Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 081143 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING WITH
SOME FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A LITTLE LESS
MOISTURE TODAY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TODAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...BROAD MID
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE NORTH GULF...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE INITIALLY...
AS A WEAKNESS WILL TEND TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
PART OF THE CAUSE OF THE WEAKNESS WILL BE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT EVEN AFTER THAT LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TAKE
THEIR TIME SHIFTING WEST INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. IN ANY CASE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC...I.E. SOUTHEAST...FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEST GULF AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

MORE STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ALSO INCREASE POP CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FARTHER INLAND THURSDAY...PARTLY SEA BREEZE GENERATED...BUT ALSO
FROM SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. PWAT WILL
SOAR BACK UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES THURSDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXTRA CLOUDS KEEPING A LID ON
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...IN THE 90S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DROP OFF ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPS TRENDING SLOWLY UP IN THE NOW DRIER AIR MASS. BY SATURDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...EVEN PROBABLE...WHICH WILL
ALSO BE THE CASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTH
EAST WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTN ON THE LAGUNA MADRE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACTIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND STUBBORN GULF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SOME OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE STABLE PATTERN TAKES OVER. MDT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL...LOWERING A BIT ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  92  78  91  78 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  93  77 /  10  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            94  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN              95  77  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  76  97  76 /  20  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  88  79 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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