Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1144 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Ridge aloft and high pressure at sfc today will keep winds less
than 10 knots and skies clr... VFR flight rules to hold thru the
eve hours at all TAF sites.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/

Weak high pressure has settled over the region with clear skies
and light winds as sfc low moves into the eastern gulf. Today
looking for aftn temps to range from mid 90s along the Rio Grande
to near 80 at the coast. Current zones look fine... no updates
planned at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...High pressure moving across the region today will keep
light winds in place that will slowly veer through the day before
becoming southeast through the end of the period. VFR conditions
are generally expected...although fog may form once again late in
the period reducing visbys.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): High pressure aloft and at the
surface will continue to build across the RGV today. The mid level
ridging will keep northwest flow and strong subsidence over the
region. At the surface...winds will light through the day...with
very dry conditions remaining in place. Temperatures will once run
well above normal...with highs ranging in the upper 80s to the mid
90 across portions of the Upper RGV. In fact...we will likely see
high temperature records broken at Brownsville with high of 90 and
at McAllen with a high of 95. The previous record highs were 87 in
1909 for Brownsville and 93 in 1975 for McAllen.

The surface high pressure will begin shifting off to the east this
evening...with south to southwest winds returning at the surface and
lower levels on Thursday. Meanwhile...the 500mb ridge will be
centered just to the east Deep South Texas...keeping southwest winds
and continued dry air in place. Given the westerly component to the
flow...the downsloping effect from the higher terrain over northern
Mexico will create even warmer conditions Thursday afternoon. There
will be widespread highs in the 90s...with readings right around 100
degrees possible in the river valley areas of Zapata and Starr
Counties. High temperature records will be threaten at all three
airport locations Thursday afternoon...however have kept values just
under record breaking for now.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): A large 500 mb closed
low will prevail over the central Plains states late Thurs and Fri
eventually moving off to the east as an open wave reaching the
Great Lakes region on Sat. This will maintain a fairly dry and zonal
500 mb pattern over the RGV throughout this weekend. The passage
of the closed 500 mb low to our north will push a mild cold front
through the region on Fri ushering a little cooler and drier air
over the region this weekend. A pretty deep 500 mb trough will
then dig into the western states early next which may push another
mild cold front through the region potential increasing the pops a
bit next week as some decent moisture values pool just ahead of
this front. Overall temps will remain above climo through all of
the longer range forecast period with the ECMWF maintaining its
usual warmer bias versus the cooler GFS numbers. Will lean closer
to the ECMWF numbers for highs and will go close to a model blend
for lows through Tues. For pops will maintain silent 0-10% pops
throughout the upcoming period which is in line with both of the
longer range models pops.

MARINE (Now through Thursday): Buoy 42020 is report light SW
winds of around 8 knots with wave heights less than two feet early
this morning. High pressure will keep light and variable winds in
place through the day. The high will shift east tonight with
winds veering and eventually becoming SE around 10 to 15 knots by
Thursday afternoon. Seas will remain low today...and low to
moderate Thursday.

Thursday Night through Sunday Night...The mild fropa expected on
Fri may push the winds and seas up close to SCEC criteria through
Fri Night and Sat. The returning southeasterly flow this weekend
due to the development of a series of surface lows across the
Midwest may then push the winds and seas across the lower TX Gulf
waters back up close to SCA with the worst marine conditions
expected late Sat Night through Sun Night when the PGF is the




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