mid to upper 70s
under mostly sunny skies. Surface high pressure settles across East-
Central Texas tonight before moving east across Louisiana on
Thursday. Clear skies and light winds will allow low temperatures
tonight to fall into the upper 40s across northern ranchlands to
around 60 near the coast. Return flow sets up on Thursday bringing
warmer temperatures and increasing surface moisture. High
temperatures Thursday will generally be the upper 70s to around
80.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): The most significant
changes in the weather pattern for the long term portion of the
forecast is the slower progression of the closed 500 mb low pressure
system into northwest Mexico, and the delayed passage of a cold
front through the BRO CWFA, now anticipated to be closer to Sunday
instead of Saturday. Aside from isolated convection forecast for
Friday night, the time period of Friday through Monday will
feature scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with the
best opportunity for rainfall occurring Saturday night through
Sunday morning as the previously-mentioned cold front works
northwest to southeast through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley. Due to the frontal passage and the expected significant
cloud cover and rain chances, near normal daytime highs and
overnight lows continue to be anticipated.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Thursday): Buoy 42020 reported light
west-northwest winds with seas slightly over 4.9 feet with a period
of 8 seconds at 03 CST/09 UTC. Adverse marine conditions will
develop across the Lower Texas coastal waters this morning due to
the passage of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
until noon today on the Laguna Madre due to strong winds. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect until 6 pm this evening for strong north
winds and hazardous seas. A brief period of gale-force wind gusts
are possible this morning with the passage of the cold front.
Marine conditions expected to gradually improve later this afternoon
into this evening as the pressure gradient weakens as high pressure
settles into the region. Seas may remain elevated across the Gulf
waters through late tonight. Light to moderate northeast winds
tonight will become easterly on Thursday as surface high pressure
shifts east.

Thursday Night through Tuesday: The most adverse marine conditions
will occur Friday though Sunday, with a Small Craft Advisory likely
for all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters, due to an
enhanced surface pressure gradient or passage of a cold front.
Outside of this time period, light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas are forecast.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  61  75  67 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  59  76  66 /   0   0   0  20
HARLINGEN            77  56  77  64 /   0   0   0  20
MCALLEN              79  56  78  65 /   0   0   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  51  78  62 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  65  74  71 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until noon CST today for GMZ130-
     132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Caceres-63
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Brady-62



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