Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 121149 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
549 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...BRO 12z sounding data indicates a strong low level
jet of 40 knots at 1000 feet AGL. Will mention low level wind
shear at all terminals through around 14z. Also added a tempo at
MFE due to mvfr ceilings. Winds will pick up around mid-morning
across all sites, but with a more relaxed pressure gradient, winds
will be slightly lighter than experienced yesterday. VFR
conditions will prevail across the Rio Grande Valley today with
possible MVFR ceilings developing by late this evening into the
overnight hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The pressure gradient will relax
some today as the low pressure system across the Plains weakens.
Moderate to breezy south to southeast winds and warm temperatures
will prevail across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
today. High temperatures today will range from the 70s along the
coast to the low to mid 80s inland under a mix of sun and clouds.
Winds will become more southeast late this afternoon and tonight.
This will allow dew points to increase slightly as Gulf moisture
begins to advect into the area. Isolated coastal showers may develop
tonight and could impact the coastal counties overnight. Therefore,
Will mention isolated pops along the coast after midnight. Low
temperatures tonight will fall into the mid to upper 60s with some
patchy fog possible as winds become fairly light. Warm temperatures
continue Friday with high temperatures away from the coast in the
80s. Will also keep the inherited mention of isolated showers and
thunderstorms for Friday as Gulf moisture increases over the area.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): The main event during
the long term portion of the forecast will be the late Tuesday
passage of a cold front. Scattered showers will occur late Monday
night through late Tuesday night in association with the approach
and passage of the front, with temperatures prevailing at more
near normal values Tuesday and Wednesday due to the front. Outside
of the aforementioned time periods, dry weather with above normal
temperatures courtesy of a breezy onshore flow is anticipated.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds
around 18 knots with gusts near 20 knots and seas near 6.2 feet at
250 am CST/0850 UTC. Surface high pressure across the Northeast
Gulf will maintain moderate to occasionally strong southeast to
south winds and moderate seas. Periodic small craft should
exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will
persist along the Lower Texas coast through the period.

Friday Night through Wednesday: Small Craft Advisory will dominate
through a majority of the forecast period due to an enhanced pressure
gradient and a subsequent late Tuesday passage of a cold front. Wind
and sea conditions will improve to below Small Craft Advisory criteria
on Wednesday as surface high pressure briefly becomes centered over
the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front.




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